Maryland Race for Governor Remains Fluid

George Wenschhof

In the solid blue state of Maryland, there is no clear leader in the race to succeed term limited Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley. With the candidate filing deadline of February 25 rapidly approaching, there remains talk of more candidates who may file for Governor.

Maryland 6th district Democratic freshman congressman John Delaney is the latest to consider running in a race where no clear leader has emerged.

Five Democrats, two Republicans and one Libertarian have filed for Governor with Republican Larry Hogan announcing recently he is running for the office.

Among the Democrats running; Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, state Attorney General Doug Gansler and state delegate Heather Mizeur are the main contenders battling for the party nomination resulting from the June 24 primary.

Adding intrigue in the race is the possibility of voters electing the first African American governor or woman and openly gay governor with Anthony Brown and Heather Mizeur on the ballot.

Larry Hogan, a former cabinet member of the last Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich and leader of the political organization Change Maryland, has quickly risen to the top among the Republican candidates and is the favorite to win the Republican primary.

The traditional early jockeying for statewide support by the leading Democratic candidates has included the naming of Lt. Governor Candidates, political endorsements and the boasting of fundraising prowess.

The Brown campaign moved quickly to announce Howard County executive as his running mate, removing a potential rival from the race and adding to his campaign coffers.  The Gansler campaign, hampered by three changes in campaign manager, countered with naming Jolene Ivey, an African American from Prince Georges County, one of the top four counties a candidate must win in a statewide election.  The Mizeur campaign followed by announcing Prince Georges pastor Delman Coates as her running mate.

So far, Democratic candidate campaign sniping at each other has dominated the news. Leading some Democrats to worry this could result in a similar outcome as the 2002 election when Republican Robert Ehrlich upset Democrat and Lt. Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

The Gansler campaign came under fire early on from presumably the Brown campaign or ones sympathetic, with leaks surrounding statements from Gansler about the Brown campaign using the race card, state trooper gate and photos of Gansler at a party where underage youth were consuming alcohol.

The less than stellar rollout of the state health care exchange for the Affordable Care Act has brought criticism to Lt. Governor Anthony Brown who was tasked by Governor Martin O’Malley to implement the program in the state.

This criticism, that questions his management ability, has severely impacted the Brown campaign that came out of the gate strong as the heir apparent to O’Malley. The Brown campaign focused on announcing the elected official endorsements they had received from O’Malley and many other elected officials in the state, including powerful state senate president Thomas “Mike” Miller and Representative Steny Hoyer.

Meanwhile, state delegate Heather Mizeur, who was considered a long shot to win the Democratic nomination, has mounted a strong grassroots effort appealing to progressives across the state.  Mizeur, who supports legalizing marijuana, recently announced the endorsement from the NORML political action committee. She also has received the endorsement from women's group Emily's List.  

January 8 campaign fundraising reports show the all important cash on hand to be: Brown - $7.1 Million, Gansler - $6.3 Million and Mizeur - $750,000.  The Brown campaign was aided by the $2.1 Million Ken Ulman, who had also considered a run for governor, had on hand.

Democratic representative John Delaney is a multi millionaire who spent millions of his own money in winning the 6th district race in 2012, where he upset the anointed Democratic candidate state senator Rob Garagiola. Delaney went on to dislodge Republican Roscoe Bartlett who had served for twenty years.  His victory was aided by gerrymandering of the district by the strong Democratic leaning state legislature.

Interestingly, the campaign manager of the Brown campaign is Justin Schall, who managed Delaney’s successful 2012 congressional campaign.   

Republican Larry Hogan, who just announced his candidacy, is expected to be aided by funds from his political organization Change Maryland.  The real estate broker has said his campaign will focus on the economy.

During an interview with Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot (D) last week, I asked him if he had second thoughts about not entering the race for Governor. Franchot, who has not endorsed a candidate for governor, told me “I love my job as Comptroller and look forward to serving another term”.

The recent news Larry Hogan will be running and Delaney is considering a run, clearly shows the fluidity of the race for Governor of Maryland.

Lost in the jockeying and sniping to date by some candidate campaigns has been a solid debate on the issues. 

Let’s hope from this point on, all of the candidates for Governor of Maryland focus on their position on the issues important to voters.

Stay tuned. 

2014 Political Season Buzz Begins

George Wenschhof

With absentee ballots still to be counted today before results of The City of Frederick election is official, attention is already shifting to what will be a very busy 2014 election year.

The primary election will be held June 24, 2014 and the general election will be on November 4, 2014.

Democratic candidate for Frederick County executive; Jan Gardner will make her official announcement on Saturday November 9 at 1:00 PM in front of Winchester Hall.

In her zeal to be the first to announce, she inadvertently stepped on a planned candidate training day sponsored by the Frederick County Democratic state central committee.  I’m hearing the class will be given a recess and invited to attend her announcement.

Voters in Frederick County will have a crowded ballot next year when they elect the Governor and Lt. Governor, Comptroller, Attorney General, Congressman, state senator, state delegates, county executive, seven council members, Sheriff, State’s Attorney, Clerk of the Court, Register of Wills and three Orphans Court judges.

Whew!  It is no wonder Gardner is trying to get a head start.  Rumors of infidelity continue to swirl around Frederick Republican board of county commissioner president Blaine Young.  So, the much anticipated contest between Young and Gardner may not take place.

While, the dirt is flying around Blogs smearing Blaine Young, local Republican leaders have told me there is damaging information on Jan Gardner that will certainly surface.

After, witnessing the negative robo-calls made by the state Republican Party against Democratic alderman-elect Donna Kuzemchak, one can only hope the county executive election next year focuses on the issues and electing the best person.

Lt. Governor Anthony Brown and his running mate Howard county executive Ken Ulman have jumped out in front in the race for the Democratic nomination for Governor and their Frederick County chairs are Goodloe (Geb) Byron and Elizabeth Chung.

Speaking of negative campaigning and Attorney General Doug Ganslers name immediately surfaces.  It is obvious, someone opposing his campaign for Governor has been leaking negative information on Gansler as his campaign has been forced to endure accusations concerning his alleged reference to Brown appealing to African Americans, a state trooper dust up over improper driving and the latest photos of Gansler present at a underage beer blast at a beach house.

Meanwhile, state delegate Heather Mizeur, a huge underdog in the race, continues to campaign across the state building her grassroots support.

Republican candidates for governor are Harford County Executive David R. Craig, Del. Ron George of Anne Arundel County and Charles Lollar, a Charles County business executive.  

Lt. Governor Brown is the early favorite to win, but don’t count out Gansler who has an impressive record and a campaign fund to compete seriously in the race for Governor.

Frederick County congressmen Chris Van Hollen(D) and John Delaney(D) are both expected to win reelection.

Comptroller Peter Franchot (D), who toyed with the idea of running for Governor, is easily expected to win re-election.

The two early favorites to replace Attorney General Doug Gansler are state delegates Brian Frosh and Jon Cardin.

In addition to electing a county executive for the first time, Frederick County voters will be electing seven council members; five from districts and two at-large.

Whitney Duck (D) is expected to run in the Brunswick district and Jessica Fitzwater (D) has announced she will be running in one of the two city of Frederick districts.  Expect more announcements soon.

In the local state delegate races, look to see Stephen Slater (D) run in district 3-b and look to see lots of juggling among candidates for the two open seats in district 3-a.  Former City of Frederick alderman Carol Krimm(D) is expected to run.  Other names surfacing are Karen Young (D) who just lost in her bid for mayor of Frederick, Ryan Trout (D), who ran for delegate in district 4-a in 2010 and lost.  Trout will need to leave his position with the city Housing Authority, where he is prohibited from running by the Hatch Act.

 

Maryland state delegate Galen Clagett (D-district 3-a), who lost in the Democratic primary in his bid to become mayor of Frederick, assured me yesterday he was not going to be running for re-election.

County Commissioner Paul Smith(R) has also been rumored to be running for delegate in district 3-a. 

The 2014 political season is just getting started, so there will be much to follow.

Stay tuned.

 

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Sixth District Congressional Race Is The One To Watch Today

George Wenschhof

Interestingly, at least three of the candidates; two Republicans (David Brinkley and Kathy Afzali) and one Democrat (John Delaney) will not be able to vote for themselves today. Living outside of the district they wish to represent, they are asking voters to cast their ballots for them today.

This is just one example of the many dynamics taking place in the newly created sixth district which makes this race the one to watch. The gerrymandered district, drawn to favor Democrats, spurred a total of 13 candidates to file; eight Republicans and five Democrats.

After months of listening to Republican and Democratic candidates telling them why they should cast their ballot for them, voters, who did not take advantage of the early opportunity, will weigh in today.

Maryland, Wisconsin and D.C. hold primaries today. In Maryland, in addition to the president, there are eight congressional contests, a U.S. Senate seat and several counties are holding board of education elections.

The polls will close at 8:00 PM and in case someone does not know the location of their polling location, the Maryland Elections Center has a poll location finder for you here: https://www.mdelections.umd.edu/

On the Republican side, 20 year incumbent Roscoe Bartlett is favored. Although, with half of the new district now including voters from Montgomery county, (who do not know Bartlett), the others seven Republican candidates are hoping for an upset.

The Democratic candidates realize, the primary winner will most likely go on to win the general, buoyed by a 43,000 registered voter advantage in the new district.

As a result, the infighting has been vicious. John Delaney, who resides outside the district, has spent $1.4 million of his considerable wealth on this contest. His campaign has also relied heavily on endorsements from outside the district, notably from former president Bill Clinton and the Washington Post.

Maryland state senate majority leader Rob Garagiola, on the other hand, has the backing from elected officials throughout the district, Governor Martin O'Malley, major unions, environmental groups and Moveon.org.

Bolstered, by the endorsement of Howard Dean, Dr. Milad Pooran, who has also put over $200,000 of his own money into the race, is hoping the Delaney and Garagiola battle will allow him to squeak out a victory with a plurality of the vote.

It is likely the Democratic winner will result from the campaign with the best get-out-the-vote effort.

Sean Rankin, campaign manager for Rob Garagiola estimates Democratic voter turnout will be between 40,000 - 45,000, which is under 25%. Former Maryland Secretary of State John Willis shares this view. Both, point out there is no top of the ballot race (President Obama is unopposed) to spur voter excitement. Rankin adds public schools are on spring break in four of the five counties in the district.

One also has to wonder; if, the spirited Democratic primary, with considerable combined campaign funds spent, will result in a higher turnout.

We will know soon enough. Expect, results to come trickling in by 9:00 PM.

I cast my vote for Rob Garagiola for Congress during the early voting period. Rob has a proven track record of building consensus on the difficult issues facing Americans today and producing results.

For, those of you who did not take advantage of early voting, go cast your ballot today!

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Maryland Sixth District Primary Nears

George Wenschhof

Last Friday, I published current sixth district voter registration data in a column where I suggest a change in the manner redistricting is conducted nationwide.

The current voter registration numbers in the sixth (rounded off):

Democratic - 183,000
Republican - 141,000
Unaffiliated/Other - 90,000

I thought it would be interesting to look back to the 1992 election, the year Republican Roscoe Bartlett was elected to compare the voter registration numbers. Numbers were taken from Maryland Board of Elections website.

Democratic - 139,922
Republican - 140,979
Unaffiliated/Other - 29,677
Total - 310,578

Thomas Hattery (D) received 46% of the vote - 106,224
Roscoe Bartlett (R) received 54% of the vote - 125,564

Democratic voter turnout was 85%, Republican 84% and Unaffiliated/Other 81%.

It is interesting to note, the even registration between Republicans and Democrats in 1992 and the very high voter turnout in that election.

As the primary nears, the bickering and rumor mongering abounds among the top three Democratic candidates.

State Senate Majority Leader Rob Garagiola, who some believe was handpicked by state senate president Thomas V. Mike Miller, is the front runner among five Democrats vying to unseat Rep. Roscoe Bartlett.

Some Democrats, from the old portions of the sixth district, after suffering for 20 years without Democratic Party support, are resentful Garagiola is from the new portion of the district.

Garagiola has put his years as a state senator and his voting record to work for him as he has racked up endorsements from elected officials throughout the sixth district.

Leaving, Democratic challengers John Delaney and Dr. Milad Pooran to counter with national level endorsements from former President Bill Clinton and former Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean respectfully.

The Pooran campaign is hopeful for a split in the vote between Delaney and Garagiola which would allow them to eke out a victory with a plurality of the vote.

Over, the next three weeks, Democratic voters will need to look past the sniping that often occurs between hotly contested campaigns and focus on the positions the candidates have on the issues important to them.

Democratic voters should plan to visit their websites and attend any remaining forums.

Below are links to Democratic candidates websites:

Rob Garagiola: http://www.robgaragiola.com/
John Delaney: http://www.delaney2012.com/
Milad Pooran: http://miladforcongress.com/
Charles Bailey: http://charlesbaileyforcongress.com/
Ron Little: http://ronlittle4congress.com/

Republicans, recognizing the voter registration disparity in the district, will try to capitalize on Democratic in-fighting, to help their nominee win on November 6.

Perhaps, wishful thinking on their part, but one only needs to look at the 2002 Maryland Governor election between Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Republican Robert Ehrlich in which Ehrlich emerged as the upset winner.

After, an unremarkable 20 year term in office by Roscoe Bartlett, it is time for a change.

Democratic candidates and voters, mindful of the Townsend and Hattery defeat, should focus on the prize.

Stay Tuned...

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Maryland Sixth District Blues

George Wenschhof

Western Maryland Democrats, longing for a change in representation, have reason to be optimistic. Republicans, on the other hand, have reason to sing the Blues.

The change in the sixth congressional district to solid blue illustrates both the strength of the Maryland Democratic Party and the craziness that surrounds the redistricting process.

Population changes reported by the census every ten years, is the justification for redistricting and currently, 36 states do so by authority of their state legislatures. Interestingly, seven states have only one Representative, due to the size of their population.

The remaining states use an independent or bipartisan commission, with a few of those states retaining state legislative approval.

Further demonstrating the nasty partisan aspect of the redistricting process, 13 members of Congress are facing challenges from fellow incumbents of their own party in primaries across the nation this year.

One such race was in Ohio, where Democratic Representatives Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur ended up facing each other on Tuesday with Kaptur the winner.

In Maryland, strong Democratic voter registration has resulted in a Democratic Governor, 35-47 state senate seats, 98-141 state delegate seats and 6-8 congressional seats.

Over the last ten elections, Democratic candidates, running in Western Maryland’s sixth congressional district averaged 39% of the vote, losing to Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett each time, due primarily to a Republican voter registration advantage.

As a result of redistricting, Democrats now hold a 42,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans 183,000 to 141,000, with Unaffiliated/Other at 90,000 (totals rounded off).

The *voter registration breakdown by county is:

Montgomery County – D-103,794, R-50,089, Unaffiliated/Others-51,299
Washington County – D-30,906, R-37,280, Unaffiliated/Others-15,778
Frederick County – D-27,967, R-22,907, Unaffiliated/Others-14,526
Allegany County – D-15,888, R-19,821, Unaffiliated/Others-6,228
Garrett County – D-4,805, R-11,434, Unaffiliated/Others-2,206

A quick analysis reveals Montgomery County voters now make up about 57% (103,794) and Frederick County 15% (27,967) of the Democratic registered voters in the new district.

The seat is now considered "Leans Democrat" and is most likely included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Drive for 25" effort to regain a majority in the House.

As a result of the gerrymandered district, five Democrats and eight Republicans, including Bartlett, have filed to run for the seat, fueling all of the political shenanigans voters have come to expect.

The mudslinging between several Democratic candidate campaigns is now in full force, perhaps due to the knowledge the winner will have a voter registration advantage in the general election.

Voters go to the polls on April 3 to determine the candidates to move on to the general election. Early voting begins on Saturday March 24 and runs through Thursday March 29.

Thomas Schaller, in a column published in the Baltimore Sun, summed up the current redistricting process with the following: "In a democracy, voters are supposed to pick the politicians who represent them. But gerrymandering too often inverts this relationship: Politicians pick their voters, typically with incumbent-protection and party-expansion objectives in mind. Is it any wonder that a Congress full of mostly safe incumbents representing contorted districts suffers from record-low approval ratings?”

I’m reminded of the pick-up games I used to play in my youth. Two captains would select the players for their team.

No questions asked in regard to political affiliation; the choices made by the captains were based on selecting the best players to help the team win.

The few states that use an independent or bipartisan commission to handle redistricting have it right and it would be wise for the rest of the states to adopt the same policy.

Perhaps, Representatives would then be elected who will work together to move America forward.

*Thanks to Frederick County Board of Elections for voter registration data.

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