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Friday, August 15, 2008

Will Obama-McCain Be Another Close Election?

George Wenschhof

With all the bad news, why is the race this close? - there are only 80 days to the general election and today has a polling average from 7-31 to 8-14 showing a four point lead for Senator Barack Obama. Obama has 45.5% and McCain has 41.5% which is basically a tie when you take into account a 4 point margin of error. Today, the daily Gallup tracking poll has it Obama 46% and McCain 43%.

The economy is failing with too many home foreclosures, energy prices are soaring, many Americans are without adequate health insurance, military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan continue, yet American voters appear reluctant to change. Typically, when all these factors are present in an election, voters tend to vote for a change. has a good read here.

Over the last 40 years, only two Democrats have been elected President of the United States. They were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Even the electoral map continues to be close with today showing Obama with 275, McCain with 250 and 13 Ties. The number needed to win the election is 270.

If the Democrats lose this Presidential election, major changes should occur within the Democratic Party organization and Leadership. The primary has already exposed the many flaws that exist in the Democratic Party nomination process.

The elections of 2000 and 2004 were close with many voters still doubting the outcome of the 2000 election. Will the 2008 election continue this trend?

Stay tuned.

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