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Sunday, October 12, 2008

Electoral Vote Update 10-12-2008

George Wenschhof

I began a weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from, four weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had two of the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, and desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.

Voter polls have indicated all three debates so far have been won by the Obama-Biden ticket. While, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.

This week, Obama remains ahead with 343 electoral votes to McCain with 184. The state of Missouri with 11 electoral votes is now tied. This is a gain of 5 electoral votes for Obama over last week. The pick up for Obama from last week is West Virginia with 5 electoral votes. North Carolina went from a tie last week to Republican and Missouri went from Republican to a tie.

The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below have been reduced to seven from eight last week. Virginia moved into a more solid Democrat state, but all of the 17 states listed below are still fluid.

Note, that in the seven "too close to call" states, McCain is only leading in two; Indiana and North Carolina. More important, no state indicated as Democratic four weeks ago has changed to Republican. In addition, another former Republican state Missouri, is now tied.

Also note how Obama's lead grew in the last four weeks. There are now only 23 days to go until Election Day so time is beginning to work against the McCain campaign. However, the impact of Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader on the ballot along with the 5-6% undecided voters is still unknown.

The last presidential debate will be on Wednesday October 15 and the pressure is on McCain to deliver a solid win. We will live-blog during the debate here on Air-it-Out with George. It begins as 9:00 PM ET and will be televised on cable channels CNN and MSNBC.

There also always remains the possibility of some unpredictable event transpiring that would affect the race, such as some international incident.

Here is a view of the 17 swing states over the preceding four weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15

10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12

Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D

Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*
Virginia - (13), R-R

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12

Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D

West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12

Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*

Stay Tuned. We will provide another update next Sunday.


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