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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Results and Comments

I will try to enter the winner and delegates awarded as the information becomes available and I have time to enter the data. Remember, the Democrats award delegates proportionally - some for winning the state and others by winning districts within the state so the number won by candidate will be known late tonight or tomorrow morning. Total delegates indicated after the type of voting (primary or caucus) in each state includes super delegates.

(W)= Win, (L)= Loss, (#) = delegates won ------Clinton------Obama

Alabama - Primary - 60 delegates - Obama - (W)

Alaska - Caucus - 18 delegates - Obama - (W)

American Samoa - Caucus - 9 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Arizona - Primary - 67 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Arkansas - Primary - 47 delegates - Clinton - (W)

California - Primary - 441 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Colorado - Caucus - 71 delegates - Obama - (W)

Connecticut - Primary - 60 delegates - Obama - (W)

Delaware - Primary - 23 delegates - Obama - (W)

Georgia - Primary - 103 delegates - Obama - (W)

Idaho - Caucus - 23 delegates - Obama - (W)

Illinois - Primary - 185 delegates - Obama - (W)

Kansas - Caucus - 41 delegates - Obama - (W)

Massachusetts - Primary - 121 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Minnesota - Caucus - 88 delegates - Obama - (W)

Missouri - Primary - 88 delegates - Obama - (W)

New Jersey - Primary - 127 delegates - Clinton - (W)

New Mexico - Caucus - 38 delegates

New York - Primary - 281 delegates - Clinton - (W)

North Dakota - Caucus - 21 delegates - Obama - (W)

Oklahoma - Primary - 47 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Tennessee - Primary - 85 delegates - Clinton - (W)

Utah - Primary - 29 delegates - Obama - (W)

Democrats Abroad - Primary - 11 delegates

Both campaigns are now saying today's outcome will be close and some pundits are predicting the difference in number of delegates won will be less than 100. Some have also said to look to see the caucus states going to Obama and Clinton winning California, New York, and New Jersey. The latest gallup poll today shows Clinton leading with 47% and Obama with 42%

If true, this would indicate a larger margin of victory for Clinton today. The votes are what counts and we will soon see how the outcome.

The exit polls in Georgia show Obama with 86% of the Black vote and 43% of the white vote. This is significant for he doubled his support with white voters from S. Carolina. Could also show that Edwards supporters are trending to Obama. Let's see how this plays out in the rest of the states.

Another interesting exit poll stat - Hispanic Vote - Clinton - 61% Obama - 38% Clinton needs this support, especially in California. The support of Ted Kennedy has helped Obama narrow this margin.

Yet another exit poll - this one on age - Obama wins age 50 and under, Clinton wins over age 50 More exit polls on race and gender. As i indicated in an earlier post 57% of democratic voters were women - the breakdown by candidate - 51% Clinton and 45% Obama - This is a strong showing by Obama. The male breakdown of the vote was Obama - 53% and Clinton - 42%. The Black vote was 80% for Obama and 17% Clinton. The White vote was 51% for Clinton and 44% for Obama - another strong showing here for Obama.

Both campaigns will claim a strong showing today. It is now 11:30 PM and it appears that the ones who were saying the delegate count would be close and within 100 may be right - we are not going to know until tomorrow. The early predictions that Obama would win the caucus states also appears to be correct. Clinton will talk about winning NJ, Mass., NY, and possibly Calf. Obama will talk about winning coast to coast. Keep in mind the super delegates which are about 20% of the total delegates available have been heavily courted by the Clinton campaign - they may end up being pivotal in determining the nominee.

While the spin masters will be at work tomorrow, the story of how Obama went from being behind in double digits in national polls just a week ago to possibly winning the delegate count today is the real story.

Wednesday morning at 8 AM still finds both campaigns counting delegates. It appears the early projections of a close race for delegates between the two candidates on Super Tuesday was an understatement. Some have the diference in delegate count to be a half dozen or less - it will be later in the day before we know for sure. CNN is projecting a total primaries to date count as follows: Clinton - 632 Pledged, 193 Super for a total of 825 delegates Obama - 626 Pledged, 106 Super for a total of 732 delegates. The race for the democratic nomination will certainly continue on for some time with the magic number of delegates needed to win the nomination being 2025. How about a convention that actully means something? Stay tuned - Maryland, D.C., Virginia are up next on the 12th.

It is now noon on Wednesday - New Mexico is tied. has a list of the delegate count. They have 900 - Clinton, 824 - Obama Click here to read their data.

9:00 PM Wednesday (the day after Super Tuesday) the above link will show Clinton - 1012 Obama - 933 The difference between the two coming from the super delegate count: Clinton - 211 Obama - 128

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