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Sunday, October 5, 2008

Electoral Vote Update 10-5-2008

George Wenschhof

I began a weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from, three weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the first of three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, and the resulting Bailout bill.

It is too early to judge the impact of the vice-president debate, but there is no question, the economic troubles facing voters today are associated with Republicans and this is benefiting the Obama campaign.

This week, Obama has pulled out ahead with 338 electoral votes to McCain with 185. The state of North Carolina with 15 electoral votes is tied. This is a gain of 70 electoral votes for Obama over the last three weeks. The pick ups for Obama from last week are Nevada, Ohio, and Florida with a combined 52 electoral votes.

The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below have been reduced to eight from ten last week. Minnesota and New Hampshire moved into a more solid Democrat state, but all of the 17 states listed below are still fluid.

Note, that of the eight too close to call states, McCain is only leading in two; Indiana and Missouri. In addition. no state indicated as Democratic three weeks ago has changed to Republican. While five states indicated Republican three weeks ago have changed to Democratic with another former Republican state North Carolina, now tied.

Also note how quickly Obama's lead grew in just three weeks. There are 30 days to go until Election Day so more changes lie ahead. The next two presidential debates will have an impact on the undecided voters and another unpredictable circumstance, such as the Wall Street melt down, could still occur. Negative advertising will most likely be ramped up as well over the remaining four weeks.

Here is a view of swing states over the preceding four weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5

Washington - (11), D-D-D,D
Colorado - (9), D-D-D*,D*
Minnesota - (10), D-D-D*D
Michigan - (17), D-D-D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D

Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*
Virginia - (13), R-R-D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5

Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D

West Virginia - (5), R-R,R
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5

Missouri - (11) R*,R*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*

Stay Tuned. We will provide another update next Sunday.


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