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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Electoral Vote Review Shows Obama/McCain in Dead Heat

George Wenschhof

Senator Barack Obama and his campaign have been touting a 50 state strategy. This is basically the same theme former Vermont Governor and current chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean has been pushing since his unsuccessful run for the nomination in 2004.

The jury is out as to if this is a wise strategy. Current polling shows up to 26 states are in play today with showing the electoral vote at Obama - 264, McCain - 261 and Ties - 13. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.

The Obama campaign certainly is raising the money needed to compete in 50 states, but some pundits view this strategy as spreading the campaign too thin and exposing it to losses in states they should win. Time will tell on this score. breaks down each state as Tied, Barely Republican or Democrat (within 4%), Weak Republican and Democrat (within 5-8%), and Strong Republican or Democrat (over 8%).

There are presently 14 states with a total of (99) electoral votes classified as "Barely". These battleground states are: Barely Dems - MN (10), N.H. (4) and Barely GOP - Nev (5), MT (3), N.D. (3), S.D. (3), Co. (9) OH (20), N.C. (15), Fla. (27).

The 12 states currently classified as "Weak" have a total of (161) electoral votes. They are: Weak Dems - OR (7), NM (5), IA (7), Wis (10), Mich (17), NY (31), Pa. (21) and Weak GOP - Mo. (11), IN (11), WV (5), Ga.(15), and AK ( 3).

Virginia, with 13 electoral votes is the state that is presently tied. The states classified as Strong Dems equal 134 electoral votes and the states classified as Strong GOP equal 131 electoral votes.

So, the next 101/2 weeks is where the political strategists for each campaign will be earning their bucks. The 26 states classified as "Barely" or "Weak" have a combined total of 260 electoral votes out of the 538 total electoral votes.

These figures will change as circumstances evolve surrounding the campaign. We will keep an eye on these states and give you updates prior to Election Day in November.

Stay Tuned

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