Sixth District Congressional Race Is The One To Watch Today

George Wenschhof

Interestingly, at least three of the candidates; two Republicans (David Brinkley and Kathy Afzali) and one Democrat (John Delaney) will not be able to vote for themselves today. Living outside of the district they wish to represent, they are asking voters to cast their ballots for them today.

This is just one example of the many dynamics taking place in the newly created sixth district which makes this race the one to watch. The gerrymandered district, drawn to favor Democrats, spurred a total of 13 candidates to file; eight Republicans and five Democrats.

After months of listening to Republican and Democratic candidates telling them why they should cast their ballot for them, voters, who did not take advantage of the early opportunity, will weigh in today.

Maryland, Wisconsin and D.C. hold primaries today. In Maryland, in addition to the president, there are eight congressional contests, a U.S. Senate seat and several counties are holding board of education elections.

The polls will close at 8:00 PM and in case someone does not know the location of their polling location, the Maryland Elections Center has a poll location finder for you here: https://www.mdelections.umd.edu/

On the Republican side, 20 year incumbent Roscoe Bartlett is favored. Although, with half of the new district now including voters from Montgomery county, (who do not know Bartlett), the others seven Republican candidates are hoping for an upset.

The Democratic candidates realize, the primary winner will most likely go on to win the general, buoyed by a 43,000 registered voter advantage in the new district.

As a result, the infighting has been vicious. John Delaney, who resides outside the district, has spent $1.4 million of his considerable wealth on this contest. His campaign has also relied heavily on endorsements from outside the district, notably from former president Bill Clinton and the Washington Post.

Maryland state senate majority leader Rob Garagiola, on the other hand, has the backing from elected officials throughout the district, Governor Martin O'Malley, major unions, environmental groups and Moveon.org.

Bolstered, by the endorsement of Howard Dean, Dr. Milad Pooran, who has also put over $200,000 of his own money into the race, is hoping the Delaney and Garagiola battle will allow him to squeak out a victory with a plurality of the vote.

It is likely the Democratic winner will result from the campaign with the best get-out-the-vote effort.

Sean Rankin, campaign manager for Rob Garagiola estimates Democratic voter turnout will be between 40,000 - 45,000, which is under 25%. Former Maryland Secretary of State John Willis shares this view. Both, point out there is no top of the ballot race (President Obama is unopposed) to spur voter excitement. Rankin adds public schools are on spring break in four of the five counties in the district.

One also has to wonder; if, the spirited Democratic primary, with considerable combined campaign funds spent, will result in a higher turnout.

We will know soon enough. Expect, results to come trickling in by 9:00 PM.

I cast my vote for Rob Garagiola for Congress during the early voting period. Rob has a proven track record of building consensus on the difficult issues facing Americans today and producing results.

For, those of you who did not take advantage of early voting, go cast your ballot today!

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Maryland Sixth District Blues

George Wenschhof

Western Maryland Democrats, longing for a change in representation, have reason to be optimistic. Republicans, on the other hand, have reason to sing the Blues.

The change in the sixth congressional district to solid blue illustrates both the strength of the Maryland Democratic Party and the craziness that surrounds the redistricting process.

Population changes reported by the census every ten years, is the justification for redistricting and currently, 36 states do so by authority of their state legislatures. Interestingly, seven states have only one Representative, due to the size of their population.

The remaining states use an independent or bipartisan commission, with a few of those states retaining state legislative approval.

Further demonstrating the nasty partisan aspect of the redistricting process, 13 members of Congress are facing challenges from fellow incumbents of their own party in primaries across the nation this year.

One such race was in Ohio, where Democratic Representatives Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur ended up facing each other on Tuesday with Kaptur the winner.

In Maryland, strong Democratic voter registration has resulted in a Democratic Governor, 35-47 state senate seats, 98-141 state delegate seats and 6-8 congressional seats.

Over the last ten elections, Democratic candidates, running in Western Maryland’s sixth congressional district averaged 39% of the vote, losing to Republican Representative Roscoe Bartlett each time, due primarily to a Republican voter registration advantage.

As a result of redistricting, Democrats now hold a 42,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans 183,000 to 141,000, with Unaffiliated/Other at 90,000 (totals rounded off).

The *voter registration breakdown by county is:

Montgomery County – D-103,794, R-50,089, Unaffiliated/Others-51,299
Washington County – D-30,906, R-37,280, Unaffiliated/Others-15,778
Frederick County – D-27,967, R-22,907, Unaffiliated/Others-14,526
Allegany County – D-15,888, R-19,821, Unaffiliated/Others-6,228
Garrett County – D-4,805, R-11,434, Unaffiliated/Others-2,206

A quick analysis reveals Montgomery County voters now make up about 57% (103,794) and Frederick County 15% (27,967) of the Democratic registered voters in the new district.

The seat is now considered "Leans Democrat" and is most likely included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Drive for 25" effort to regain a majority in the House.

As a result of the gerrymandered district, five Democrats and eight Republicans, including Bartlett, have filed to run for the seat, fueling all of the political shenanigans voters have come to expect.

The mudslinging between several Democratic candidate campaigns is now in full force, perhaps due to the knowledge the winner will have a voter registration advantage in the general election.

Voters go to the polls on April 3 to determine the candidates to move on to the general election. Early voting begins on Saturday March 24 and runs through Thursday March 29.

Thomas Schaller, in a column published in the Baltimore Sun, summed up the current redistricting process with the following: "In a democracy, voters are supposed to pick the politicians who represent them. But gerrymandering too often inverts this relationship: Politicians pick their voters, typically with incumbent-protection and party-expansion objectives in mind. Is it any wonder that a Congress full of mostly safe incumbents representing contorted districts suffers from record-low approval ratings?”

I’m reminded of the pick-up games I used to play in my youth. Two captains would select the players for their team.

No questions asked in regard to political affiliation; the choices made by the captains were based on selecting the best players to help the team win.

The few states that use an independent or bipartisan commission to handle redistricting have it right and it would be wise for the rest of the states to adopt the same policy.

Perhaps, Representatives would then be elected who will work together to move America forward.

*Thanks to Frederick County Board of Elections for voter registration data.

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Daily Political Wire

George Wenschhof

Budget Battles Continue - Republican House Speaker John Boehner wants 60 Billion in cuts for the remainder of this fiscal year and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says no way. This sets up the possibility of a government shut down if agreement can not be reached on a continuing resolution by March 4.

The annual budget deficit along with the national debt will be a major issue in the 2012 presidential election. The NY Times has a good read here.

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Bartlett Claims Foul on F-35 Engine Denial - the Maryland Republican Representative who also chairs the House Armed Services Tactical air and land forces subcommittee, says the pentagon lobbied to kill funding for the F-35 engine.

He has sent a letter to Defense Secretary Robert Gates with his allegations of improper action by the pentagon.

The House voted to kill funding for the program last week. TheHill.com has more here.

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O'Malley Speaks to Virginia Democrats - in his first address as chair of the Democratic Governors Association. He spoke at the annual Virginia Jefferson/Jackson Dinner. The Maryland Governor stuck to the themes being promoted by President Obama of education and infrastructure. The Baltimore Sun has more here.

Next week, Democratic Governors will be meeting with President Obama. One item to be discussed is money - states are broke and will plead for money from the federal government. Unfortunately, the federal government is facing the same situation.

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U.S. Position on Israeli Settlements Unclear - yesterday, opposite statements and actions were taken by the United States.

First, the U.S. vetoed a UN resolution declaring the Israeli settlements illegal and then U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated the settlements were illegitimate and called for a two state solution with Palestine. ABC News has more here.

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Hillary Clinton Large Campaign Donors Under Scrutiny - several of the large "campaign finance bundlers" of the 2008 Clinton presidential campaign have been indicted under charges they violated campaign finance laws.

Neither the Clinton campaign or her advisers have been found to have been involved and any improperly received money has been returned. The Washington Post has more here.

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Bartlett Holds Huge Financial Lead In MD 6th Congressional District

George Wenschhof

The required June 30 Finance Reports are out and Republican Roscoe Bartlett holds a very comfortable edge over his opponents. Bartlett was first elected in 1992 and has defeated a number of Democratic opponents ever since.

New Democratic candidate Casey Clark is reporting a total of $153, 353 in contributions, including a $50,000 loan. He also is reporting expenditures of $133, 917, including the repayment of the $50,000 loan.

So, Clark has raised $103, 353 and spent $83,917. Which leaves him with $19,446 cash on hand.

Democratic candidate Andrew Duck is finding out the third time as candidate for the sixth district is not the charm as his finance report showed he has raised a total of $20,668 with expenses at $17,677, including a $1,000 refund. That left him with a cash on hand balance of only $2,997.

Incumbent Republican Roscoe Bartlett reported total receipts of $190,119 and total expenditures of $76,962. His cash on hand balance which includes carry over funds is $416,464.

Republican candidate Joseph Kyrsztoforski reported a total of $8,397 in receipts and $7,598 in expenditures with cash on hand of only $1,153. He also showed a debt of $18,700.

No finance reports were filed by Republican candidates; Dennis Janda, Steve Taylor and Seth Wilson. Dan Massey; a Libertarian candidate, also did not file a report.

You can access the candidate finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission here

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MDP Chair Susan Turnbull Guest on "All Things Political with George Wenschhof"

George Wenschhof

I am pleased to have Maryland Democratic Party Chair; Susan Turnbull as my guest on the premier of "All Things Political with George Wenschhof". The show will air weekly on Mondays right here on my website. In addition to local, state and federal elected officials, my guests will include candidates for office and community activists.

I thoroughly enjoyed my conversation with Ms. Turnbull. It is easy to see why she is in the position she is in as she is both well informed and very likable. During the show, Ms. Turnbull talks about the upcoming elections in the state of Maryland and the Maryland coordinated campaign. She goes on to discuss races they have targeted such as the Maryland 1st Congressional district where Democratic incumbent Frant Kratavil will likely face Republican Andy Harris.

My next guest will be Frederick County, Maryland Sheriff Chuck Jenkins (R) and the following week my guest will be Frederick County, Maryland Board of Commissioners President Jan Gardner (D).

We hope you enjoy the program. We also want to hear feedback and suggestions from you. If you have a comment you would like to share with us, please leave it by clicking on "Comment" below or by sending me an email at GeorgeWenschhof@gmail.com

To schedule an appearance on the show, place an advertisement or send a donation to help pay for production costs, also email me at GeorgeWenschhof@gmail.com



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