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Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Up Dates From New Hampshire

George Wenschhof

I will post results here as I receive them. Share your predictions and your thoughts as the returns come in by clicking on the comment link at the end of this post.

A huge effort is being made to keep Exit Polls from being reported until after the polls close at 8:00 PM. This is a good thing for we always want a high turnout of voters and we don't need rumors as to what the potential outcome is effecting the turnout.

These exit polls will probably be reported by all the major TV News after 8:00 PM. You can follow the returns on many of the news channels and also online at

However, exit polls are still taking place and one statistic I have heard that I will share is that the Independents is splitting 60-40 in favor of Democrats.

Wapo is reporting that Maggie Williams has been hired to coordinate the Clinton campaign -

Former Secretary of State Republican Colin Powell spoke glowingly today about Barack Obama but stopped short of an endorsement. Remember, Powell was hung out to dry when he delivered the case against Iraq and their possession of weapons of mass destruction to the UN by the Bush administration.

6% being reported: Obama-36%, Clinton-36%, Edwards-17%, McCain-38%, Romney-29%, Huckabee-11%

7:55 PM 10% reporting: Clinton -38%, Obama-36%, Edwards-17% Richardson-4%, McCain-37%,Romney-28%, Huckabee-12%, Giuliani-9%, Paul-8%

Clinton needs to have these numbers hold and put a boost back into her campaign.

8:12 PM - MSNBC has called it for McCain with only 12% in - They have projected him the winner at 37% and Romney at 28%

McCain resurrects his campaign and has to hope money comes pouring in for he has no campaign staff or resources to pay for media buys in upcoming states. Huckabee is projected a third above Giuliani but he also needs $ and staff. Romney who does not have likeability going for him has the $. Remember the Republicans have primaries that count in Michigan on the 15th and Florida on the 29th while the democrats had their delegates stripped in those states by the DNC - will this be a negative for the Democratic candidates? You bet ya! on the other hand the Democrats get a breather.

14% Clinton-40% Obama-36% Edwards -17% Richardson -4% 2000 votes seperate clinton and Obama at the moment. Clinton has increased her lead but I do not have data as to what precincts are being reported - ie-rural or urban centers. Remember she has huge institutional support in this state.

Unite Here, a Union representing 450,000 Hotel and textile workers is set to endorse Obama tomorrow -

24% reporting - Clinton-40%, Obama-34%, Edwards-17%, Richardson-4%
32% reporting - Clinton-40%, Obama-36% Clinton's campaign startegy over the last several days of hammering away against Obama's experience seems to have had an impact. But remember this was always Clinton's firewall after Iowa.

McCain just gave his victory speech - hardly one that will go down as stellar.

44% reporting - Clinton-39%, Obama-36%

Donna Brazile, former advisor to President Bill Clinton has just taken Bill to task with Wolf Blitzer concerning Bill's comments about Obama lack of experience.

Some early exit polls show women voting higher for Clinton 47% v. 34% for Obama - opposite of Iowa

54% reporting Clinton-39%, Obama-37% Clinton has maintained her lead all night so it appears it will be difficult for Obama to overtake her - it still boils down to the precincts reporting but Obama has never lead tonight.

This will help Clinton, however if it stays at a 3-4 point margin it will not equal Obama's 9 point win in Iowa. The Obama campaign will say they took the Clinton campaign's best shots at them and still came in a close second. Looks like a real race for the Democrats.

10:19 PM Elizabeth Edwards gives a great introductory speech for her husband John. He gave his congrats to both Clinton and Obama. He then said it was 2 states down and 48 to go - then he went into his stump speech-those with and those without. I wonder how long he can stay in - probably for sure until S. Carolina but without a victory there or Nevada - how does he compete on super Tuesday on Feb. 5th when over 20 states hold their primaries?

Will anyone drop out after today? Hunter for sure and perhaps Thompson on the Republican side. On the Democrat side Gravel-0% and Kucinich-2% should withdraw.

10:30 PM MSNBC has projected Clinton as the winner with 66% of the precincts reporting 39% - 36% The 13 point edge Clinton received from women voters over Obama contributed to her win.

75% precincts - 39%-Clinton, 36% Obama - Obama is now addressing his supporters - congratulated Clinton on a hard fought victory. 4 weeks ago no one would have imagined what we did here today - we knew the climb would be steep-something is happening in America - youth turnout is great because they believe something is happening - change is what is happening in America. "Yes We Can" was the theme of his speech and it was another powerful one - will try to post tomorrow if I can locate it on Youtube.

Now it's on to Clinton to hear her victory speech - She is saying that over the last week she listened to them and she found her own voice. Let's give America the kind of comeback New Hampshire has just given me. The campaign is about making a difference in people's lives. Time we had a President that stands up for you, believes in a can do spirit- we are in it for the long run and in it for the American people. Restore America's credibility around the world. Tomorrow, we will roll up our sleeves and keep going - I invite you to join us. A good speech.

It will be interesting to see the headlines tomorrow. Clinton did win but she was always expected to win the nomination and had the heir apparent label projected upon her campaign early. She will use the comeback kid story and a huge upset story (according to the latest polls) which is hardly appropriate after just two primaries. Remember I warned people about putting too much stock in the Polls and in my earlier post today and I said Clinton would run a competitive race today for she had the institutional Democratic support. She had double digits leads in New Hampshire just one week ago so winning by only 3 points is bittersweet for her campaign.

The other story continues to be Obama and the electricity of his campaign of hope for America.

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