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Sunday, December 2, 2007

New Polls Show Obama, Clinton and Edwards in Dead Heat in Iowa

Two new Polls released show almost identical results among Democrats in Iowa with Obama first , Clinton second and Edwards third. Only 4 or 5 points depending on what poll you read, separate Obama from Edwards. So basically with only a month to go before the Iowa caucuses, it is a statistical dead heat in Iowa between the top three Democratic Presidential candidates.

For more information on the Des Moines register Poll conducted 11/ 25-28 / 2007 click here:

For more information on the American Research Inc. Poll conducted 11/ 26-29 / 2007 click here:

Both Polls indicate 75% of the voters polled voted for either Obama (28-DR,27-ARI) Clinton (25-DR, 25-ARI), and Edwards (23DR,23-ARI).

The only significant difference in the two Polls was the percentage of the vote that went to Richardson (9-DR,4-ARI) and Biden (6-DR, 8-ARI). This is worth noting for in the important second tier level of candidates Richardson has slipped a few points while Biden appears to have gained some support.

The Iowa caucuses are a unique way of voting in America with some votes occurring in the Home of one of the caucus attendees. It has been reported that Voters gathering in a home will literally show their support for a candidate by standing in one corner of the room. Discussion among the caucus attendees takes place and after intense lobbying they can move to another spot in the room signaling a change in who they are voting for. This change takes place for they know the minimum percentage of votes that are needed by a candidate in order to qualify for state delegates to the Democratic convention. Finally the vote is recorded.

What this means is the candidates and their staffs will be considering a variety of strategy options to urge their supporters to follow. For instance, after the first head count of voters in one home shows your vote count is not sufficient to qualify for delegates will you then urge your caucus supporters to move to another location in the room and support another candidate?

The dynamics of the Iowa caucus vote is unique so while Polls indicate support levels of the candidates, they do not indicate what the actual outcome will be. The battle between the three top tier Democratic candidates could be such that second tier candidates like Richardson and Biden could benefit.

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