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Sunday, February 10, 2008

Momentum with Obama

George Wenschhof

After four wins across the country and the Virgin Islands yesterday the momentum is with Obama. The delegate count from yesterday is continuing but it appears that Obama has pulled within 25 delegates of Clinton. If you subtract the super delegates, Obama has the lead in winning delegates from the voters.

Today, Maine holds it's caucuses with a total of 34 delegates at stake, of which ten are super delegates. Then it is on to the crab cake primaries held on Tuesday the 12th when Maryland - 99 delegates, Virginia - 101 delegates, and D.C. - 37 delegates hold their primaries.

The Clinton campaign is already talking about primaries in Ohio - 161 delegates and Texas - 228 delegates on March 4th where they believe they will do well. However, Clinton needs to stop the roll Obama is on if she hopes to win by any substantial margin in Ohio and Texas on March 4th. They have to hope for a win today even though there are few delegates at stake and she has to hope for a win in Virginia even if the delegate split is minor to blunt the momentum going to Obama.

Maryland Governor O'Malley's support of Clinton will help her in this state and keep the delegate split close, but Obama will win. D.C. is heavily favored to go to Obama and it appears Virginia will be close.

After the crab cake Tuesday primaries, the delegate count will most likely continue to be within 25 delegates between the two candidates. Then it is on to primaries in Hawaii - 29 delegates and Wisconsin - 92 delegates on the 19th before we get to Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

The speeches given by the two candidates at the Virginia J/J Dinner were both good last evening with Obama receiving the loudest applause and giving a longer speech. The themes are staying the same with the Clinton campaign touting she is ready to lead from day one and the Obama campaign focusing on the time for change.

Both candidates have reported raising huge sums of money since super Tuesday - the Clinton campaign released they had raised over 10 million since the 5th and the Obama haul was 7.5 million several days ago so it is sure to be higher by now.

The moves made by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to set the primary schedule, determine the delegate award process, and to sanction and disenfranchise Michigan and Florida voters are under more scrutiny then ever. The democratic voters do not want the nominee chosen by super delegates.

As Oliver used to say to Stan -"This is a fine mess you've gotten us into".

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