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Monday, April 21, 2008

Ten Point PA Win By Clinton Would Hurt Obama

Upon review of the polls yesterday, I wrote that undecideds would break toward Senator Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania tomorrow and she would win by a margin of 52% to 48%. One of the reasons for the close showing by Senator Barack Obama would be the incredible amount of money his campaign has spent in Pennsylvania. The reports are that Obama has outspent Clinton by a 2-1 and maybe even 3-1 margin.

The polls out today show Clinton receiving the nod from those undecideds and even pulling further ahead of Obama. Zogby is saying today that a ten point Clinton victory is possible tomorrow. If Clinton can pull off a double digit win, it will spell problems for the Obama campaign.

Over the last six weeks since the last primary many issues have been pounced upon by both campaigns and the media, most of them being emotionally charged and not distinctions on a policy. We've heard countless number of times the Clinton misspeak on the Bosnia landing and fear of snipers, the speeches by Reverend Wright, Obama's statement on voters in small towns being bitter and clinging to guns and religion, and most recently the reporting of a casual relationship Obama had with Mr. Ayers, a former member of the 60's radical group, the weathermen underground.

With money apparently not being a major issue to either campaign, negative ads became the standard bearer, whether it was robo-calls or television. MSNBC First Read has videos of some of the negative ads.

It will be interesting to examine the exit polling of the vote tomorrow. Women of all ages and young voters under thirty helped Obama in Iowa. Then in New Hampshire, it was women who significantly helped Clinton. Much has been said about rural voters breaking toward Clinton versus voters from urban areas breaking for Obama. In addition to age and gender, the breakdown of the vote by race will be anaylized.

If Clinton does manage to pull off a double digit win in Pennsylvania, she will be the comeback candidate. Her supporters will be able to put some results behind the rhetoric that Obama will not be able to stand up to the Republican heat sure to come in the general election. They will also surely point out how much they were overspent, yet still prevailed. They will point out Clinton did not just win, but won by a significant margin and this is why the campaign must go on.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I would say with the millons Obama has spent in PA that to show poorly would be a major setback. He continues to outspend her state after state after state and she can still hang in there, that says a lot, to me about her capabilities. A lot of people have very strong opinions about Hillary, and some of which may be justified but no one can say that she has not worked hard to get to this point. Her campaign has made some tactical errors for sure, but I respect her for continuing to fight for the nomination. If she manages to pull it off, no one can say that she didn't work for it. I don't buy the arguement that she is only after this for the power it will give her. I truly believe she is motivated by a desire to see effective leadership in the White House and make some dramatic changes. Sure she has an ego, but would you expect anything less of any Presidential candidate?

Woodbury, MN