The Democratic Party Delegate Watch

George Wenschhof

The discussion of substantive issues of importance to democratic voters and the historic importance of an african-american and woman vying for the democratic party nomination has been thwarted in large part due to the convoluted manner used by the democratic party to nominate their presidential candidate.

The debate on the issues such as the slumping economy, health care, rising energy costs, foreign policy, and education has been overshadowed by the all important delegate count in the democratic party primary.

So here is a quick update on the current numbers. Senator Barack Obama continues to lead Senator Hillary Clinton in total delegates, 1738 - 1599 with 2025 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

With nine contests remaining in the democratic primary schedule, there are 408 pledged delegates and 280+/- superdelegates for a total of 688 delegates up for grabs for the candidates.

A quick look at the math shows Obama needs to obtain a total of 287 of the total remaining 688 delegates to secure the party nomination, which is only 42%. Conversely, Clinton needs to secure 426 of the remaining 688 delegates to reach 2025 delegates which translates to 62%.

Both of the above scenarios are possible and interestingly, it is even possible that at the conclusion of the remaining primaries and the remaining superdelegates have pledged to a candidate, neither candidate will have the 2025 needed to secure the nomination. If Obama were to win only 41% (282) of the remaining 688 total delegates, he would have a total of 2020. Clinton, by winning 59% (406) of the remaining 688 total delegates would have a total of 2005 delegates. Both would fall short of the 2025 needed to secure the party nomination.

If we look just at the remaining 408 pledged delegates, Obama would need to win 287 (70%) and Clinton would be unable to secure the nomination for she needs 426. Due to the democratic party two-step proportional method of awarding delegates by the total vote and by congressional district, it is extremely unlikely Obama will be able to win 70% of the remaining pledged delegates.

So, it will be the superdelegates who determine the nominee in this democratic primary. Unfortunately, the delegates from Michigan (156) and Florida ( 210) will not factor in the nomination due to the sanction imposed by the democratic national committee.

Up next on the schedule is Guam, who tomorrow will hold their primary with 4 delegates at stake. Next Tuesday is North Carolina (115 delegates) and Indiana (72 delegates). Click on the state to see the latest poll results. Zogby, on polling from 4-30 to 5-1 is showing N.C. Obama 50% and Clinton 34% and Indiana Clinton 42% Obama 42%. Both of these polls are showing 16% undecided so the current figures mean little.

The finish to this democratic primary promises to be wild. Stay Tuned.