Few Surprises in City of Frederick Primary Election

 George Wenschhof

While there are some provisional and mail in ballots to be counted, the outcome of The City of Frederick primary election is pretty well set.  Incumbent Democratic mayor Michael O’Connor (2,221) beat challengers Jennifer Dougherty (1,499), Roger Wilson (1,078) and John Funderburk (280) and will move on to the November 2 general election and likely face Republican Steven Hammrick.

Hammrick is leading Steve Garrahy by 103 votes but with only 857 Republican ballots cast and counted so far it is unlikely Garrahy will be able to make up the difference from the remaining ballots counted on Monday September 20.  The city will certify the primary election on Tuesday September 21.

Jennifer Dougherty, a perennial candidate, first ran for mayor in 1993. She won in 2001 and lost her mayoral contests since then.  Adding to her political defeats was a run for county commissioner and state senate.  She attacked O’Connor for lack of leadership and called for aldermen elected by precincts.

Incumbent alderman Roger Wilson, who faced allegations of misconduct by multiple women and a call to resign by the Frederick County State Democratic Central Committee, failed to articulate his vision for the city and although he was the top fundraiser among Democratic mayoral candidates, came in a distant third.

In the Democratic primary where five alderman advance to the general election, the winners were Katie Nash (3,636) and incumbents Derek Shackelfor (3,356), Donna Kuzemchak (3,289), Kelly Russell (3,263) and Ben MacShane (2,886).

The one surprise in the Democratic alderman primary is newcomer Katie Nash, who lost in her previous run for alderman as Republican candidate.  She is poised to join former alderman Meta Nash (no relation) and current alderman Kelly Russell who were also Republicans who changed political parties to Democratic.  Katie Nash also led in fundraising among alderman candidates.

Democratic alderman candidates Chris Sparks (1,803) and Robert Van Rens (1,498) fell short in their first run for city office.

Only two Republicans, Robert Fischer and Michelle Shay ran for alderman and will move on to the general election.

Voter turnout continued to be low in the off year city election.  Mail-in balloting was used for the first time along with in-person early voting and one in person voting poll open on election day.

The total voter turnout for this primary, to be adjusted after Monday totals are added, was 16.7%.  This compares to 13.7% in 2017 primary, 15.84% in 2013 primary and 17.98% in 2009 primary.

A bright note was Democratic voter turnout increased from 14.38% in 2017 primary to 20.6% in this primary.  Advocates for mail-in balloting will highlight this increase. 

Although, I am an advocate for mail-in balloting, voter turnout continues to be very low for the city primary and general elections.

The general election voter turnout was in 2009 – 23.75%, 2013 - 23.53% and 2017 – 21.58%.

In a city with a population of 78,000, steps should be taken to increase voter turnout. Several thousand voters should not determine city elected officials.  I have long advocated moving the city election cycle to the presidential election cycle.  Not only would this change more than double voter turnout, it would save the city money.  I have also long called for alderman elected by precincts.

I remain hopeful mail-in balloting will increase voter turnout in the November 2, 2021 general election.  Mail-in balloting is easy with Drop Box options. With the Delta variant of covid-19 continuing to be a health threat, mail-in balloting is also a healthy alternative to in-person balloting.

Nonetheless, I urge the incoming mayor and board to appoint a committee to consider additional options to mail-in balloting that will increase voter turnout in future elections.

Time to Consider a County Police Department

George Wenschhof

George Wenschhof

After one term of charter government, an appointed charter review committee is considering recommendations to submit to the Frederick County Council for their review and consideration.  The council will decide what and if any changes will move forward as a referendum to voters on the 2022 election year ballot.

Frederick County Council president M.C. Keegan-Ayer has said in addition to the charter review committee, the council will be appointing a committee to review county elected official salaries and another to review county district boundaries.

A review would also be well advised on whether to create a county police department, an action taken by other large counties in the state.

Sheriff departments across the country were established initially to collect taxes and serve summons.  Today, some have evolved into full law enforcement agencies who also often serve as administrators of correctional facilities.

The sheriff often, as is the case in Frederick County, is an elected official with the criteria for a candidate to appear on the ballot typically being meeting an age requirement and a resident of the county.  The sheriff, being a “separate” elected official, is not answerable to the county executive or council.

As the county population and role of the sheriff department has grown, so has the budget to pay provided law enforcement services.  The funding for the sheriff department is provided by the county executive and council, creating an interesting and oftentimes frustrating situation where the county executive and council have no authority over the sheriff.  Further convoluting the relationship between county government and sheriff department is the county provides legal, human resources and other services to them.

The move by larger counties in Maryland and across the country to establish a county police force emanated from the desire to have the human resources department develop criteria (education and experience) a candidate must meet to be considered for hire as county police chief and to create a direct administrative line of responsibility between the county executive and police chief.  The county executive hires the county police chief with consent of the county council. Often, a county police department is established and a sheriff department remains that acts as the enforcement arm of the courts.

The county council should consider either tasking the existing charter review committee or creating another committee with reviewing the merits of a county police department. This would be worthwhile for county voters; a public discussion covering the pros and cons of establishing a county police department.

Biden Does Well, Warren Solidifies Her Second Place Standing

Joe Biden

George Wenschhof

Vice President Joe Biden fired back at attackers and clearly illustrated the differences in his campaign and the other Democratic candidates for president.  The starkest difference is his campaign is focused on reality and not rhetoric.

Biden’s position to build on The Affordable Care Act passed under President Obama came across much more reasonable and less costly for taxpayers than the universal healthcare proposals put forward by Sen. Sanders and Warren.

On foreign policy, Biden also demonstrated his vast knowledge and experience over any of the other Democratic candidates.

Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), when called on, was clear and succinct and chose not to attack Biden.  She will continue to climb in the polls after this debate and solidify her second place standing.

On the other hand, Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt.) stumbled throughout and his hoarse voice did not serve him well.

Among the other seven candidates on the stage, it is doubtful anyone will climb in the polls.  Senator Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) came across reasonable when called upon, but the moments were few.  She could end up being considered for a running mate to the nominee.

Senator Cory Booker (NJ) also spoke well on race issues and should receive a bump along with Klobuchar in the polls.

Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke had a good performance, especially when it came to his position on gun control.  Banning assault weapons and the sale of high capacity ammunition clips is something 90 percent of Americans would like to see.

Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, polling at 2%, displayed his desperate situation with unnecessary attacks on Biden.  They were low blows delivered similar to what Senator Kamala Harris did in the first debate.  While that helped Harris gain attention briefly, she fell back to 5-7% in the polls in short order.  Do not look for a bump in the polls for Castro.

South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg continues to come across well when he was called upon and was correct when he scolded Castro for attacking Biden saying “this is what voters hate about politics.”

Senator Harris (Calf.) attempts at humor fell flat and she had difficulty defending her position on criminal reform and health care.

Business Andrew Yang showed why he should not be included in future debates, being weak on all issues.  His announcement gimmick that a handful of supporters will receive $1,000 a month for a year will likely run afoul of campaign finance regulations.

After this debate, this is still Biden’s campaign to lose and Warren has established she is the clear second place choice.  Sanders moment was clearly in the 2016 election – his fundraising will keep him in the race, but he is done.  Perhaps, if he endorsed Warren, there would be a serious challenge to Biden. 

O,Rourke, Klobuchar, Butigieg and Booker continue to impress at moments but fail to gain in polling.  Harris has failed to regain any of the momentary bump she received by attacking Biden in the first debate so her days in the campaign may be waning.

For Andrew Yang, it is time for him to exit the race - he is clearly not ready for prime time.

2020 Democratic Presidential Race Officially Underway

George Wenschhof

The first Democratic presidential candidate debate is over. Now candidate and media spin is frantically underway to influence voters.  One thing to keep in mind is this is June 2019 and the long road to the Democratic Party nomination will culminate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin during the Democratic National Convention held July 13-16, 2020.

That said, voters were still excited to listen to the candidates to help them determine who they will support who has the best chance to remove Donald Trump from the White House, their number one desire.

With 20 of the 25 announced candidates qualifying for the first debate, it created insurmountable obstacles for the moderators.  Splitting the debate into two nights with ten candidates each night helped in the logistics. But, it remained too many candidates on stage and difficult for voters to tune in for a two hour debate two nights in a row.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) led by Tom Perez was more than generous by allowing candidates to appear in the first debate with the following guidelines: To qualify via polling, a candidate must reach 1 percent in at least three national or early-state polls from qualifying polling organizations. To qualify via donors, a candidate must have at least 65,000 unique donors with at least 200 donors in at least 20 different states.

I applaud the DNC for giving so many candidates the national exposure during the first debate.  However, reducing the field to the top seven candidates should be the goal following the next debate scheduled for July 30-31.  The same everyone gets on stage criteria as the first debate will be in place for the second debate scheduled in Detroit, Michigan televised by CNN.

It was also smart for the DNC to hold the first two debates in Florida and Michigan, two toss-up states Democrats look to win in 2020.

The candidates who helped themselves in the first debate, in no particular order of significance, are California Senator Kamala Harris, Former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg, New York City mayor Bill de Blasio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.  While Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey received the most air time the first night, it remains to be seen if he benefitted from this debate.  Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York did her best to get noticed but it was Kamala Harris’s night so Gillibrand may receive little to no bounce in polling.

I expect former vice president Joe Biden to remain the front runner, even though he had a performance similar to the one President Barack Obama had against Republican Mitt Romney prior to his second term.  I labeled that the “rope a dope” defense because Romney who was far behind in polling hammered Obama throughout that debate and Obama just took it.  The race would narrow following that debate fueled by Republican optimism after witnessing the drubbing given to Obama.  However, Obama would finish strong and ultimately win reelection.  It is way too early to count Biden out.  But, he definitely needs to retool his approach.  Look to see if he remains at 37% or drops when polling following the debate comes out.

Also, look to see Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont fall from his current second place polling position with Warren taking second place.  However, he will likely remain in the top five.

Sen. Kamala Harris should receive the biggest boost following this debate and arrive in the top five in polls.

Stay tuned.

Democratic Presidential Candidate Debates Begin Tonight

George Wenschhof

When Hillary Clinton announced she would not be running for president in 2020, the question became, who will be the Democratic Party nominee?  Like her or not, Hillary and her husband Bill have an incredibly massive political organization, vast experience and overwhelming name ID, arguably stronger than any of the announced Democratic presidential candidates.  Perhaps, after losing to Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the third time would have been the charm for Hillary.  A video of Hillary running up the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with tears running down her face and raising her arms in triumph would have created a more human image, possibly propelling her to victory in November.

Instead, over the next two nights, 20 of the now 25 Democratic candidates for president will be showcased to voters in televised debates.  Tonight, the ten candidates to debate are: Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee.

Perhaps even more important than actually watching the debate and how candidates respond to the questions and each other, pay close attention to the campaign candidate spin masters.  Often, this is what hits the print and social media.  Candidate staff and surrogates will be hard at work prior to, during and after the debate, doing their best to portray their candidate in the best light.

It is estimated, with the announced debate format of no opening statement, one minute responses, 30 second rebuttals and a closing statement, each candidate will have between 7-10 total minutes over the two hour debate to make their pitch to voters.  There will be five different segments separated by four commercials.  It is always hard for moderators to keep candidates within the time limits so expect to see some candidates exceed their time.

The moderators tonight will be Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt and Chuck Todd of NBC News, Rachel Maddow of MSNBC and José Diaz-Balart of Telemundo.  The location of the first debate is Miami, Fla., in the Knight Concert Hall of the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County. Florida was won by Trump in 2016 but Miami-Dade County is a Democratic stronghold in a state Democrats want to win in 2020.

One of three women candidates appearing tonight, Massachusetts Senator Eizabeth Warren who did not challenge Hillary in 2016 has moved up in the early polling, challenging Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for candidates appealing to the more progressive wing of The Democratic Party.  Warren is the early polling leader among the candidates appearing tonight and her professorial make up and her numerous plans for policy issues, specifically calling out income inequality across America, may come across well tonight.

I do believe that Warren will pass Sanders after this first round of debates and that Bernie’s ship has sailed in the 2016 election when he was the alternative to Hillary for Democratic voters.

Due to the luck of the draw, this night has been referred to as the second tier candidate debate night because Warren is the only one registering in the top 5 in polls.

However, look to see New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio do very well tonight and possibly win this debate.  He is used to debating, has a good screen presence and a background of supporting and implementing progressive causes.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, one of two African American candidates will surely be asked about Joe Biden’s recent comments pertaining to working with people you do not agree with, referencing white segregationists who used the word ”Boy”.  Biden’s refusal to apologize, although he did call and talk with Booker, has not impacted his early polling lead.  So, Booker may be served best by mentioning the offensive manner of using this example and pivot to his position on other issues and defeating Trump.  Booker has been lagging far behind in the early polling so this is an opportunity for him to build his case to voters.

Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, an early favorite of mine, fell flat after her announcement outdoors in the middle of a blizzard.  Demonstrating her grit was admirable, but questions pertaining to how she treats her staff have impacted her and she has also failed to register in polls.  A good showing tonight would allow her to reset her campaign.

Housing Secretary Julian Castro is another early favorite of mine who has struggled to get traction in his campaign.  He is another candidate, like Warren, who actually has specific plans for his position on issues.  He typically speaks in a measured tone, so I would expect his staff would be encouraging him to show some emotion and spark tonight.  I wanted Hillary to pick him instead of Virginia Senator Kaine for her vice president and still feel he may have pulled enough votes to have helped her win in 2016.  He is a solid candidate but needs to elevate his game quickly or face fading away.

Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio is certainly from a much needed state, but his moderate approach to issues will likely fall flat tonight.  Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas has fallen off the radar after a highly hyped announcement following his close senate race and loss in Texas.  Beto has already reset his campaign with no noticeable result so he also risks being an also-ran very soon if he does not do well tonight.

Former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee are all already on life support so they will definitely need a “Hail Marry” moment tonight to jumpstart their campaigns.  Out of these three candidates, Inslee at least has the issue of climate change as the integral aspect of his campaign.

It promises to be a good debate to watch so plan to tune in beginning 9:00 PM ET on NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo.

Frederick County DRRA Amendment Moves Forward

Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner

George Wenschhof

Democratic Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner’s amendment to Developer Rights and Responsibilities Agreements (DRRAs) has moved forward with Councilmember Steve McKay (R-District 2) introducing it to the County Council on March 5, 2019.

McKay, who stressed the need to amend DRRAs in his campaign, said he was pleased to introduce the amendment that will cover several areas. First, it will change the minimum requirement to be considered to 1,500 homes. Second, it defines an enhanced public benefit to be included in agreement, which is above and beyond Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) requirements. It will also limit the length of agreements to five years with a five-year option and put limits on what is frozen.

The Maryland General Assembly in 1995 passed enabling legislation for DRRAs to address in part, late vesting of development projects, often defined as when foundations are built, the pendulum swings on how to manage growth resulting from changes in local elected officials and to provide some assurances to both developers and local government in zoning and regulations over the length of the development.  DRRAs are intended to be a benefit for local government and developers by providing benefits for each that would not be available without the agreement.  The state legislation does not limit the length of the agreement, restrict the number of homes or define a public enhancement that is above and beyond what is required by APFO review.

During the 2010-2014 board of county commissioners led by president Blaine Young(R), 13 DRRA’s were entered into, including one with 43 units that does not expire until 2034.  These agreements cover a total of 13,097 housing units, have an average length of twenty years and are the only approved DRRAs in Frederick County.

Gardner said, “I introduced this same bill during the term of the prior County Council. While the prior council debated it, they ultimately let the bill time out and made no decisions.

“I fully support my proposed legislation, which would require any future developer agreements to include an enhanced public benefit―like a school, regional road improvement, fire station―and prohibit the freezing of fees. The agreements should provide a benefit to existing residents and taxpayers.”

Gardner added, “I believe the five-year timeframe is appropriate because the county should reserve the right as it historically has done to review a development project if it does not proceed in a certain period of time because circumstances change including school overcrowding, road capacity, fire service needs and so forth.”

Gardner felt “DRRAs should be reserved for larger developments that will take longer to build and have the capacity to provide enhanced public benefits. Smaller developments do not have the financial capacity to make major infrastructure improvements and they can build out over a much shorter period of time.”

In regard to the number of units, she said “I am open to some flexibility in the 1,500-unit number, but these agreements should only be available to large projects for the reasons stated.”

Eric Soter, president of the Land Use Council of the Frederick County Building Industry Association and former Frederick County planning director, said, “The county already has the ability to accept or reject any DRRA right from the beginning as it is not a ‘by-right’ type of tool. So they are merely tying their own hands if the right project comes along.”

He noted, “There are no 1,500-unit developments on the horizon, there is not any ground right now that is planned in the County to accommodate that many units for one project. There is only one project with more than 1,500 units that is currently active and that is Lake Linganore.”

Frederick County Councilmembers Steve McKay (R-District 2), Phil Dacey (R-at-large), Kai Hagen (D-at-large), and Jerry Donald (D-District 1) all said they were willing to discuss the 1,500 minimum unit requirement. 

Furthermore, Soter said, “Even if there ever is a future project that would meet the criteria, the five-year timeframe doesn’t typically get you through the approval process. Perhaps some mass grading may begin, and some initial infrastructure, but with the State of Maryland being a ‘late-vesting’ state, there are no assurances that zoning could be removed for all or a portion of a community at any time without such a tool.” 

The public hearing of the proposed DRRA amendment will be April 2, 2019.

Frederick County, Maryland County Executive and Council Results

George Wenschhof

Turnout was indeed high for a midterm election with a 58.44% turnout with 101,049 votes cast out of 172,907 registered voters during early voting and the 2018 general election.  Early voting favored Democratic candidates and as I suspected unaffiliated and write-in candidates would fall flat.

Frederick County incumbent county executive Jan Gardner (D) won reelection against Republican challenger Kathy Afzali with 51% of the vote.  Gardner (14,682) would win by 6,678 votes over Afzali (8,004) during early voting and she would win after general election day with early voting added in by 7,184 – Gardner (50,974) – Afzali (43,790).  So, on general election day Gardner (36,292) would beat Afzali (35,786) by 506 votes.  Earl Robbins, the unaffiliated candidate for county executive would only receive 4,639 votes total of the 99,502 votes cast for county executive during early voting and the general election.

In the county council race where voters elect two countywide (at-large) and 5 by districts, several races are still to be determined by the count of absentee and provisional ballots

In the at-large race, Democrat Kai Hagen (43,002), Phil Dacey (R) (42,781) and Danny Farrar (R) (42,531) are lock in a close contest to determine the two winners.  Absentee and provisional ballots will determine this race.  However, Hagen with a 471 vote lead over Farrar is in a good position to be one of the winners with the other decided between the two Republicans where only 250 votes separate them.

Democrat Susan Reeder Jessee (40,545) would come in a close fourth and incumbent council president Bud Otis (12,450) who changed party affiliation from Republican to unaffiliated came in last.  Four years ago Otis received the most votes in this race as a Republican candidate and Jessee came in a close third.

The district 1 county council race is another nail biter with Republican challenger Kevin Grubb(10,876) holding a 57 vote lead over incumbent Democrat Jerry Donald (10,819). Interestingly, Donald would come from behind four years ago when he beat Ellen Bartlett (R) after absentee and provisional ballots were counted.

The write in ballot by Republican district 2 council member Tony Chmelik was a dud with him receiving only 749 votes out of the 22,694 total votes cast.  Republican Steve McKay (13,054) who beat Chmelik in the primary election would win easily against Democrat Lisa Jarosinski (8,891) in a heavy Republican voter registered district.

Democratic incumbent district 3 council member M. C. Keegen-Ayer(10,343) would easily win reelection against Republican challenger Joe Parsley (5,974).

In district 4, incumbent Democrat Jessica Fitzwater (11,023) easily beat Republican challenger Jimmy Trout (6,901).

Republican candidate Michael Blue (11,671) would easily win the district 5 council seat vacated by incumbent Kirby Delauter who would be beat by Kathy Afzali in the Republican primary election county executive race.  Democrat Shannon Bohrer  would receive 6425 votes.

Regardless of which party, after district 1 and the at-large races are determined following the absentee and provisional count, the animosity that existed between three Republican council members and Democratic county executive Jan Gardner will not continue.  Republican at-large council member Billy Shreve lost in the Republican primary election to Craig Giangrande in his bid for district 3 Maryland state senate.  Shreve, Delauter and Chmelik who were all antagonists against Gardner are now out of office.

Democrats will have two members on the county council with Fitzwater (district 4) and M. C. Keegen-Aeyer (district 3).  Republicans will have two members on the council with Michael Blue (district 5), Steve McKay (district 2).

The party makeup of the other three council members will be decided following the absentee and provisional count.  The odds favor Democrat Kai Hagen to win one of the two at-large seats.  Which means either Republican Dacey or Farrar will win the other at-large seat.

This means the winner of district 2 race between Grubb (R) and Donald (D) will determine which party will have a majority on the board.

If Hagen and Donald win for a Democratic majority look to see Hagen be made council president.  If Republicans win the majority and Dacey is elected at-large, he could be made council president.  That is unless, McKay, who is known to favor Gardner, votes to support Kai for president.  Who is made county council president will be interesting to watch.

Editor's Update: The first round of absentee ballots will be counted on Thursday Nov. 8 beginning at 10:00 AM by the Frederick County Board of Elections. In the District 1 race, there are presently 425 Democratic Ballots, 232 Republican Ballots and 135 "Others" Ballots to be counted. Democrat Jerry Donald is 57 votes behind Republican Kevin Grubb after the general election.

In the at-large council race where two candidates are elected, there are 3,592 ballots to be counted with the breakdown by party as follows: Democratic - 1953, Republican - 1,003 and Others - 654. After early voting and the general election the three candidates vying for the two positions are Kai Hagen (D) - 43,002, Phil Dacey (R) 42,781 and Danny Farrar (R) 42,531.

Editor's Update:  Vote counting is continuing with the Frederick County board of elections issuing a statement they will finish on Friday Nov.9 and post results in the afternoon.

Stay tuned.

Frederick County Election Buzz (county council District 1 and 2, state delegate district 3-A and 3-B, state senate district 3)

George Wenschhof

The county council district 1 race, that favors Republicans in voter registration, will likely be close but not as close as it was four years ago when Democratic incumbent Jerry Donald beat Republican Ellen Bartlett (the wife of former 6th district congressman Roscoe Bartlett) when the absentee ballots were counted days after the general election.

 I have known Republican candidate Kevin Grubb for decades and interviewed Jerry Donald during the campaign.  I published a question and answer piece in the Urbana Town Courier.  Both candidates would be a good member of the council and I expect this race to be close again with Donald, who exhibited solid decision making in his first term, securing a second term on the council.
The district 2 county race was made more interesting when Republican incumbent Tony Chmelik, who lost to Steve McKay in the Republican primary election, decided to conduct a write-in campaign.  Lisa Jarosinski is the Democratic candidate in this three person race.

It is no secret Steve McKay and Democratic county executive Jan Gardner are aligned in regard to growth issues. I have interviewed McKay on numerous occasions and find him to be a thoughtful and reasonable person. He would not participate in the Republican Team Hogan effort that is endorsing Kathy Afzali for county executive and Gardner, while not directly supporting McKay, did not go out of her way to help Jarosinski.  This district has a Republican voter registration advantage and they are favored to win. 

Now, with Republican Chmelik conducting a vigorous write in campaign, Jarosinski who was originally considered a long shot, now has an opportunity to win what would be an upset.  While it is late, it is better than never, the Democrats are mailing a slate campaign brochure that includes Gardner and Jarosinski. 

McKay(R) remains the favorite in this race, but do not count out Jarosinski(D) who has campaigned hard throughout the district and would make an excellent council member. I published a question and answer piece with McKay and Jarosinski in The Urbana Town Courier.  Chmelik had not announced his write in campaign at that time.

The state senate race in district 3 will likely be close with the state Republican Party targeting it as a pick up seat for them following Democratic incumbent Ron Young’s narrow victory four years ago.

Republican candidate Craig Giangrande, owner of Frederick County Burger King franchises has received the support of the Republican state Party that has included what has now become the “normal” sleazy attack mail and video ads.

Ron Young, who has worked effectively with a Democratic controlled state legislature, won 4 years ago during the vote conducted during early voting and may do so in this election as well.  

We will not know how the early votes were cast until the general election is concluded.  However, Democrats outvoted Republicans during Frederick County early voting by 3,300 votes with many of these votes cast in district 3.

In district 3 for the state delegate races, voters elect one from district 3-B and two from district 3-A.  Look to see the two Democratic incumbent delegates in 3-A be reelected.  Carol Krimm and Karen Lewis Young have both displayed exceptional constituent service and have developed strong relationships in Annapolis that is helpful to Frederick County.

Out of the two Republican candidates, Mike Bowersox has the better opportunity then James Dvorak for an upset over Karen Lewis Young, who received an ethics complaint from a disgruntled former employee toward the end of the campaign.

The district 3-B race should be one to watch with Democratic challenger Ken Kerr conducting a very dynamic and energetic campaign against well-known incumbent Republican William Holden.

The General Election is Tuesday Nov. 6 and polls are open 7:00 Am – 8:00 PM.

Races are always determined by voter turnout - Go Vote!

Frederick County Election Buzz (Governor, County Executive, At-Large Council)

George Wenschhof

With only three days until General Election Day Nov. 6, the following includes some musings on local elections in Frederick County, Maryland.

One thing to look for as the ballots are tallied is the coattails by Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) and County Executive Jan Gardner (D) on positions down ballot in Frederick County.

Governor Race

Ben Jealous, the Democratic candidate for Governor is trailing significantly (double digits) in polling and has to hope for a much higher Democratic voter turnout than four years ago.  Jealous will be looking for higher Democratic turnout in Prince George’s County, Baltimore City and Montgomery County.  Their campaign goal has been one million more voters than 2014. If they get it, look to see a Jealous win.

Four years ago Republican Larry Hogan beat Democratic Lt. Governor Anthony Brown by 65,000 votes (51%-47.2%).

At the end of early voting Democrats are outvoting Republicans (423,562-155,685) and in Prince George’s County (Dem: 90,120 – Rep: 4,933), Baltimore City (Dem: 42,176 – Rep: 2,055) and Montgomery County (Dem: 81,388 – Rep: 14,518).

Democratic registered voters outnumber Republican registered voters in Maryland 2-1, yet Hogan won 4 years ago.  Again, polling indicates an easy Hogan win.  However, keep an eye on voter turnout on Election Day.  A Blue Wave could propel Jealous to victory.

As a result, in this election, many local Republicans have been running with a “Team Hogan” slogan where Frederick County voters in the 2014 general election went for Hogan (Hogan: 50,715 – Brown: 27,682)

Frederick County Executive

I interviewed all three candidates for county executive and published a question and answer with them in an article in The Urbana Town Courier.

Democratic incumbent county executive Jan Gardner has clearly demonstrated over the last four years and throughout the numerous campaign forums during this campaign, she is the most competent candidate for county executive.

Kathy Afzali, the Republican candidate for county executive has extensively used “Team Hogan” throughout her campaign hoping Hogan, who is favored to win Frederick County, will help her to victory as well.

However, the unaffiliated run by Earl Robbins, an experienced businessman who has been active in the community for years who is hoped by some political insiders to have a negative impact on Gardner in this race, could actually boomerang and help Gardner.

The local Republican Party is fractured with the old guard favoring councilman Kirby Delauter who ran for county executive and was beat in the primary election by Kathy Afzali. He has been urging his Republican supporters to vote for Robbins over Afzali.

How to best manage growth continues to be the main issue in countywide Frederick County elections and ironically both Afzali and Gardner are running ads saying they have the best answer for runaway growth in the county.  Interestingly, Afzali who was a Maryland state delegate when Republican Blaine Young was president of the board of commissioners, never opposed the growth policies enacted by his board who I labeled “Blaine and Company”  resulting from their pro-growth and business friendly policies they passed while in office.

In a recent article I point out voter registration in the county shows Democrats (37.2%) and Republicans (38.7%) are essentially tied. Over the last 16 years Republican registration has dropped 7.6% and Unaffiliated gained 7%.  Democratic registration stayed at 37.2%.  So, it can be expected unaffiliated voters will vote more Democratic than Republican and with an unaffiliated county executive candidate, some will vote for Robbins.  However, unaffiliated is not a political party so do not look for them to automatically vote for Robbins.  Look, instead for unaffiliated voters to break Democratic.

Look to see the most qualified candidate Jan Gardner win the county executive race with Earl Robbins receiving less than 15% of the vote – Kudos to him for being the first African American and Unaffiliated candidate to run for countywide office in Frederick County. However, Afzali could run a close race with Gardner resulting from an effective campaign ad blitz and if Hogan wins big in Frederick County.  Afzali, with her last name starting with “A”, is also at the top of the ballot and this positioning often results in additional votes for a candidate.

At-Large Frederick County Council

In this race, voters will be picking two out of the five candidates on the ballot.  The two winners will be part of the seven member council with the other five members elected by districts. I asked these candidates, “What are the two most pressing issues facing Frederick County, and what you would do to address them?” and their answers were published in The Urbana Town Courier.

Danny Farrar and Phil Dacey are the two Republicans running and out of these two, Dacey, a former one term City of Frederick alderman, is likely to run a competitive race.  Four years ago both Republican candidates Billy Shreve and Bud Otis won these two positions.  With the change in voter registration I pointed out earlier, Republican candidates are no longer favored to win countywide races.

Incumbent council president Bud Otis is running for reelection, but this time as an Unaffiliated candidate.  As a result of his often siding with county executive Jan Gardner and the Democratic council members and the often 4-3 vote outcome on growth issues, he came under fire from fellow Republican council members Tony Chmelik, Billy Shreve and Kirby Delauter.  This would lead Otis to change his political affiliation mid-term to unaffiliated.  No unaffiliated candidate has won a countywide election in Frederick County.  However, look to see well known Otis be competitive.

If General Election voting mirrors the turnout in early voting where Democrats out voted Republicans by 3,360 votes, look to see the two Democratic candidates be at the top out of the five candidates for these two positions.  Kai Hagen, a former one-term county commissioner, is looking to reunite with Gardner who he ran successfully with 12 years ago with Republican candidate John “Lenny” Thompson and David Gray with what they coined the “Dream Team”.  The Dream Team victory aided by the Thompson slogan “If Developers win, you lose!”

Hagen, who has been out of office for eight years, received the top votes in the primary election which makes him favored in the general election.  However, Republican supporters of Billy Shreve and Kirby Delauter who both lost their primary election races will not support Hagen.  Again, look to see who has the stronger coattails in Frederick County.  If, Gardner wins easily, this will aid Hagen.  However, with Afzali also running a campaign to stop runaway growth, this will help Hagen as well.

Susan Reeder Jessee ran for at-large four years ago and barely lost, coming in a close third.  A candidate whose parents were actively involved in Frederick County politics, she is well respected across party lines and if elected would exhibit traits many voters long for today.  As a result, Susan will receive Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated votes.

Susan has run hard throughout the campaign going to events across the entire county and would be a positive addition to the Frederick County Council.

This race will likely be very close.

Republicans Drop, Unaffiliated Voters Gain in Frederick County

Illustration | Melanie Douez
Data comes from the Maryland State Board of Elections.

George Wenschhof

Voter party affiliation in Frederick County, Maryland, has shifted over the last 16 years, with Republicans showing the smallest gain. Out of 56,807 registered voters over the last 16 years, Republicans received (12,981-22.8 percent), Democrats (21,059-37.1 percent), and unaffiliated voters (21,193-37.3 percent).

Frederick County voter registration numbers as of end of September 2018 show Democratic registration is within 2,695 voters of Republicans. Sixteen years ago, Republicans had a 10,773 voter registration advantage over Democrats heading into the 2002 gubernatorial election.

Voters who decline to affiliate with a political party are the fastest growing number of voters in Frederick County and follow a trend that extends across the country. Unaffiliated voters in Frederick County have more than doubled in size from 16 years ago, increasing from 18,718 to 39,911 today.

Out of 174,636 total registered voters today, Republicans make up (67,637-38.7 percent), Democrats (64,942-37.2 percent) and unaffiliated voters (39,911-22.8 percent). Libertarian, Green and Other make up less than 2 percent of the registered voters.

Sixteen years ago, out of 117,829 registered voters, Republicans made up (54,656-46.3 percent), Democrats (43,883-37.2 percent) and unaffiliated voters (18,718-15.8 percent).

Maryland is a closed primary election, which means unaffiliated voters cannot vote in the primary election when voters of political parties determine their candidates who will appear in the general election. Unaffiliated voters can participate in nonpartisan primary elections such as the Board of Education race in Frederick County.

Deborah Carter, chair of the Frederick County state Democratic Central Committee, reflected on how Democrats have narrowed the gap with Republicans. “These things do tend to go in cycles,” she said. “Once upon a time, Frederick County Democrats outnumbered the Republicans, and it looks like it’s on track to happen again. However, the party is also evolving. Many old-school Democrats were what we now call ‘Dixiecrats,’ while today’s Dems are younger, smarter and more  progressive than ever before. We’re not only gaining on the Republicans in registrations. Democrats also saw much higher turnout in the primary than the Republicans did, and absentee ballot requests are almost two-to-one Dem. What this says to me is that Dems are more active, more energized and more excited about our candidates.”

Hoda Zaki, Virginia E. Lewis professor of political science at Hood College, noted, “The rise in unaffiliated voters is a sign that voters do not want to commit to one party, but wish to leave the door open to changing their vote depending on the particular election. This fluidity in political identification is related to the changes in both parties’ platforms. As political parties change and shift, voters respond in similar ways. Political parties and voters both are responding to very real challenges in the national and global economy.

“I’m not sure how to explain the drop in Republican voters, unless it can be explained by looking at the age and demographics of voters moving to Frederick County in recent years,” she added.

The chair and vice chair of the Frederick County Republican Central Committee did not respond to a request for comment before publication deadline.

If unaffiliated voters turn out, they will certainly have an impact on many local elections.

An unaffiliated candidate has never won a countywide election in Frederick County. However, two unaffiliated candidates are running in this election. The county executive race features three candidates for the first time: Kathy Afzali (R), Jan Gardner (D) and Earl Robbins (U). Also, the at-large (countywide) County Council race where voters elect two council members has five candidates: Susan Reeder Jessee (D), Kai Hagen (D), Phil Dacey (R), Danny Farrar (R) and Bud Otis (U).

Frederick County Elections Supervisor Stuart Harvey said, “Based on the turnout in the primary election and the increase in voter registration, I expect voter turnout to exceed 60 percent in the General Election Nov. 6, 2018.”

Early voting runs from Oct. 25 through Nov. 1. The General Election is Nov. 6.