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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Electoral Vote Update 11-2-2008

George Wenschhof

Keep an eye on four states currently indicated below as leaning Democratic. They will all have to be won by McCain in order for him to have a chance to win the election. They are Florida(27), North Carolina(15), Virginia(13) and Ohio(20).
This would add 75 electoral votes to the 185 indicated below that McCain has now and his total would then be 260. This is still ten electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win. This would then require McCain to win both Colorado(9) and Nevada(5) which are also leaning Democratic. His total would then be 274 to 264 for Obama.
Although the McCain campaign continues to target Pennsylvania(21), I do not believe they will win this state.
On the other hand, if Obama wins North Carolina or Virginia where the polls will be closed earlier on the east coast, I believe Obama will win by a large margin with his total electoral vote close to the 353 indicated in the following data.
It appears there are simply too many states McCain needs to win where he is currently trailing in the polls in order for him to win the election.
However, I believe the election could very well be closer than the current data suggests with Indiana(11), Colorado(9) and Nevada(5) being pivotal to the final outcome.
On a personal note, this election is too critical for the future of our country and should not be close.
There is simply no question that Senator Barack Obama will make the better President. He will bring wise and measured judgement to the White House which has been absent of it for eight long years with the Bush administration.
No matter what state you live in, no matter if it is raining or the lines are long, make sure you vote for Obama on Tuesday. It is time for a change!
I began this weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from, eight weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, William Ayers, Joe the Plumber and more desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.
Voter polls by indicated all three Presidential debates were won by Obama and pundits agreed Biden beat Palin in the only vice-president debate. Meanwhile, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.
After six straight weeks of electoral vote gains for Obama, McCain has picked up 28 electoral votes in the last week. However, McCain continues to trail by almost a 2-1 count.
Obama now has 353 to McCain with 185. Indiana(11) and Missouri(11) went from weak Democrat to weak Republican. Montana(3) and North Dakota(3) which were tied last week, went to weak Republican. Note all four of these states are tradition strong "Red" states that although leaning Republican, remain too close to call.
The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below now number eight. However, the states are different from last week. Interestingly, the new state added this week is McCain's home state of Arizona which is now classified as "weak" Republican.
Note, that with only two days to go to the election, in the eight "too close to call" states, McCain is now leading in six.
Four years ago on this date, had the electoral vote at 262 for John Kerry and 261 for George W. Bush with New Jersey(15) Tied. George W. Bush would go on to win with 286 electoral votes to 252 for John Kerry.
Presently, Ralph Nader is polling around 2% and Bob Barr about 1%. Some polling data show the undecideds are now around 3%. There always remains the possibility of some unpredictable event transpiring that would affect the race, such as some international incident but the days are dwindling for this to have an impact.
At this point, twenty-one states remain in play, largely as a result of the Obama campaign strategy of competing in all the states.
Here is the view of the swing states over the preceding eight weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15
10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11

10-19-2008 McCain 171, Obama 364,Tie3
10-26-2008 McCain 157, Obama 375, Tie 6
11-2-2008 McCain 185, Obama 353

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*,D,D,D
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D,D,D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D,D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D,D,D,D

Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*,D
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D,D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*,R*,D,R*
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D,D
Virginia - (13), R-R

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D,D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D,D,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D,D,D,D

West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D,R*,R,R
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*,D*,D*R*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground State 10-19,10-26, 11-2

North Dakota - (3) Tie*,Tie*,R*

New Battleground State 10-26, 11-2

Montana - Tie*,R*
Georgia - R*,R*

New Battleground State 11-2-2008

Arizona - R*


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