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Monday, October 4, 2010

Race for Congress Update

George Wenschhof

With four weeks to go to the mid term elections, the battle for control of Congress is intense and close. Expect to be bombarded with candidate commercials on television and inundated with candidate brochures in your mailbox.

According to an average of recent polling data by , the Senate is currently barely Democrat with 50 to 49 for Republicans with one race tied. The tied race is out in Washington between Patty Murphy (D) and Dino Rossi (R).

There are eight other Senate races to watch closely. They are as follows:
Nevada - Harry Reid (D) 48%, Sharon Angel (R) 47% look to see Reid hang on
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D) 43%
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) 48%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) 53%, Russ Feingold (D) 44% strong possibility of GOP win
Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) 41%, Alex Giannoulias (D) 40% - both candidates have negative baggage and there is still a large number of undecided - makes this a "pick-em" contest.
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 46% - Look to see Blumenthal win.
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) - 46%, Pat Sestak (D) 38% - Look to see Republicans take back the Arlen Specter seat.
W. Virginia - John Raese (R) - 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 46% - a surprise the race is being led by a Republican. Look to see Manchin win this seat.

At this point, Democrats will maintain control of the Senate. However, they will lose 5-7 seats from the 59 currently held by Democrats which includes two Independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats. has it Democrats - 48, Republicans - 47 with five too close to call races.

The House is even more muddled as all 435 seats are up for election. Republicans need to pick up a net of 39 seats to gain a slim majority. has it currently at Republicans with 207, Democrats with 190 and 38 toss-ups. Not a good sign for democrats as Republicans would only need to win a third of the 38 toss-up elections to win a majority in the House. has it currently at Democrats with 204, Republicans with 190 and 40 toss-up elections. This analysis favors Democrats as they would only need to win a third of the toss-up elections to maintain their majority.

At this point, future control of the House continue to be a question, but Democrats appear to maintain the Senate.

Next Monday, we will publish another update. Stay Tuned...


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