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Sunday, February 3, 2008

Super Tuesday Poll Talk

As we all know by now, polls are not always accurate, but they do show trends.

Wow! A new Rueters/CSpan/Zogby poll through yesterday has Obama over Clinton in California 45% - 41%. This is a state that Clinton has lead by substantial margins for some time. She has spent considerable money and time in California so a loss here would be a blow to her campaign even if she picked up a similiar number of delegates as Obama for the average voter will pick up on who won the state. Click here to see the latest California polls on

As to the national polls, the Washington Post has a poll today showing Clinton - 47%, Obama - 43% which with the margin of error is a statistical tie. It was only a few weeks ago that Clinton led by double digits across the country. To read more national polls, click here:

A few days ago I said if I had to guess on the split of delegates on Super Tuesday, I would have it 60% Clinton and Obama - 40% It appears if if the momentum is trending toward Obama. The ads the Obama campaign are running in the Maryland metropolitan area are powerful and if he is doing the same across the country as his ad buys indicate, this is certainly having a positive effect.

The Clinton campaign which is relying heavily on established and institutional support that went to former President Bill Clinton is still a force to be reckoned with. Today, I would still have Clinton ahead in delegates but I would now guess Clinton - 53% and Obama - 47%

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