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Monday, February 4, 2008

Which Democrat Will Win Tomorrow?

George Wenschhof

The battle by the candidates for the Democratic Party nomination has now turned into a two person race. Although former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel has not dropped out of the race, the competition for votes is between Senator Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) and Senator Barack Obama (Illinois).

Only four primaries have been held so far (Michigan and Florida held primaries but had their delegates stripped by the DNC) with twenty-two states set to vote tomorrow. Trying to analyze the projected breakdown of the vote on Super Tuesday would give even the more seasoned political operative a mi-grain.

One thing is fairly certain and that is women will be the majority of the voters participating in the democratic party primaries tomorrow. It is estimated that women will make up as much as 57% of the total democratic vote.

In the Iowa caucuses, the youth vote along with the women vote carried Obama to a win. In New Hampshire, the youth vote tailed off and more women voted for Clinton. In the Nevada caucuses, it turned out to be a draw. S. Carolina was a rout in favor of Obama so with data from only four states it is hard to make predictions on the outcome in 22 states.

However, it was not by happenstance that the Obama campaign had Michelle Obama, Caroline Kennedy, Oprah and Maria Shriver campaigning for Obama in California over the past weekend. A state with 441 delegates where Clinton had double digits leads just two weeks ago and is now a statistical dead heat.

A CNN Poll
released today shows that Obama has eroded the huge national lead Clinton had held since the beginning of the primaries. Obama is now winning with 49% v. 46% for Clinton, a statistical tie.

A USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted 1-30 through 2-2 shows Clinton - 45% and Obama - 44% The good news for democrats in this poll is the majority of the voters indicated they would support whoever the nominee is in November. Click here to read a complete breakdown of the poll:

In an article published today in the New York Post entitled "Hillary's Losing Women" by Kristen Powers she talks about a gallup poll showing Clinton had dropped 8 points and Obama had picked up 13 points among women voters. Click here to read:

Sally Quinn writes in the Washington Post "A campaign of Her Own" where she talks about how Senator Clinton should ease her husband and former President out from the forefront of her campaign. Makes you wonder if Al Gore knew what he was doing when he did not ask Bill Clinton to campaign for him. To read the entire article click here:

What does all of this mean? It means that women are very engaged in politics and their vote is important. It also appears that they will be voting for the candidate they feel is best qualified to be President and not voting on gender alone.

It is doubtful the outcome of tomorrow's primaries will determine the democratic party nomination for President. The wins by each candidate and the number of delegates awarded will be scrutinized following Super Tuesday. The democratic party nomination process will continue and that is a good thing for the voters in all the states should have the opportunity to weigh in and have their vote count.

I started off less than a week ago guessing the delegate split to be 60 - 40 in favor of Clinton. I now have to say it looks like 50 - 50.

The biggest winner when the primaries conclude and a nominee is chosen for the democratic party will be the American people. Voters will have a choice for President a Woman or a African-American for the first time in the history of our nation. A candidate for President who recognizes that change and new direction is needed in our country.

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