Congressional Race Update 10-11-2010

George Wenschhof

The battle for majority of the Senate and the House remains intense and still a real possibility of Republican control only three weeks away from the mid term elections.

The Senate has twelve seats in play which will determine the majority. Presently, Democrats have 59 Senate seats, when you count two Independent Senators who caucus with Democrats.

If the election was held today, RealClearPolitics.com has it Democrats - 48, Republicans - 46 with 6 races too close to call.

Electoral-vote.com has it Democrats 49 and Republicans 51.

The twelve races and current polling data is as follows:

New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) - 47%, Paul Hodes (D) - 42%
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) - 49%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
W. Virginia - John Raese (R) 49%, Joe Manchin (D) 44%
Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) 46%, Jack Conway (D) 39%
Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) - 44%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) - 41%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D) - 43%
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) - 48%, Michael Bennet (D) - 44%
Washington - Dino Rossi (R) 49%, Patty Murray (D) 46%
Nevada - Sharron Angel (R) - 47%, Harry Reid (D) - 44%
California - Barbara Boxer (D) - 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) - 44%
Alaska - Joe Miller (R) 36%, Lisa Murkowski (W) 35%, Scott McAdams (D) 22%

One interesting statistic that jumps out is the parity between the two major political party candidates. Out of these twelve races, only two candidates are currently receiving a majority of the votes and even then, it is a slim majority - Roy Blunt (R) in Missouri with 51% and Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin with 52%.

Over, in the House, it remains muddled, with 40-60 seats at play. Republicans are definitely poised to gain a significant number of seats with Democrats fighting hard to maintain their majority and keep Republican gains under 39.

RealClearPolitics.com has it Democrat - 186, Republican - 210 with 39 too close to call.

Electoral-vote.com has it Democrat - 202, Republican - 199, with 34 Ties.

218 seats are needed for a majority.

I will publish an update next Monday.

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