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Sunday, October 26, 2008

Electoral Vote Update 10-26-2008

George Wenschhof

I began a weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from, seven weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, William Ayers, Joe the Plumber and more desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.

Voter polls by indicated all three Presidential debates were won by Obama and pundits agreed Biden beat Palin in the only vice-president debate. Meanwhile, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.

This is the sixth straight week of electoral vote gains votes for Obama. He now has 375 to McCain with 157 with 6 Tied. He picked up 11 electoral votes as Indiana moved to Democratic.

The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below still number seven, the same as last week. However, the states are different. Indiana moved from weak Republican to solid Democratic while Ohio moved from weak to solid Democratic. The two new states too close to call are Montana which is a tie and Georgia which is weak Republican.

Note, that with only nine days to go to the election, in the seven "too close to call" states, McCain is only leading in one; Georgia. .
Four years ago on this date, had the electoral vote at 247 for John Kerry and 285 for George W. Bush with Arkansas (6) Tied.
Presently, Ralph Nader is polling around 2% and Bob Barr about 1%. Some polling data show the undecideds are now around 3%.
There always remains the possibility of some unpredictable event transpiring that would affect the race, such as some international incident.
At this point, twenty states remain in play. However, time is working against the McCain campaign. Expect the electoral vote to narrow when we publish next Sunday, two days before the election.
Here is a view of the swing states over the preceding seven weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15
10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11

10-19-2008 McCain 171, Obama 364,Tie3
10-26-2008 McCain 157, Obama 375, Tie 6

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12, 10-19, 10-26

Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*,D,D
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D,D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D,D,D

Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*,R*,D
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D
Virginia - (13), R-R

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26

Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D,D,D

West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D,R*,R
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26

Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*,D*,D*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*,D*,D*

New Battleground State 10-19,10-26

North Dakota - (3) Tie*,Tie*

New Battleground State 10-26

Montana - Tie*
Georgia - R*

Stay Tuned. We will provide our last update next Sunday 11-2-2008 and make a prediction.


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