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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Dem Delegate Count Update

George Wenschhof

As I was blogging on the results from the Indiana and North Carolina primaries last night, I guessed that Senator Barack Obama would pick up 15 more delegates than Senator Hillary Clinton. Clinton eked out a 2 point victory in Indiana and Obama won by a decisive and expected 14 point margin in N.C.

Turns out I was pretty close. The total overall delegates reported by are Obama 1845 and Clinton 1693.

The 115 delegates in North Carolina were split Obama - 63, Clinton - 47 with 5 still outstanding.
The 72 delegates from Indiana were split Obama - 33, Clinton - 37 with 2 still outstanding.

That makes yesterday totals, Obama - 99, Clinton 84 with 7 outstanding. Read totals Here.

The outstanding delegates are a result of the proportional voting by congressional districts in addition to the proportional total vote. Some congressional district races are close and their numbers trickle in slowly. It is likely the remaining 7 delegates will be split 4-3 in favor of Obama.

There remain an estimated 267 uncommitted superdelegates and the six primaries left on the schedule have a combined total of 217 pledged delegates. That leaves a total of 484 delegates remaining not counting Florida and Michigan 313 pledged delegates but counting their 53 superdelegates.

The Clinton campaign has to hope for a successful outcome in their favor when the credentials committee of the Democratic National Committee meet on May 31st. Here they will argue the need to include the pledged delegates from Michigan and Florida which would increase the number of delegates needed to secure the party nomination to the 2209 figure Senator Clinton was quoted as using yesterday.

Otherwise, the math is clear and the road to victory by Clinton very tough. At this point, neither candidate can win without superdelgates. Obama only needs 180 of the remaining 484 delegates which is 37%. Clinton needs 332 of the remaining 484 delegates which is 68%.

Stay Tuned

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