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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Electoral Vote Update 10-19-2008

George Wenschhof

I began a weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from, five weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, Bill the plumber and desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.

Voter polls by have indicated all three Presidential debates and the vice-president debate were won by Obama-Biden ticket. Meanwhile, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.

This is the fifth straight week of electoral vote gains votes for Obama. He now has 364 to McCain with 171 with 3 Tied. The state of Missouri with 11 electoral votes is now Democratic - it was tied last week. West Virginia with 5 electoral votes went from Democratic last week to weak Republican. Also, North Carolina (15) went from Republican last week to Democratic and North Dakota (3) went from Republican to a tie. In fact, this is the first time North Dakota has made this list. This is a pick up of 21 electoral votes for Obama since last week.

The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below have increased from seven to eight this week. Virginia moved into a more solid Democrat state, but all of the 18 states listed below are still fluid.

Note, that in the eight "too close to call" states, McCain is only leading in two; Indiana and W. Virginia. It is possible in the scenario listed below, for Obama to lose the two pivotal states in the 2000 and 2004 elections; Florida and Ohio and still handily win the election.

Also note how Obama's lead grew in the last five weeks. There are now only 16 days to go until Election Day so time is beginning to work against the McCain campaign. However, the impact of Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader on the ballot along with the 5-6% undecided voters is still unknown.

There also always remains the possibility of some unpredictable event transpiring that would affect the race, such as some international incident.

Here is a view of the swing states over the preceding five weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15
10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11
10-19-2008 McCain 171, Obama 364, Tie 3

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12, 10-19

Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*,D
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D,D

Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*,R*
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*
Virginia - (13), R-R

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19

Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D,D

West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D,R*
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19

Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*,D*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*,D*

New Battleground State 10-19

North Dakota - (3) Tie*

Stay Tuned. We will provide another update next Sunday.


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