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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

It's Romney's To Lose

George Wenschhof

Romney Wins Iowa -
by 8 votes over Rick Santorum. The pollsters were right in predicting a close first to third race with Ron Paul coming in third. has the final results here.

Now, the spin begins in earnest from both the winning and losing candidate campaigns as well as the Democratic Party.

As, I wrote last night, Romney is the clear winner as he did not campaign seriously in Iowa until two weeks ago when it became clear he could win. Headlining all the media stories, and appearing on all of the morning television news programs, Romney is in a strong position to win New Hampshire next Tuesday.

Adding to Romney's momentum will be the endorsement from Senator John McCain (Ariz.). If, Romney follows with a win in S. Carolina and Florida, the battle for the Republican nomination could be over by the end of this month. The Republican Party nomination is his to lose at this point.

Rick Santorum, by coming in a super close second, certainly receives a boost to his campaign efforts. However, he was so far behind, both in cash and organization, it is doubtful this showing with do much for him in the New Hampshire primary next week.

Santorum has to hope he can get an organization in place in S. Carolina and Florida quickly or else he will be toast.

Ron Paul was hurt by finishing third as he will do poorly in the rest of the primaries and caucuses. It is looking more and more likely a third party effort will result.

Jon Huntsman did not even receive 1% of the vote and has pinned his campaign hopes on a strong showing in New Hampshire on Tuesday. An intelligent moderate - you can call him done.

Newt Gingrich, the latest John McCain maverick style candidate, was bombarded with negative advertising in Iowa, once he became the flavor of the month for Republican voters, finishing a distant 4th with only 13% of the vote. Perhaps, he will reassess the Supreme Court narrow 5-4 "Citizens United" decision and urge Congress to call the Justices in to explain their decision.

Gingrich's only hope is to appeal to the conservatives in S. Carolina and hope for a good showing. He will lose New Hampshire, so a poor showing in S. Carolina and it's lights out for the Gingrich campaign.

Governor Rick Perry is heading home to lick his wounds after a disappointing 5th place finish with only 10% of the vote. He may well decide to stay there.

Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann had perhaps the worst night, finishing a distant 6th with only 5% of the vote. A huge drop from the top after winning the Iowa straw poll. This will certainly hasten her return to Minnesota and lead to her filing for reelection as a Representative in the House.

Already, this morning, Jim Messina, manager of the Obama campaign sent an email to supporters asking for their support. He said the Iowa results clearly showed Republican voters could not agree on a candidate. Messina went on to say whoever the Republican nominee will be it is clear they will embrace the extreme "tea party' agenda.

In addition, he pointed out the 12.9 million spent by "Super Pacs" on negative advertising in the weeks before the Iowa caucuses, saying they will be aiming at President Obama.

A protracted Republican primary process does not appear to be in the cards, leading to an earlier and longer general election campaign.

Stay tuned...


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