George Wenschhof
With only two weeks to go until the mid term elections, most political analysts agree the Republicans will win a majority of seats in the House. Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to gain control of the House and as of today, it looks like they will have a net gain closer to 50 seats.
This would mean the removal of Nancy Pelosi (D-Calf.) as Speaker of the House with Representative John Boehner (R-Ohio), the favorite to be elected the next House Speaker. Pelosi is the first woman elected as Speaker of the House.
RealClearPolitics.com has the House race currently at 181 Democrats, 212 Republicans with 42 races too close to call. Electoral-vote.com has it more favorable to Democrats with Democrats at 204, Republicans at 203 and 28 races too close to call.
All 435 seats in the House are up for election and 218 are needed for a majority.
In spite of President Obama and the First Lady stumping for candidates, Democratic voters are not as fired up as they were in the 2008 presidential election and younger voters are not expected to turn out in the same numbers.
The Senate, once considered to be safe for the Democrats, is now seriously in play. Twelve of the 37 Senate seats up for election are still in play. Electoral-vote.com has it currently at Democrats - 51, Republicans - 48 with 1 tied. RealClearPolitics.com has it at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 too close to call.
Look to see Democrats hand on to a very slim majority in the Senate with a total of 52-53 seats. Illinois is a strong Democratic state and if democrats lose this seat, odds are they will also lose the majority in the Senate. Boxer and Manchin will hang on to win in California and W. Virginia. In Nevada, Reid will manage a win against tea party favorite; Sharron Angle. Russ Feingold, a favorite of liberals is gone in Wisconsin and Benett looks to lose Colorado.
Don't be surprised if Democrats, after winning a majority, replace Harry Reid as Majority Leader.
Below are the twelve Senate races still in play.
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) - 49%, Paul Hodes (D) - 40%
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) - 51%, Linda McMahon (R) - 44%
West Virginia - Joe Manchin (D) - 47%, John Raese (R) - 44%
Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) - 46%, Jack Conway (D) - 39%
Illinois - Alexi Giannoulias - 39%, Mark Kirk (R) - 39%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) - 50%, Russ Feinberg (D) - 44%
Missouri - Roy Blount (R) - 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) - 42%
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) - 47%, Michael Benett - (D) - 45%
Washington - Patti Murray - 50%, Dino Rossi - (R) - 45%
Nevada - Sharron Angle (R) - 48%, Harry Reid (D) - 47%
California - Barbara Boxer (D) - 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) - 46%
Alaska - Joe Miller (R) - 35%, Lisa Murkowski (I) - 34%, Scott McAdams (D) - 27%
After, the mid term elections, parity will be on display in the House and Senate. Most likely, Republicans will hold a slim majority in the House and Democrats will hold a slim majority in the Senate.
Voters have to hope for cooperation and consensus building for otherwise, look to see two years of gridlock in Washington.
Look to see centrist elected officials gain in clout as voters will tire of the liberal and conservative extremes. The Democratic caucus most likely to gain in influence will be the (DLC) Democratic Leadership Council, which was started during the Clinton administration.
For the next two Mondays, I will update the race for the House and the Senate.
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Monday, October 18, 2010
Democrats in Danger of Losing House and Senate
Monday, October 11, 2010
Congressional Race Update 10-11-2010
George Wenschhof
The battle for majority of the Senate and the House remains intense and still a real possibility of Republican control only three weeks away from the mid term elections.
The Senate has twelve seats in play which will determine the majority. Presently, Democrats have 59 Senate seats, when you count two Independent Senators who caucus with Democrats.
If the election was held today, RealClearPolitics.com has it Democrats - 48, Republicans - 46 with 6 races too close to call.
Electoral-vote.com has it Democrats 49 and Republicans 51.
The twelve races and current polling data is as follows:
New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) - 47%, Paul Hodes (D) - 42%
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) - 49%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
W. Virginia - John Raese (R) 49%, Joe Manchin (D) 44%
Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) 46%, Jack Conway (D) 39%
Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) - 44%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) - 41%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D) - 43%
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) - 48%, Michael Bennet (D) - 44%
Washington - Dino Rossi (R) 49%, Patty Murray (D) 46%
Nevada - Sharron Angel (R) - 47%, Harry Reid (D) - 44%
California - Barbara Boxer (D) - 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) - 44%
Alaska - Joe Miller (R) 36%, Lisa Murkowski (W) 35%, Scott McAdams (D) 22%
One interesting statistic that jumps out is the parity between the two major political party candidates. Out of these twelve races, only two candidates are currently receiving a majority of the votes and even then, it is a slim majority - Roy Blunt (R) in Missouri with 51% and Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin with 52%.
Over, in the House, it remains muddled, with 40-60 seats at play. Republicans are definitely poised to gain a significant number of seats with Democrats fighting hard to maintain their majority and keep Republican gains under 39.
RealClearPolitics.com has it Democrat - 186, Republican - 210 with 39 too close to call.
Electoral-vote.com has it Democrat - 202, Republican - 199, with 34 Ties.
218 seats are needed for a majority.
I will publish an update next Monday.
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Saturday, October 9, 2010
Sunday morning "Talking Heads" Lineup for 10-10-2010
George Wenschhof
This Sunday the discussion will be all about the mid term elections which are now only a little over three weeks away. Expect the announcement by National Security Adviser he was leaving the end of the month to be brought up as he is a part of a handful of White House senior advisers to President Obama to have exited prior to serving two years.
Two debates between candidates locked in close U.S. Senate contests in Illinois and Connecticut will take place and will be worth a watch. NBC "Meet The Press" has Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk who are battling for the old Obama Senate seat in Illinois. Kirk is leading Giannoulias 44-41% in recent polls. Both candidates have baggage, which explains why so many voters (15%) remain undecided. It is not easy for a Democrat to lose in Illinois, so this race is far from over.
ABC "This Week" has Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon who are vying for the U.S. Senate seat in Connecticut. Again, both candidates have negative baggage with McMahon the wrestling promoter spending huge sums of her own money and Blumenthal answering why he misspoke in regard to his military service time spent in Viet Nam.
In spite of their baggage, look to see both Democrats win their elections.
CBS "Face The Nation" has White House Senior adviser David Axelrod facing off against former RNC chair Ed Gillespie. Neither of these two have engaging personalities, but Axelrod is very good at sticking to the party "talking points". He will hammer away at Republican obstructionism and it was the Republican Party that put the country in the ditch while saying voters will not want to go backward. Gillispie will counter with charges of a failed 800 billion Stimulus bill and a stagnate economy with high unemployment is reason to vote for a change. Axelrod will win this one. Of note, is embattled RNC chair Michael Steele's absence on the Sunday morning talk shows.
DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Kevin McCarthy (R-Calf.),a member of the NRCC will debate how many seats Republicans will win in the House while appearing on CNN "State of The Union". Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to gain control. Depending on who you talk to and what polls one reads, there remains 40-60 seats in play. Democrats will lose seats as is historically the case for the political party in the White House, but I would not bet against Van Hollen and the assistance from the DCCC.
Fox News Sunday has more red meat as Democratic strategist Joe Trippi sqaures off against Republican spin master Carl Rove. More discussion on the House races will take place between Republican rising start Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). They are the majority and minority whips in the House. Both are good at articulating their points, but look for Wasserman to best Cantor easily - she is that good.
In the lone departure from the impending mid term elections, former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf appears on ABC "This Week". Current Pakistan President Asif Zardari is very weak and Pakistan/U.S. relations are on edge after numerous U.S. drone attacks and a recent U.S. helicopter attack killed Pakistani soldiers. The main supply route through Pakistan to Afghanistan has been closed to the U.S. resulting in columns of tankers stranded in Pakistan. The tankers have been an easy target for extremists and many have been destroyed. This is a little reported story with significance. Look to see it brought up for discussion.
NBC "Meet The Press" - Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk
CBS "Face The Nation" - David Axerol and ed Gillespie
ABC "This Week" - Richard Blumenthal and Linda McMahon
CNN "State of The Union" - Chris Van Hollen, Kevin McCarthy
Fox News Sunday - Debbier Wasserman-Schultz, Eric Cantor, Karl Rove, Joe Trippi
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Monday, September 27, 2010
Daily Political Wire 9-27-2010
George Wenschhof
71% of Republican voters consider themselves conservative - not a huge surprise in the latest Gallup poll out today. 18% considered themselves very conservative. In 2000, the number who called themselves conservative was 62% and in 2006, it was 67%.
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Democrats in close elections in bell weather states - while gloom and doom abounds for the Democratic party as the mid term elections near, in Kentucky, Jack Conway is within 2 points of Republican Rand Paul (49-47%) for the Senate seat to be vacated by Republican Jim Bunning.
In Ohio, Democratic Governor Ted Strickland is within 4 points of Republican challenger John Kasich 49-45%. The Fix has more on these races here.
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Democrats leading In key California races - former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown is leading Republican Meg Whitman 49-45% in the race for Governor. This lead, in spite of Whitman spending 120 million of her own money to date.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is leading Republican Carly Fiorina 51-43%. Reuters.com has more on the poll conducted by the LA Times and the University of Southern California here.
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Maryland candidates for governor receive dueling endorsements - Incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley received the endorsement from AFCME, the 30,000 member American Federation of State, county and Municipal Employees and former republican governor Robert Ehrlich received the endorsement of the Maryland Fraternal Order of Police (FOP).
Both unions gave the same endorsements in the 2006 election when these two candidates faced each other. The Baltimore Sun has more here.
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Latest Polling shows Democrats hold on to control of Congress - In the Senate, the split today would be 51 Democratic and 49 Republican. The Democrats have 2 "weak" and 2 "barely" rated races and the Republicans have 4 "weak" and 4 "barely" rated races.
In the 435 member House, where 218 are needed for the majority, Democrats have 222, Republicans 186 and there are 27 ties.
Electoral-vote.com has more here.
Every Monday until the election, we will publish an update. Stay Tuned...
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Analysis of census data shows changes in House seats for 2012 election - early examination shows Texas gaining as many as 4 House seats and Florida gaining 2 seats. New York is projected to lose 2 seats as is Ohio.
The announcement will come in December and will be in effect for the 2012 House elections. Redistricting will take plave after the December announcement. Politico.com has more here.
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