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Monday, April 13, 2015


The 2016 race for president is officially underway now that former secretary of state Hillary Clinton made her run official with an airing of a 2 minute video on social media Sunday around 3:00 PM ET.
This approach was made to highlight a more personal message from Hillary to voters.
In her 2008 presidential announcement, the message was more that she was adorned the Democratic Party nominee with her statement “I’m in it to win it”.
This time, Hillary did not appear until the last 30 seconds of the 2 minute video.  Her youthful and energetic appearance coming after several couples discussed their dreams.  Women issues, a Hispanic couple, a same sex couple and an African American couple were all highlighted followed by Hillary saying she was going to start a listening tour and ending with her saying “I want to earn your vote”.
Off to Iowa her campaign will go to begin the six week tour before a more formal announcement and rally takes place the end of May.
Mainstream media has been waiting impatiently for this announcement.
Hillary, already the leader in polls by a huge margin among Democratic wanabees for president, will now have to earn voters support by what she says and does over the next 18 months.
The opposition Clinton will face in her campaign for president is weak among Democrats and Republicans.
While a contested primary is generally a good thing as it makes a candidate articulate their positions on the issues, there just is no serious Democratic contender.  Former Governors Lincoln Chafee (Rhode Island) and Martin O’Malley (Maryland) are not registering in the polls and there is no reason they will as time goes by.
Former Virginia senator Jim Webb would certainly be an interesting candidate.  But, it is doubtful he has the fire in his belly to do so.
Instead, it will be Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren and to a lesser extent economist Robert Reich who will influence the Democratic Party nomination.  Warren’s influence will not come as a candidate, but as a senior spokesperson in the U.S. Senate.  Reich’s from his closeness to the Clinton’s (he served as Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton’s administration) and his position as chair of Common Cause, a group that also supports much of the change that Warren calls for.
Their influence was noticeable in the 2 minute Hillary Clinton announcement video.  After the couples filmed previously in the video talked about what their needs and desires were, Hillary spoke to the issue of inequality, saying “Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times, but the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top.”
The huge income gap between the few percent at the top and the rest of Americans has been stressed by both Reich, who produced a movie “Inequality for All” and Warren.
The Republican Party looks hopelessly caught in an earlier time and out of touch with the reality of today, making their prospects for a victory in 2016 very daunting.
Hillary Clinton, in a 2 minute video touched women (a major voting block), African Americans (who traditionally will vote Democratic), Hispanics and same sex voters.
That leaves aspiring Republican candidates to focus on White male voters; a losing proposition in today’s politics.
The huge number of 20 possible Republican candidates also reflects a fractured party, lacking in leadership and the ability to reach consensus on issues.  Their war hawkish approach to Iran and opposition to the nuclear treaty being negotiated by the Obama administration is also out of touch with American voters, where 60% of Americans favor reaching an agreement with Iran and avoiding war.
It is, of course, way early to make predictions.
However, it was this time prior to the 2012 election I predicted the candidates would be Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney.  I also correctly predicted Romney would lose convincingly to Obama.
This longer and more low-key roll out of the Hillary Clinton campaign is a good approach for someone who is already well known by voters.
With a heavily financed and well organized campaign, look to see Clinton emerge as the Democratic candidate.
Her likely Republican opponent for president will be well known Jeb Bush who also has a strong financed and organized campaign.
The 2016 vote margin will be closer than Obama vs. Romney, but I see Hillary Clinton earning the votes to become the first women elected president of the United States.
Stay tuned.