Don't Count Hillary Out

George Wenschhof

The wild and crazy Democratic Party primary season continues and Senator Hillary Clinton is working hard to show no signs that her campaign is on the ropes.

She and representatives of her campaign persist in their efforts to have the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated at the Democratic convention when it convenes in August in Denver. It's a good argument for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) should not have taken punitive action against these states, that in effect disenfranchise their voters.
http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/polldancing/2008/02/hillary-seat-michigan-florida-delegates.php

There are a total of 366 delegates in Florida and Michigan and they equal 9% of the 4,049 delegates up for grabs in the Democratic Party nomination process. The candidates agreed not to campaign in these states, but to ignore and not count such a large number of delegates in such a close nominating process would be a travesty. A do-over primary in these states could yet still happen and the results could determine the nominee.

Here are the latest RealClearPolitics.com numbers on the delegates won so far:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Senator Barack Obama has opened up about a 100 total delegate lead that includes super delegates: 1374 - 1275. Interestingly, 375 of the 797 available super delegates have not been recorded as to which candidate has their vote.

The four states holding primaries on March 4th have a total which includes super delegates of 444 delegates: Texas - 228, Ohio - 161, Rhode Island - 32, Vermont - 23. Senator Clinton does not have to win big in Ohio and Texas as many pundits have claimed but she does need to win to counter the momentum Senator Obama has built. The Clinton campaign just needs to stop the inevitable tag some have placed on Obama and wins, regardless of the margin, in two large states will do that. The Clinton campaign will then be able to hammer on the point that Obama has been unable to win the big states the Democrats must win in November.

Without a clear winner following the March 4th primaries, it is doubtful either candidate will be able to obtain the necessary 2025 delegates to win the nomination. This is because only a little less than 750 delegates will be available for the candidates to win in the remaining primaries which conclude in Puerto Rico on June 7th.

Both campaigns are continuing to report large campaign contributions so it is unlikely lack of funds would cause either candidate to drop out of the race. This could easily lead to do-over primaries in Michigan and Florida in the middle of June. So the Clinton campaign's insistence that these states have their delegates seated at the convention could turn out to be a very wise strategy.

Meanwhile, Clinton has gone on the offensive accusing Obama today of taking a page out of Carl Rove's play book with misleading mailings on her position on universal health care and NAFTA to voters in Ohio. http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/clinton_obama_is_untested_just.html