George Wenschhof
When Hillary Clinton
announced she would not be running for president in 2020, the question became,
who will be the Democratic Party nominee?
Like her or not, Hillary and her husband Bill have an incredibly massive
political organization, vast experience and overwhelming name ID, arguably stronger
than any of the announced Democratic presidential candidates. Perhaps, after losing to Barack Obama and
Donald Trump, the third time would have been the charm for Hillary. A video of Hillary running up the steps of
the Philadelphia Museum of Art in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with tears running
down her face and raising her arms in triumph would have created a more human
image, possibly propelling her to victory in November.
Instead, over the next two
nights, 20 of the now 25 Democratic candidates for president will be showcased
to voters in televised debates. Tonight,
the ten candidates to debate are: Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sen.
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, Sen. Amy
Klobuchar of Minnesota, former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, Rep. Tulsi
Gabbard of Hawaii, former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, Rep. Tim Ryan of
Ohio, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee.
Perhaps even more
important than actually watching the debate and how candidates respond to the
questions and each other, pay close attention to the campaign candidate spin
masters. Often, this is what hits the
print and social media. Candidate staff
and surrogates will be hard at work prior to, during and after the debate, doing their best to portray their candidate in the best light.
It is estimated, with the announced
debate format of no opening statement, one minute responses, 30 second
rebuttals and a closing statement, each candidate will have between 7-10 total
minutes over the two hour debate to make their pitch to voters. There will be five different segments
separated by four commercials. It is
always hard for moderators to keep candidates within the time limits so expect
to see some candidates exceed their time.
The moderators tonight
will be Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt and Chuck Todd of NBC News, Rachel Maddow
of MSNBC and José Diaz-Balart of Telemundo. The location of the first
debate is Miami, Fla., in the Knight Concert Hall of the Adrienne Arsht Center
for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County. Florida was won by Trump in
2016 but Miami-Dade County is a Democratic stronghold in a state Democrats want
to win in 2020.
One of three women
candidates appearing tonight, Massachusetts Senator Eizabeth Warren who did not
challenge Hillary in 2016 has moved up in the early polling, challenging
Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for candidates appealing to the more
progressive wing of The Democratic Party.
Warren is the early polling leader among the candidates appearing
tonight and her professorial make up and her numerous plans for policy issues,
specifically calling out income inequality across America, may come across well
tonight.
I do believe that Warren
will pass Sanders after this first round of debates and that Bernie’s ship has
sailed in the 2016 election when he was the alternative to Hillary for Democratic
voters.
Due to the luck of the
draw, this night has been referred to as the second tier candidate debate night
because Warren is the only one registering in the top 5 in polls.
However, look to see New
York City Mayor Bill de Blasio do very well tonight and possibly win this
debate. He is used to debating, has a
good screen presence and a background of supporting and implementing
progressive causes.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker,
one of two African American candidates will surely be asked about Joe Biden’s
recent comments pertaining to working with people you do not agree with,
referencing white segregationists who used the word ”Boy”. Biden’s refusal to apologize, although he did
call and talk with Booker, has not impacted his early polling lead. So, Booker may be served best by mentioning
the offensive manner of using this example and pivot to his position on other
issues and defeating Trump. Booker has
been lagging far behind in the early polling so this is an opportunity for him to
build his case to voters.
Senator Amy Klobuchar of
Minnesota, an early favorite of mine, fell flat after her announcement outdoors
in the middle of a blizzard.
Demonstrating her grit was admirable, but questions pertaining to how
she treats her staff have impacted her and she has also failed to register in
polls. A good showing tonight would
allow her to reset her campaign.
Housing Secretary Julian
Castro is another early favorite of mine who has struggled to get traction in
his campaign. He is another candidate,
like Warren, who actually has specific plans for his position on issues. He typically speaks in a measured tone, so I
would expect his staff would be encouraging him to show some emotion and spark
tonight. I wanted Hillary to pick him
instead of Virginia Senator Kaine for her vice president and still feel he may
have pulled enough votes to have helped her win in 2016. He is a solid candidate but needs to elevate
his game quickly or face fading away.
Representative Tim Ryan of
Ohio is certainly from a much needed state, but his moderate approach to issues
will likely fall flat tonight. Former
Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas has fallen off the radar after a highly hyped
announcement following his close senate race and loss in Texas. Beto has already reset his campaign with no noticeable
result so he also risks being an also-ran very soon if he does not do well
tonight.
Former Rep. John Delaney
of Maryland, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee are all
already on life support so they will definitely need a “Hail Marry” moment
tonight to jumpstart their campaigns. Out
of these three candidates, Inslee at least has the issue of climate change as
the integral aspect of his campaign.
It promises to be a good
debate to watch so plan to tune in beginning 9:00 PM ET on NBC, MSNBC and
Telemundo.
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