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Tuesday, January 8, 2008

The Clinton Sob - Is it Over Before it Starts?

George Wenschhof

Since 1972 every Democratic Party candidate running for President has received the nomination if they won the primaries in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Here is a good story on this by Congressional Politics:

Meanwhile, Senator Hillary Clinton (NY) who several days ago was talking about how her campaign was built for the long haul and how she wanted to campaign in all the states is continuing a meltdown.

Yesterday, she went from crying to attacking in literally minutes. First, copying former Senator John Edwards (NC) comments from the last debate about how this campaign is personal to him, she said the exact same thing but added a sob or two.

Then she went into attack mode with something out of the Carl Rove Republican play-book saying Senator Barack Obama (Illinois) did not have the experience to deal with the issues facing Americans.

Also remember Clinton's New Hampshire campaign manager resigned prior to the Iowa caucuses after saying that he was concerned that Senator Obama's previous admitted drug use would make him a weak candidate against the Republican nominee.

Arianna Huffington of The Huffington Post has a good read here on the Clinton attacks:

In spite of all of this expect Clinton to run a competitive race today in New Hampshire. She has the established and institutional Democratic support in the state. Even if she fails to win in New Hampshire, her campaign will continue on to Super Tuesday on February 5th. Although she would then need to spend time soothing financial donors and keeping previously pledged super delegates in the remaining states committed to her campaign.

To repeat the success he had in Iowa, Obama will need a repeat of the high turnout of younger voters along with continued support from women, and Independents.

While Edwards has to hope for either a strong third place showing or voters getting turned off to Clinton's attacks on Obama enabling him to squeak again into a second place finish. He will then put a strong emphasis in South Carolina.

In Iowa two times the number of Democrats voted than in 2004. Let's hope for continued record highs in Democrats going to the Polls and for the majority of Independents to vote for a Democrat.

Now it's on to Nevada on the 19th and I look for New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to do well there and then drop out of the race. Remember that although Michigan's primary falls earlier on the 15th, they had their Democratic delegates stripped by the Democratic National Committee so that will be a no contest for any Democrat who stayed on the ballot.

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