George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Des Moines, Iowa - it was his win in the Iowa caucuses that began his march to the Democratic Party nomination. He will also appear in Highland, Indiana and Chicago, Illinois. While home briefly in Chicago, the question is, will he go trick-or-treating with his daughters? Biden is in Newark, Delaware; Kettering, and Lima, Ohio. I have a funny memory from Newark - when attending a wedding of a best friend from College, the boys and I had taken the Groom out for a ride prior to the wedding - my car broke down and we had to walk to a farmhouse for assistance - no cell phones then - we arrived at the Church, barely on time.
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Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.8% - is the RealClearPolitics.com poll average. This was taken from ten polls from 10-25 to 10-30-2008. You can read more details here.
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Two Red states now tied - underscoring the difficulty McCain is facing in winning the election. North Carolina is tied at 48% and Missouri is McCain 50% and Obama 47%. Politico.com has more here. Arizona, McCain's home state has also become a battleground with McCain only leading by 53% to 47%. CNN.com has more here. Today, Obama campaign manager, David Plouffe announced they were adding Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona to their ad buys. ThePage.time.com has more here..
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59% say Palin not qualified to be VP - is what a NY Times/CBS poll indicates. The poll also indicated 12% who were surveyed had already voted with Obama receiving 51% to McCain with 40%. The NY Times has more on the poll here.
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McCain campaign effort of throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks is not working - Republican strategists say the mixed messages being offered by McCain has made it difficult for voters to tune into any coherent message. TheHill.com has more here.
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Wednesday night was a big night for the Obama campaign - first,the 1/2 hour infomercial aired, then President Clinton appeared with Obama in Kissimmee, Florida at a rally followed by an appearance by Obama on "The Daily Show" with Jon Stewart. Joan Walsh of Salon.com has a great read here.
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Friday, October 31, 2008
Dem Campaign Chatter 10-31-2008
Vote "Yes" to Question #1 on MD Ballot
George Wenschhof
Two years ago, I explored a run for Maryland state senate in district 3. Prior to withdrawing from the race, I expressed my position on voting rights. While Maryland does not currently provide for early voting, today it is underway in 34 states with a estimated 200+ million voters eligible. By voting "Yes" to question # 1 on the ballot, you will amend the state constitution and allow the General Assembly to pass early voting provisions for the state of Maryland. The following was my position on this issue two years ago and remains so today:
On the Issue of Voting Rights
The right to vote is the cornerstone of American democracy.
Nothing is more basic to our democratic form of government
than making sure that every adult has full opportunity to exercise his or her right to vote,
and that those votes are counted fairly and accurately.
A new Federal law established provisional voting in the 2004 election. Under that law, a person whose identity or eligibility to vote is in question may vote on a ballot that is kept separate in a sealed envelope; the envelope is opened and the ballot counted only if the local Board of Elections looks into the facts and determines that the person is in fact entitled to vote.
The Maryland General Assembly passed the Voters Rights Protection Act of 2005 to improve the procedures related to provisional ballots. Governor Ehrlich vetoed this bill, citing concern over possible irregularities if voters were allowed to cast provisional ballots outside their home precinct.
Yet in the 2004 election at least five states, including Pennsylvania, allowed voters to cast provisional ballots outside their home precinct, without irregularities. I believe that Maryland election officials are at least as capable of determining a voter's eligibility as those in Pennsylvania. The governor's concern is unwarranted. If the ballot is cast in a different district, the votes are counted only for races in the jurisdiction where the voter resides.
The Maryland General Assembly also passed legislation to establish early voting during the week before Election Day, and to remove the requirement that a voter state a reason in order to vote by absentee ballot. The governor's veto messages on these bills expressed concern about possible implementation problems or irregularities. But in fact both are becoming standard practice in other states.
Twenty-three states have some form of early voting before Election Day, and thirty states do not require voters to state a reason to vote by absentee ballot (sixteen of those states do not require the absentee ballot to be witnessed or notarized). The State Board of Elections' new statewide online voter database can be used to make absolutely certain that no person votes more than once.
One issue remaining for the Maryland General Assembly to address this year is the need to add a paper trail to electronic voting machines so voters can be certain that hackers cannot commit election fraud by tampering with the voting machines.
Too often we take the right to vote for granted. It is the mainstay of our democratic form of government. We must be vigilant in protecting our voting rights and in updating our laws so that every person who is eligible has an opportunity to vote.
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Thursday, October 30, 2008
Watch Obama Interviews Tonight
George Wenschhof
Barack Obama is not slowing down with five days to go until Election Day. In addition to being in Florida, Missouri, and Virginia today, he finds time to sit down for two interviews.
The first is with Brian Williams of NBC "Nightly News" and will air approximately at 6:30 PM ET. Watch some of the interview here. The second interview will be on MSNBC with Rachel Maddow on her new show "The Rachel Maddow Show" which begins at 9:00 PM ET. I have found Ms. Maddow to be another of the smart and quick witted political analysts on MSNBC along the lines of Chris Matthews of "Hardball" and "Countdown with Keith Olberman". Watch some of the interview here.
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Maryland Democrats Support Early Voting
George Wenschhof
Today, events will be held in Annapolis and Largo, Maryland to urge voters to vote "Yes" on Ballot question #1. This action is necessary to amend the Maryland state constitution to allow for the General Assembly to pass early voting provisions.
Maryland is one of the few states that does not provide for early voting. Georgia had 21% of their registered voters cast a ballot on Monday, their first day of early voting. Today's events and times are as follows:
IN ANNAPOLIS at 9:30 am:
Governor Martin O'Malley, Speaker Michael Busch, Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger and Del. Sandy Rosenberg will join Party Chair Mike Cryor in Annapolis to urge Marylanders to vote "Yes".
IN LARGO at 12:00 noon:
Senator Ben Cardin will stand with Senators Nathaniel Exum, Anthony Muse, David Harrington and County Delegation Chair, Del. Barbara Frush, and campaign volunteers at the Maryland Democratic Party Campaign '08 offices in Largo, Maryland.
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Dem Campaign Chatter 10-30-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Sarasota, Florida, Virginia Beach, Virginia and Columbia, Missouri - Biden is in Arnold, Missouri, Williamsport and Allentown, Pennsylvania. Virgina Beach was a favorite vacation spot for my family when I was a little boy. The fact both Obama and Biden are in Missouri is very telling as it is now a toss-up state.
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Clinton helps to close the deal in Florida - late last night in Kissimmee, Florida, former President Bill Clinton and Barack Obama appeared together for the first time at a campaign event. I stayed up to watch and Clinton did not disappoint. In his down to earth manner, he spelled out why Obama is the best candidate for President. Whether it was his philosophy where he believed in redistribution from the bottom up, his policies which were on the right course for the economy, education, health care, and energy, his decision making - look at his VP pick and his reaction to the economic crisis, or his abilities - look at how he has run this campaign. Clinton was a hard act for Obama to follow. Read more here.
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Obama 50.1%, McCain 43.7% - RealClearPolitics.com national poll average from ten polls taken from 10-23 to 10-29-2008. Read more details here.
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CNN/Time Battleground State Polls - taken from 10-23 to 10-28-2008. Read more here.
Pennsylvania: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
North Carolina: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Nevada: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Ohio: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
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Exxon Mobile hit record quarterly profit - third quarter earning were reported as 14.8 Billion. CNN.com has more here. If there ever was a reason to have government regulation - this is it. This is the same quarter where the U.S. economy has it's largest drop in seven years and consumer spending was down. The NY Times has more here. It is definitely a time for a change.
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2008 presidential campaign also impacts newswomen - the campaign has been known for plenty of firsts, including the first African-American Presidential nominee of a major party. Senator Cinton's strong battle for the Democratic Party nomination along with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as the Republican Party VP has generated incredible interest across the country. Rebecca Traister writes a column in Salon.com about how this race has impacted reporters Katie Couric, Rachel Maddow and Campbell Brown. You can read it here.
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Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Obama Infomercial - Wow!
George Wenschhof
Powerful and moving are the words that come to mind after watching the thirty minute paid TV spot by the Obama campaign.
The argument for change was made by families across the country who were highlighted over the course of this half hour program. The families shared their experiences that many families across the country also have today in a troubled economy.
Throughout the program, Obama would explain his plan to address the issue brought up by a family. Included was a segment on how he will be tough on defense.
Obama spelled out his program for the economy and concluded with a live segment from a rally in Florida. Here he said "we needed to focus on hope over fear, unity over division and change over the status quo. We are one nation and one people". He finished with asking for your vote.
ThePage.time.com has a video and transcript here.
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Attend a "Last Call for Change" Obama House Party Tonight
George Wenschhof
Tonight, House Parties in support of Barack Obama will be occurring all across the country. Supporters will gather at a neighbor's home to watch Senator Obama's prime time presentation beginning at 8:00 PM ET. They will also be calling voters in battlegrounds states. It is easy to find a House party near you. Just click on this link and enter your zip code for one near you.
Barack Obama will address the public for thirty minutes beginning at 8:00 PM ET. It will be broadcast on NBC, CBS, FOX, MSNBC, Univision, BET, and TV One. He is expected to focus on the economy. Interestingly, today is the 79th anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash. Make sure you tune in to watch his presentation.
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Dem Campaign Chatter 10-29-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Raleigh, North Carolina and Kissimmee, Florida - He will be joined by former President Bill Clinton tonight at an event in Kissimmee. Biden is in Sunrise and Jupiter, Florida. Michelle Obama is in Rocky Mount and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
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Battleground Polls continue to favor Obama - AP/Gfk polls taken from 10-22 to 10-26 show Obama up in the following states: New Hampshire +18, Pennsylvania +12, Nevada +12, Colorado +9, Virginia +7, Ohio +7.
Quinnipiac Polls taken from 10-22 to 10-26 show the following: Pennsylvania - Obama 53% and McCain 41%, Ohio - Obama 51%, McCain 42%, and Florida - Obama 47%, McCain 45%.
ThePage.time.com has more details here.
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Wow! Huge early voting numbers in Georgia - a state that has just recently been classified as "weak" Republican has 21% of their registered voters vote on Monday, the first day of early voting. In spite of reported kinks at the voting polls, 1.2 million of the registered 5.6 million voters cast their ballots. CNN.com has more here.
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Federal Reserve expected to cut rates to 1% today - this will follow similar action by other countries around the world. Reuters.com has more here. The Dow is down about 70 in the early going today after gaining 800 yesterday.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Dem Campaign Chatter 10-28-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Chester, Pennsylvania and Norfolk, Virginia - Biden is in Ocala and Melbourne, Florida. Michelle Obama is in Springs, Colorado. Michelle has become a "not so secret" powerful speaker on the campaign trail. The NY Times has more here. She was great on the "Tonight Show" last night. You can watch it here.
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Obama 50.3%, McCain 44.1% - is today's RealClearPolitics.com national poll average. This is an average of nine polls taken from 10-22 to 10-27. It is likely that Barr and Nader will garner 2-3% of the vote which means the undecideds are now down to approximately 3%. You can read more here.
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Democratic strategists offer last week advise to the Obama campaign - Salon.com has a very interesting read by Thomas Schaller who interviews three Democratic strategists on what to do in the last week of the campaign. He discusses this with Kenneth Baer, a former speechwriter for Al Gore, Laurie Moskowitz, who ran the national field operations for the DNC in the 2000 election, and Steve McMahon,a senior adviser to Howard Dean in the 2004 campaign. You can read it here.
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Alaska Republican Senator Ted Stevens found guilty - of seven felony charges of failing to report over $250,000 in gifts. Prior to this notoriety, his claim to fame was the infamous Alaska "Bridge to Nowhere". Pundits are now speculating as to whether this will help Democrats reach a filibuster proof 60 seats in the Senate. TheHill.com has more here.
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Stocks may be set for surge today - the Dow dropped 203.18 yesterday to close at 8175.77, a five year low. Oversea markets were trading up and US Futures were up indicating the Dow will gain today. Read more here.
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Dougherty Win Doubtful in MD 6th District
George Wenschhof
November 4, 2008 will mark the ninth election since Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett was elected in the 1992 election to represent the residents of the 6th District in Maryland. His Democratic opponent that year was Thomas Hattery who had defeated seven term incumbent Beverly Byron in the Democratic primary. Byron's defeat in the primary was due in part to some Democrats feeling she was too moderate along with criticism directed at excessive overseas travel made by the incumbent.
Jennifer Dougherty is the eighth Democratic candidate (Don DeArmon ran twice) to have challenged Roscoe Bartlett since that 1992 election. Bartlett has survived all of the challenges easily since defeating Hattery with 54% of the vote in the 1992 election. In fact, the strongest showing by a Democratic candidate was by Stephen Crawford, who received 43% of the vote in the 1996 election.
I wrote about the Maryland 6th District race prior to the 2006 election when Andrew Duck was the Democratic candidate. I pointed out the local Frederick County Democratic Party was splintered, bruised and battered as a result of the 1992 election and that many maintain it remains so today. I also pointed out how Andrew Duck was working to build bridges and unite the Democrats in that 2006 election.You can read that column here.
Mr. Bartlett is now 82 years old as we near his attempt to win his ninth consecutive term. This, after pledging in his first race for Congress that he believed in term limits for members of the House. Over sixteen years in office, Mr. Bartlett has little to note in accomplishments, yet he has received positive feedback for his constituent services.
Nonetheless, the chances for a Dougherty win remains slim, in spite of all the elements of a "perfect storm". I published a column on this back on July 17. In case you missed it, you can read it here. All of the essential elements are in place to remove an incumbent as the financial meltdown on Wall Street continues along with the continued U.S. presence in a unpopular war in Iraq. This, combined with the enthusiasm generated by the Presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama has resulted in increased voter registration across the district showing a marked advantage to Democrats.
Unfortunately, the Dougherty campaign has been unable to raise the needed funds to get the message out. Consequently, it is difficult to determine what is the message of the campaign, other than to piggyback on the Obama campaign "Change" theme. The September 30 - Third Quarter Financial Reports showed the campaign with only $27,000 cash on hand compared to $374,000 for the Bartlett campaign. You can read that report here.
The local state central committee has never had any power over who may decide to run for office. In addition, there is no reason why they would attempt to dissuade a former multi-term and popular Democratic Mayor from entering the race.
After losing the Democratic primary, Ms. Dougherty made no visible effort to support the election of Ron Young and many speculate she encouraged supporters to vote for the Republican candidate, Jeff Holtzinger. Holtzinger won a close race against Ron Young and is mayor today.
Months after the election, many say she encouraged supporters to attempt to oust Bob Kresslein as Chair of the Frederick County Democratic State Central Committee. That effort, by a few extremists in the Party failed and ironically, Dougherty is now seeking and receiving support from Mr. Kresslein who is still chair of the local central committee.
Seven years ago, after spending two years helping to rebuild the Frederick County Democratic State Central Committee organization, I managed the committee's efforts in the 2001 City of Frederick campaign.
Many firsts were achieved as we put on the first formal primary debate which was held at Hood College which I had asked Al Weinberg to moderate. The questions came from precinct chairs who had been recruited in the preceding two years. I had intensified fund raising efforts resulting in $10,000 earmarked for the city campaign. An amount that was not spent previously or since by the committee on the City of Frederick campaign.
In addition, we held the first campaign rally the Sunday before the election to generate enthusiasm among Democratic voters. I was able to secure as headline speakers Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and Maryland Attorney General Joseph Curren. The entertainment was O'Malley's March who were joined by Martin O'Malley when they performed. A good time was had by all who attended this rally.
One memory I hold from that election is on her victory night, she stood up on her bar at Jennifer's Restaurant to inform everyone she had won. When she had stepped down she had not thanked any of the central committee members, precinct chairs, and volunteers who had worked on her behalf. I walked over to quietly suggest a thank you was in order and she then climbed back on the bar to do so.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) which raises millions and sizes up House races across the country is hoping for gains of as many as 40 seats come November 4. In Maryland, they have targeted the 1st district race which is classified as "open" due to Republican Wayne Gilchrist's defeat by Andrew Harris in the primary. Frank Kratovil, the Democratic candidate has made it to the DCCC's coveted "Red to Blue" List, which will ensure funds added to the $173,000 cash on hand reported by the campaign as of September 30. The total raised by Kratovil has been 1.5 million compared to his Republican opponent Andrew Harris who has reported 2.6 million raised with $586,000 cash on hand. You can read the details here.
To date, Jennifer Dougherty has not received the same designation from the DCCC or any significant funds from them. A rumored "snap poll", not a totally reliable source, was recently released with headlines stating Dougherty was within 6 points of Bartlett. The numbers were Bartlett 45%, Dougherty 39% with 16% undecided. The numbers in the poll curiously mirror the voter registration numbers for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in the district. At this late date, it is very doubtful 16% of the voters are undecided. These type of "snap polls"are sometimes released with the hope media will publish them and some enthusiasm for the trailing candidate will be created.
While there is no doubt it is time for a change in the 6th District, doubt remains among many Democratic voters in the abilities of Jennifer Dougherty to build consensus and create needed positive change. In order to win, Dougherty needs a high turnout of Democratic voters who will vote for her, a majority of the Independent vote along with some Republican crossover vote. This is a daunting task.
There is no doubt Maryland will vote overwhelmingly for Senator Barack Obama for President. In fact, for weeks now, Maryland volunteers from across the state have been canvassing in Pennsylvania and Virginia to help in these battleground states.
However, it is doubtful Obama's support in the 6th District will be strong enough to carry Dougherty to victory on Election Day.
Yet, it is not over until the close of the polls on Election Day. Remember to vote on November 4th!
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Monday, October 27, 2008
Dem Campaign Chatter 10-27-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Canton Ohio - He will deliver a speech at 12:30 PM ET which the campaign is saying is his "closing argument". CNN.com has more here. ThePage.time.com has excerpts from the speech here. Obama then travels to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Yesterday in Colorado, Obama drew crowds of 100,000 in Denver and 45,000 in Fort Collins.
Biden will be in Greenville, North carolina and New Port Richey, Florida. Michelle Obama is in Burbank, California and Las Vegas, Nevada. While in Burbank, Michelle will appear on the "Tonight Show" with Jay Leno. Watch tonight at 11:30 PM ET.
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Washington Post Poll has Obama up by 8 in Virginia - The poll was conducted 10-22 to 10-25-2008 and showed Obama 52% and McCain 44%. Virginia has not voted Democratic since the 1964 election. The Washington Post has more here.
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Anchorage Daily News endorses Obama-Biden - the largest newspaper in Akaska says Palin "too risky" to be step away from President. You can read more here.
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Gallup.com has a good read today on late upsets - It is entitled "Late Upsets Are Rare, but Have Happened". The article points out that only twice in the last 14 elections has a candidate trailing in the polls at this date, go on to win the popular vote. Only one, Ronald Reagan in 1980 went on to win the popular vote and the electoral college. You can read the column here.
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In Illinois, speculation begins as to who will replace Obama in the Senate - if Obama is elected President, the most favored names so far are Illinois Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr. and Jan Schakowsky. Governor Rod Blagojevich would make the appointment. TheHill.com has more here.
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Dow Jones expecting a bumpy ride today - oversea markets dropped and were expected to impact the Dow as it opened today. As of 10:56 AM ET, there had been a modest drop of 52.33 and the Dow stood at 8326.62.
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They Can’t Win . . . If We are Not Afraid
Ken Kerr Bio
In 1991, there was a movie starring Albert Brooks and Meryl Streep titled, Defending Your Life. It was a little two-star movie with a four-star theme.
Daniel Miller, played by Albert Brooks, dies in a car accident sent to Judgment City, a waiting area for the recently deceased of the United States. He, like everyone else is put on trial for "being afraid." Day after day goes by in a court room setting where he is made to watch himself controlled by fear, lacking courage, and making bad decisions as a result. In Judgment City, he meets and falls in love with Julia (Meryl Streep), a woman who lived a seemingly perfect life of courage and generosity, especially compared to his.
His fear caused him to lead a meaningless life. He is sentenced to be recycled back to earth to live another life time to see if, this time, he can overcome fear. Julia, having overcome fear, gets to move on.
That is where we are today. We, as a nation, are on trial to see if this year we will continue to let our fear control us. For the past eight years—who knows, maybe longer than that—we have been controlled by a government kept in power by keeping us afraid.
Our fears have caused us to make some very bad decisions—indefensible decisions. The War in Iraq, the election and re-election of Bush, the PATRIOT Act, domestic spying, refusing to talk to our enemies . . . you can probably add a few of your own.
For better or worse, fear is powerful and as basic to human survival as air and water.
There is a part of your brain, the stem, that exists solely for survival called the "reptilian" brain. This is the original part of the brain. As we evolved, our brains evolved, and other parts were added, for example, the limbic system which deals with emotions and the cerebellum which is the thinking part. This stem of the brain is securely protected by the rest of the brain. When all other parts of the brain are non-functional, this part will still be working, ensuring survival.
When our limbic system experiences the emotion of fear, the reptilian brain goes into action and the rest of the brain pretty much shuts down. While in the emotional state of fear, we have two choices and everything we do will be based on one of those choices: fight or flight. The body goes into survival mode. Everything becomes black or white, yes or no, good or evil, live or die.
In this fear state, human beings do not have the ability to think of alternative solutions, to behave rationally—only run or fight.
Our current government keeps us in a constant state of fear—Code Orange, take your shoes off at the airport, "real America." Now John McCain has only that one trick left in the bag—FEAR. We need to vote for McCain because Obama is (in hockey terms) just too doggone scary, doggonit!
What we need to fear is the erratic, questionable judgment of McCain and his hand-picked successor. We need only to look at the Republican rats deserting the SS McCain, their resumes flooding the mail rooms of the Fortune 500. They know there will be no jobs for them in the West Wing. They fear.
At the end of the Movie, Brook's Dan Miller character, seeing he would lose Julia forever, was able to overcome his fear, risked his own existence, and was released from the eternal cycle of fear-loss-rebirth-only-to-fear-again.
Let's be Dan this year. Let's find the courage to fight the fear, to overcome our reptilian origins and act like rational human beings. Let's imagine a world where there are alternatives, where it is not black and white, good and evil. Let's find the courage to find real solutions, not just make the best of a bad situation.
Let's vote hope—not fear.
The most famous "fear" quotation comes from Franklin D Roosevelt's inaugural address in 1933. We often repeat the sound bite, but we rarely hear it in context. And it is the context that is relevant to our time:
"This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days."
Think about that . . .Leadership in critical days.
On November 4Th, I am giving my reptilian brain the day off. My cerebral cortex will be casting my vote.
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Sunday, October 26, 2008
Dem Campaign Chatter 10-26-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Denver and Fort Collins, Colorado - Biden is back home in Wilmington, Delaware.
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Obama 49%, McCain 44% - Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll released today. Reuters.com has more here.
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Obama campaign begins airing new ad entitled "New Subject" - hits McCain hard on the economy, pointing out the McCain campaign said if the election was about the economy, McCain would lose. As he runs out of time, he tries to change the subject by attacking Obama. Obama ends up with saying it is time for a President to change the economy, not change the subject. You can watch it here.
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Saturday Night Live continues their parodies of the election - they spared no one, poking fun at Barack and Michelle Obama, Biden, Rep. Murtha (D-Pa.), et. al. You can watch a clip here.
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Former President Bill Clinton to campaign with Obama in Florida - after the bitter and close Democratic primary election, many wondered how and if the Democratic party would come together. Both Clintons gave excellent speeches at the Democratic Convention and have campaigned for Obama. This will be the first appearance of Bill Clinton and Obama together - Florida is a good place for this to happen. If Obama wins Florida, it will be extremely difficult for McCain to win. CNN.com has more here.
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Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle rumored to be considered for Obama White House Chief of Staff - certainly a knowledgeable person on the ways in Washington. The former Senator from South Dakota has been a supporter of Obama since the beginning. The Baltimore Sun has more here.
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Electoral Vote Update 10-26-2008
I began a weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from electoral-vote.com, seven weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, William Ayers, Joe the Plumber and more desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.
Voter polls by Gallup.com indicated all three Presidential debates were won by Obama and pundits agreed Biden beat Palin in the only vice-president debate. Meanwhile, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.
This is the sixth straight week of electoral vote gains votes for Obama. He now has 375 to McCain with 157 with 6 Tied. He picked up 11 electoral votes as Indiana moved to Democratic.
The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below still number seven, the same as last week. However, the states are different. Indiana moved from weak Republican to solid Democratic while Ohio moved from weak to solid Democratic. The two new states too close to call are Montana which is a tie and Georgia which is weak Republican.
Note, that with only nine days to go to the election, in the seven "too close to call" states, McCain is only leading in one; Georgia. .
Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15
10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11
10-19-2008 McCain 171, Obama 364,Tie3
10-26-2008 McCain 157, Obama 375, Tie 6
Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12, 10-19, 10-26
Democratic
Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*,D,D
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D,D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D,D,D
Republican
Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*,R*,D
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D
Virginia - (13), R-R-D*,D*,D,D,D
New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26
Democratic
Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D,D,D
Republican
West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D,R*,R
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*
New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26
Republican
Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*,D*,D*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*,D*,D*
New Battleground State 10-19,10-26
North Dakota - (3) Tie*,Tie*
New Battleground State 10-26
Montana - Tie*
Georgia - R*
Stay Tuned. We will provide our last update next Sunday 11-2-2008 and make a prediction.
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Saturday, October 25, 2008
Dem Campaign Chatter 10-25-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is back on the trail - after a visit with his ailing grandmother who helped to raise him - the NY Times has a good read here. He is in Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada. Then heads to Albuquerque, New Mexico. Biden is in Suffolk, Virginia.
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Obama 53%, McCain 41% - Obama maintains double digit lead in this Newsweek Poll taken 10-22 and 10-23. You can read more here. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today has it Obama 51%, McCain 42%. You can read more here.
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Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) surges in Minnesota 6th District congressional race - this after Michele Bachmann, the Republican incumbent stepped in it big time on "Hardball" with Chris Matthews. On the show, last Friday, Bachmann, sounding like former Senator Joseph McCarthy, said Obama and his wife Michelle had anti-American views. Since then, Tinklenberg has raised 1.45 million and the DCCC has earmarked another 1 million to the race. You can contribute to her campaign here. We owe a thank you to Chris Matthews for exposing to the rest of the country that Michele Bachmann is unfit for office.
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What does Lieberman say about Sarah Palin? -"Thank God she's not going to have to be president from Day One. McCain's going to be alive and well." It looks like Joementum will not be welcomed by the Republicans as well as the Democrats after this statement to reporters. Read more here.
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The Obama grassroots campaign organization is very strong - 770 field offices across the country direct canvassing and phone call operations. Read more here.
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Obama campaign releases new ad - it is entitled "Defining Moment". Obama explains his programs and in a former President John F. Kennedy like statement says it is not just whether you will be better off than you were but will the country be better off than it was. You can watch it here.
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Sunday Morning "Talking Heads" 10-26-2008
George Wenschhof
Ten days and two Sunday mornings with political pundits before Election Day. The economy continues to be the number one issue for voters as the Dow fell 312.30 yesterday to close at 8378.95. The McCain campaign continues to throw everything it can think of at Obama with none of it apparently sticking.
It will be hard this Sunday morning to top the endorsement of Obama by former Secretary of State, Colin Powell last week on "Meet The Press". McCain will appear on "Meet The Press" and the usual suspects are the guests on the shows this Sunday. Check your local listings for time and channel - Here is the lineup:
NBC "Meet The Press" - Tom Brokaw will interview Senator John McCain from Waterloo, Iowa. The roundtable discussion will include Chuck Todd, Kelly O'Donnell, and Charlie Cook.
ABC "This Week" - George Stephanopoulos interviews former General electric CEO, Jack Welch. He will also have Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The roundtable will have Sam Donaldson, George Will, Peggy Noonan, and Cokie Roberts.
CBS "Face The Nation" - Bob Schieffer has Robert Rubin, former Treasury Secretary and economic adviser to the Obama campaign. Also Doug Holtz-Eakin a senior adviser to the McCain campaign. The dueling Governors will be Ed Rendell (D-Pa.) and Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn).
Fox News Sunday - Chris Wallace will have former Governor Tom Ridge (R-Pa.) and Governor Tim Kaine (D-Va.). Also former George W. Bush White House adviser, Karl Rove.
CNN "Late Edition" - Wolf Blitzer will have Senators Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) along with Representatives Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-Fla.) and Heather Wilson (R-NM).
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Friday, October 24, 2008
Campaign Chatter 10-24-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Honolulu, Hawaii visiting his ill Grandmother - Biden is in Charleston and Martinsville, West Virginia. Michelle Obama is in Columbus and Akron, Ohio.
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Obama 50.2%, McCain 42.8% - a 7.4% advantage for Obama is the RealClearPolitics.com national poll average. This is the average of 15 polls taken from 10-16 to 10-23-2008. You can read the details here.
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NY Times endorses Obama - In their editorial, they highlight the strengths of Barack Obama and describe him as cool headed with sound judgement. They are critical of the erratic and opportunistic actions by McCain, including the pick of Sarah Palin who they say is unfit for Vice-President. You can read their editorial here.
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Former Bush White House press secretary, Scott McClellan endorses Obama - add him to the growing list of former George W. Bush administration officials who are endorsing Barack Obama. CNN.com has more here.
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Wall Street Meltdown continues - stock index futures were down so much at one point this morning they were frozen. At the opening of the Dow, it was around 8200 with the drop at the opening bell around 400. All the negative activity as a result of the worsening global economic situation. Reuters.com has more here.
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Tina Fey is joined by Will Ferrell on SNL - they were great once again last night on the last Thursday special before the election. Ferrell, of course played George W. Bush who was endorsing a reluctant to receive it, McCain. Tina Fey? well she was awesome! Watch it here.
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Hope vs. Fear
Ann-Marie Luciano Bio
Nothing could illuminate the steadiness of Barack Obama's message of hope and change better than John McCain's dizzying campaign of fear and innuendo. It is pretty incredible that for all of McCain's talk about the "unknowns" of Obama's judgment, the past 20 months of campaign seem to have shown us that we can never really know the true John McCain, since who he is changes with the day and the polls.
It really has been astonishing to watch the McCain campaign unravel since their convention. A campaign once grounded in "Straight Talk" and full and thorough access by the press has morphed into a shadow of its former self: "Straight Talk" has been replaced with negative "ads" that have been described as outright "smears" and "lies" and the Vice Presidential candidate has been hidden away from the inquiries from the most serious media outlets.
Whenever I listen to a McCain or Palin speech (I'm a news junkie even for the bad news), I find myself waiting to hear the positive message. Over the past few weeks, the McCain campaign message has been Why You Shouldn't Vote for Obama rather than Why You Should Vote for McCain. Does anyone really know anymore whether McCain/Palin have a positive vision for the future? If they have one, I haven't been able to hear it through all of the noise about Socialists, palling around with terrorists and Joe the Plumber. After their first attempt at negative ads with Bill Ayers caused them to drop in the polls even further, I thought maybe McCain would go back to his Straight Talk and start talking about the issues on the merits again. Apparently his campaign has taken over the candidate, because there is no sign left of the old John McCain.
When the news flips to a few minute clip of an Obama speech, I often find myself coming to tears, filled with excitement and hope about the great things that could happen if he is elected. Obama's speeches are all about what he will do for Americans. His focus is on explaining to the American people what he wants to do to improve our lives and livelihoods. The contrast is so clear to me. If Obama is elected, I hope we will turn a new page in election politics to a time when leaders lead with hope rather than rally mobs with fear.
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To receive "Daily Updaes" from Air-it-Out with George by email or reader, click on "Subscribe to this feed below".Thursday, October 23, 2008
Ron Howard Endorses Obama
George Wenschhof
Film Director Ron Howard has made a fun video in which he endorses Obama for President. With the help of make up, he takes some of us back to our early childhood TV days. Playing "Opie", he is joined by Andy Griffith, in the familiar fishing scene. Later in the video, playing "Richie Cunningham" he is joined by Henry Winkler -"The Fonz". You can watch the video here.
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Dem Campaign Chatter 10-23-2008
George Wenschhof
Today, Obama is in Indianapolis, Indiana - He has an early morning rally and then he is of to Honolulu, Hawaii to visit his ailing grandmother. He will return to the campaign trail on Saturday. Biden is in Charlotte, Salem and Raleigh, North Carolina.
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Obama draws 35,000 in Leesburg, Virginia - This is a state that has not voted Democratic in over 40 years. I could tell he was going to have a good crowd - after I posted information on the rally I received from a friend Tuesday night, the site received record visits by 8 AM the following morning. Obama was quoted as saying this looks like the "real Virginia" to me. An obvious reference to Republican comments about real America. Polls released yesterday showed Obama with a ten point lead over McCain. CNN.com has more here.
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Quinnipiac University Polls show Obama lead in swing states - the polls were conducted from 10-16-10-21-2008 and have a margin of error of 2.6 to 2.7 points. McCain must win Florida and Ohio to be competitive on Nov. 4. Read more here.
Florida: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Ohio: Obama 52%, McCain 38%
Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
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Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Obama ahead in all states - University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted the poll from 10-19 to 10-22-2008. Read more here.
Illinois: Obama 61%, McCain 32%
Indiana: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
Iowa: Obama 52%, McCain 39%
Michigan: Obama 58%, McCain 36%
Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 38%
Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, McCain 41%
Wisconsin: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
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Former NY Mayor Rudy Giuliani joins in on the negative robo-calls - at one point he says Obama opposes mandatory sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers and murderers. You can read more and listen to it here.
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Foreclosures up 21% from one year ago - the economy remains the focus for Americans. Reuters.com has more here.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Obama Holds Lead in Red States
George Wenschhof
The 50 state strategy of the Obama campaign continues to play havoc with Republicans and the McCain campaign.
Time/CNN poll conducted 10-19 to 10-21 among likely voters showed the following:
Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
In a rebuke of the nasty campaign tactics by the McCain campaign, the majority of the voters in Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio said they were familiar with Ayers and Acorn and it will not affect their vote. ThePage.Time.com has more here.
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Stocks Drop - It's a Stupid Economy
George Wenschhof
The Dow Jones fell another 514.45 to close at 8519.21. Third quarter losses at Wachovia, Yahoo and AT&T fueled recession fears. Wells Fargo still plans to acquire Wachovia despite their reported 23.9 Billion loss in the third quarter. Some market analysts are now saying the Dow is close to the bottom. CNN.com has more here.
Meanwhile, President Bush invites world leaders to Washington for an economic summit to begin on November 15. This will be following the election, so let's hope the president-elect is Obama and he is invited. Read more here.
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Palin Says VP in charge of Senate - Huh?
George Wenschhof
In another one of those embarrassing "got ya" moments, reminiscent of former Republican Vice President Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin answers a question from a Third Grader. The question was "What does a Vice-President Do?" CNN.com has the Colorado TV station KUSA video here.
Governor Palin answered in part with the VP is in charge of the Senate. Last night on MSNBC "Countdown" with Keith Olbermann, Olbermann had fun with her answer. You can read as well as watch his response here.
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