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Thursday, January 3, 2008

And...., They're Off and Running!!!!

George Wenschhof

I know live coverage is on MSNBC, and probably all TV News will have updates. I noticed will have a tally sheet online.
Who will win, place and show for the Democrats and the Republicans? The Polls say Obama, Clinton and then Edwards.

If the Biden and Richardson campaigns did cut a deal with the Obama campaign to have their supporters switch to Obama if they failed the 15% threshold, this along with Kucinich's support should put Obama in first. Richardson may surprise with a third or strong fourth place finish if his knowledgeable, steady approach while staying away from the fray of the top tier candidates appeals to the Iowa voter.

What are your predictions?

The follow up question is who will drop out after Iowa?

I predict both Biden and Dodd unless either one manages to finish a strong fourth. They are life long Democrats in office and will realize it's time to get out. Is Gravel even still in this race? Kucinich, although he has honorable and strong positions on the issues should also realize he is not receiving enough support.

What are your thoughts?

I believe there is a Debate scheduled for Saturday night prior to the New Hampshire primary. Who will be attending that Debate?

8:15 PM est - early reports are showing some precincts reporting three times the number of voters from 4 years ago -Who are they supporting is the question at this point. But 3xs the number of voters from 4 years ago is significant.

8:40 PM EST - only 4% precincts edwards-37%, Clinton-32%, obama-29% richardson-3%

8:52 PM - 24% precincts reporting - Edwards -34%, Obama-32%, Clinton-32%

NBC has just called the Republican Winner - Huckabee if this holds true - where does this leave Romney?

9:00 PM 39% Precincts reporting - Obama-33% Edwards -32%, Clinton-32%

9:14 PM 56% Precincts reporting Obama-35%, Edwards-32%, Clinton-31%

9:26 PM NBC calls Obama Winner with 71% precincts reporting Obama-35%, Edwards-31% Clinton-31%

9:30 PM 75% precincts reporting - Obama-36%, Edwards-31%, Clinton-31%

Looks like Romney and his millions did not work in Iowa with the Republican voters-How will he fare in New Hampshire?

9:43 PM 87% Precincts reporting - Obama -37% Edwards -30%, Clinton-30%
This is a huge win for Obama and shows the crediblity of his campaign. The battle now is who claims second place. Clinton has definitely been damaged. Edwards has kept his campaign alive. Obama and Edwards are both change candidates and Clinton is more status quo and these results tells us people want a change.

I have to add Richardson to the Democratic candidates who should drop out after Iowa. Although he received 2% and Biden 1% and they are both good men, they have to see the writing on the wall. They can be of help to the eventual nominee.

10:00 PM - 92% Precinct reporting - Obama - 37%, Edwards - 30%, Clinton - 30%
Supposedly, Clinton is about to make a statement. She needs to make a good one for her veil of inevitabilty has disappeared.

10:18 PM - Elizabeth Edwards just introduced her husband and pointed out they were outspent 6-1 in Iowa and still came in second. John Edwards is speaking strong of the need for change and is talking about those without health care and those who are without. The future primaries will be about who the voters feel is best to lead our country in this change. An excellent speech about the time and need for a change.

With 97% precincts reporting - Obama - 38%, Edwards-30%, Clinton -29%
Still waiting to see what clinton has to say.....

Hillary Clinton is now speaking with husband Bill by her side and also former secretary of state Madeline Albright standing with her. talking about her being the candidate being able to go the distance and being able to be president on day one- still using the experience factor. Now talking about always wanting to run a national campaign - says she is ready for the rest of the campaign. She had better be for she just came in third. The latest slogan is Americans need a President who is their champion and she wants to be their champion. No words from husband Bill and no smiles either.

On the Republican side with 78% precincts reporting - Huckabee-34%, Romney-25%, McCain and Thompson-13%, Paul -10%. Giuliani who skipped campaigning in Iowa received 4%. Look for Romney in spite of his own personal wealth to be damaged heavily here. It will now be McCain and Huckabee, neither of whom have any significant campaign chests or organizations against Giuliani.

Hillary Clinton is the biggest loser tonight. Her frequent campaign statements about her being used to fighting the Republicans is not what people want to hear, Voters want a leader who is able to bring Americans together and is able to chart a future full of promise. Change is what the voters want after 7 years of the Bush administration and Clinton does not represent change but rather the status quo.

11:05 PM - Senator Obama is now speaking flanked by his wife and children. Thank you Iowa. They said this day would never come and this country was too divided but today Iowans have done what the cynics said could not be done. Iowans have done what the people in New hampshire can do in five days. We are one people and one nation and the time for change has come. Time has come to end the bitterness in washington and the divisiveness of the blue and red states. Choosing hope over fear-change is coming to America. Time has come for a President to be honest with Americans and he asked for New Hampshire for their support. He will be a President who will restore our moral standing around the world. He thanked all his workers and supporters - and the love of his life his wife Michelle. Time to lift this country up and not tear it down. People are ready to believe again! A powerful speech.

Clinton and Edwards must do well in the New Hampshire primary in just five days. If Obama follows up with a win in New Hampshire his campaign will be well positioned for S. Carolina and then February 5th, the new Super Tuesday when over 20 states hold their primaries.

11:19 PM Biden and Dodd withdraw as I predicted. Gravel, Richardson and Kucinich should follow their lead.

The other big story tonight was twice as many Democrats voted than Republicans in Iowa. 57% of voters under 30 voted for Obama and 35% of women voted for Obama and only 30% of women voted for Clinton-another bad sign for Clinton.


Anonymous said...

Iowa Democratic Party Live Results. 50% reporting:

Obama 33.5%
Edwards 32.0%
Clinton 31.6%

(rounded numbers).

It'll be interesting to see how it's spun. A win for Obama, but Edwards and Clinton will try to make it into a three way tie. But if Obama can win Iowa, he just picked up the entire south. Maryland may mean something after all...

Anonymous said...

Re Romney: on a plane back to Boston. Republican race is now Huckabee vs. McCain (maybe Thompson can hang in there, who knows). My guess is they go with McCain because Huckabee is completely unelectable. But one never knows...

Also, this is the end of Rudy Giuliani's campaign too.

Anonymous said...

75% reporting: Obama 36.2, Edwards 30.4, Clinton 30.25. Obama won!!! A heckuva a showing by Obama if the 6% margin stays or even widens to 7 (which would jive with what I heard this morning). More notable: NBC: 57% of Obama's supporters 17-29. The young people SHOWED up. And they won a guy a caucus. As a young person, I'm damn proud of my generation. It's time for a new direction. I predict Obama gets a big boost out of this, wins NH, SC, and coasts to the nomination.

Anonymous said...

The top three Dems are still the top three Dems, so this moves me not so much. I could, maybe, hold my nose and vote for Edwards, but not for Clinton or Obama.