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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Will Obama Close It Out Today?

George Wenschhof

The rap put on Senator Barack Obama by Senator Hillary Clinton is that he can't close it out. She has a point for he has been unable to substantially increase a 130+ delegate lead. Senator Clinton, on the other hand, has been unable to win enough states and delegates to put her in the lead so her nagging question is why is she staying in the race.

Today, the overall delegate count is Obama - 1747 and Clinton - 1608. The polls released today are as follows: North Carolina - Insider Advantage (5-5) Obama-47, Clinton-43, Zogby (5-4 to 5-5) Obama-51, Clinton-37 with Indiana - Insider Advantage (5-4) Clinton-48, Obama-44, Zogby (5-4 to 5-5) Obama-45, Clinton-43

A win by Obama in both states today would almost certainly close out what has been one of the most exciting democratic primary campaigns ever, for the presidential nomination.

Will the continuing Reverend Wright controversy or the different arguments by the candidates on the merits of a gas tax holiday have any effect today?

Yesterday, the Baltimore Sun had an article entitled "Clinton, Obama predict fight will go into June". While has an article entitled "Clinton fate hangs in the balance"

It is hard to imagine a Clinton spin on why she would continue if she lost both states today. Yet, if the final results are such that the delegates are basically split between the candidates, she will continue for it will also be difficult for Obama to win the delegates he needs to reach 2025.

Recently, Hillary has used her husband and former President, Bill Clinton exclusively in small towns across Indiana and North Carolina so we will also see what effect this has on the vote today.

Also keep in mind the undecideds broke for Clinton in both Ohio and Pennsylvania so if they follow form and do the same today, expect the victory to go to Clinton in Indiana and a close finish in N.C.

Obama was expected to win N.C. handily today and the Zogby poll today shows him with a 14 point lead in this state. Indiana appears to be the toss up state.

The Indiana Polls close at 7:00 PM ET and N.C. Polls close at 7:30 PM ET

We will be live blogging tonight as the results come in. Stay Tuned

1 comment:

Paul said...

Obama can't win enough plegded to capture, she can't, why not wait til Denver? Anyway, the polls are wrong, right?

The last few election cycles have conditioned us to mistrust exit polling. Now Obama adds another dimension. Polling leading up to contests, and exit polling after have tended to exaggerate Obama's share of the electorate. Wins for Hillary will exaggerate the momentum, late deciders, greater than expected margins, and the magnitude of the upsets. Penn. had MSNBC's crew waiting long after polls closed to call the election, siting a mistrust in the exit polling showing Obama doing much-much better than expected. In the end the numbers turned out dead wrong. So leading into today the realclearpolitics averages were:

North Carolina: Obama 50% Clinton 42% or Obama +8%
Indiana: Obama 44% Clinton 49% or Clinton +5%

Vote ! @