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Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Clinton's West Virginia Victory Speech

George Wenschhof

The final numbers are in and Clinton won 67% and Obama won 26%. Interestingly, the other 7% of the vote went to John Edwards who some time back suspended his campaign for the democratic party presidential nomination. It appears Clinton will pick up 12 delegates on Obama with the split of the 28 delegates going 19 to 7. Since Edwards suspended his campaign as opposed to ending it, he could be awarded the other 2 delegates.

Here is the video and transcript from Senator Clinton's victory speech last night at a rally in Charleston, West Virginia.

It was a really upbeat speech and Clinton is making the rounds on TV today to try to add traction this this victory which many pundits are saying was too little and it came too late. She is also trying to capitalize on the perceived momemtum change by sending out all forms of fundraising requests today. This, in a hope of retiring the 20-25 million estimated campaign debt.

Today, the total delegate count is Obama 1883 and Clinton 1717. This puts Obama within 142 of the 2025 delegates needed to secured the party nomination. However, part of the Clinton strategy is to include the Michigan (128) and Florida (185) pledged delegates and the superdelegates from Michigan (28) and Florida (25). This would add a total of 313 delegates and the new majority that would then be needed to win the party nomination would be 2209.

The number everyone has been using to secure the majority of delegates for the democratic nomination is 2025 which excludes the total 313 delegates mentioned above. There are 189 remaining pledged delegates in the last five contests and 238 uncommitted superdelegates.

The total number of superdelegates available according to is 795 with the current split being Obama 285 and Clinton 272. If you subtract the 53 superdelegates from Michigan (28) and Florida (25), the remaining available superdelegates up for grabs is only 185 and this makes it even more improbable that Clinton could win enough delegates to secure the nomination without Florida and Michigan.

With a total of only 374 delegates remaining (189 pledged and 185 super), Clinton would need to win 318 or 85%. Obama would only need to win 142 or 38%

If you would add the total of 366 delegates from Michigan and Florida and move the majority needed to 2209 there would remain 740 total delegates, 238 super and 502 pledged. Obama would only need 326 delegates or 44% and Clinton would need 492 delegates or 66% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

So even with the new math by the Clinton campaign, the odds of her winning the party nomination are slim. The statement I heard from Clinton in her speech last night that rang a bell was when she said she would work hard for the democratic party nominee in November.

Stay Tuned

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