Republicans Drop, Unaffiliated Voters Gain in Frederick County

Illustration | Melanie Douez
Data comes from the Maryland State Board of Elections.

George Wenschhof

Voter party affiliation in Frederick County, Maryland, has shifted over the last 16 years, with Republicans showing the smallest gain. Out of 56,807 registered voters over the last 16 years, Republicans received (12,981-22.8 percent), Democrats (21,059-37.1 percent), and unaffiliated voters (21,193-37.3 percent).

Frederick County voter registration numbers as of end of September 2018 show Democratic registration is within 2,695 voters of Republicans. Sixteen years ago, Republicans had a 10,773 voter registration advantage over Democrats heading into the 2002 gubernatorial election.

Voters who decline to affiliate with a political party are the fastest growing number of voters in Frederick County and follow a trend that extends across the country. Unaffiliated voters in Frederick County have more than doubled in size from 16 years ago, increasing from 18,718 to 39,911 today.

Out of 174,636 total registered voters today, Republicans make up (67,637-38.7 percent), Democrats (64,942-37.2 percent) and unaffiliated voters (39,911-22.8 percent). Libertarian, Green and Other make up less than 2 percent of the registered voters.

Sixteen years ago, out of 117,829 registered voters, Republicans made up (54,656-46.3 percent), Democrats (43,883-37.2 percent) and unaffiliated voters (18,718-15.8 percent).

Maryland is a closed primary election, which means unaffiliated voters cannot vote in the primary election when voters of political parties determine their candidates who will appear in the general election. Unaffiliated voters can participate in nonpartisan primary elections such as the Board of Education race in Frederick County.

Deborah Carter, chair of the Frederick County state Democratic Central Committee, reflected on how Democrats have narrowed the gap with Republicans. “These things do tend to go in cycles,” she said. “Once upon a time, Frederick County Democrats outnumbered the Republicans, and it looks like it’s on track to happen again. However, the party is also evolving. Many old-school Democrats were what we now call ‘Dixiecrats,’ while today’s Dems are younger, smarter and more  progressive than ever before. We’re not only gaining on the Republicans in registrations. Democrats also saw much higher turnout in the primary than the Republicans did, and absentee ballot requests are almost two-to-one Dem. What this says to me is that Dems are more active, more energized and more excited about our candidates.”

Hoda Zaki, Virginia E. Lewis professor of political science at Hood College, noted, “The rise in unaffiliated voters is a sign that voters do not want to commit to one party, but wish to leave the door open to changing their vote depending on the particular election. This fluidity in political identification is related to the changes in both parties’ platforms. As political parties change and shift, voters respond in similar ways. Political parties and voters both are responding to very real challenges in the national and global economy.

“I’m not sure how to explain the drop in Republican voters, unless it can be explained by looking at the age and demographics of voters moving to Frederick County in recent years,” she added.

The chair and vice chair of the Frederick County Republican Central Committee did not respond to a request for comment before publication deadline.

If unaffiliated voters turn out, they will certainly have an impact on many local elections.

An unaffiliated candidate has never won a countywide election in Frederick County. However, two unaffiliated candidates are running in this election. The county executive race features three candidates for the first time: Kathy Afzali (R), Jan Gardner (D) and Earl Robbins (U). Also, the at-large (countywide) County Council race where voters elect two council members has five candidates: Susan Reeder Jessee (D), Kai Hagen (D), Phil Dacey (R), Danny Farrar (R) and Bud Otis (U).

Frederick County Elections Supervisor Stuart Harvey said, “Based on the turnout in the primary election and the increase in voter registration, I expect voter turnout to exceed 60 percent in the General Election Nov. 6, 2018.”

Early voting runs from Oct. 25 through Nov. 1. The General Election is Nov. 6.

Crowded Aldermen Field in City of Frederick, MD Election

George Wenschhof

As it is still early and many of the aldermen candidates have not started their campaigning, I want to first take a look at some past results and what happens now. A total of twenty candidates had filed by the 4:00 PM ET deadline of July 7. Eleven were Republicans and nine were Democrats.

The nine Democrats are in alphabetical order; Josh Bokee, John Daniels, David Koontz, Andrew Kotkin, Carol Krimm, Donna Kuzemchak, Michael O'Connor, Kelly Russell and Karen Lewis Young.

The eleven Republicans are; Shelley Aloi, Bill Ashton, George Bauer IV, Robert Cassidy, Joe Cohen, Senitta Conyers, Amanda Haddaway, William Huckenpoehler, Alan Imhoff, and John Shupe.

Interestingly, there is still time for candidates of other recognized political parties in Maryland to file. Stuart Harvey, Elections Director; Frederick County Board of Elections sent me the following " Candidates who are affiliated with another recognized party in Maryland (Green, Libertarian, Independent, or Constitution), may be nominated by their party by August 3, for the November ballot. The party would file the list of nominee(s) with the City. Those who are “unaffiliated” had a May 1 deadline to submit petition signatures of 3% of City voters to get on the Nov. ballot, and that deadline has passed. However, for the first time, the City will allow write-in voting in November."

I point out the alphabetical order as this will be how they appear on the ballot. A candidate who appears at the top of the ballot in a multiple candidate race can sometimes benefit from this placement.

Other things which play havoc with aldermen candidates is many voters do not vote for five aldermen. The under votes in the aldermen election are substantial. So it is important for the candidate to be the first, second or third choice of the voter.

Another little known and rarely used tactic by some candidates is to quietly urge their supporters to just vote for them and no other alderman candidate. This ensures no other candidate is receiving votes from their supporters and as long as they are the second or third choice of the other voters, their odds of winning are increased significantly.

This tactic, also known as "single shot" is rarely used for if it became public knowledge, it would backfire against the candidate.

In the 2005 City of Frederick primary, there were a total of 15 aldermen candidates. 8 were Republican and 7 were Democrats. The City of Frederick website has the results here.

The five aldermen in each political party receiving the most votes on September 15 will move on to the general election.

The primary voter turnout is even lower than the dismal 30% general election voter turnout average. One of the issues to ask these aldermen candidates is their position on moving the city election date to coincide with the presidential election cycle. This will result in more than doubling the voter turnout and also save the city money.

I first broached this issue back in 1997 and more recently requested and received a mayor and board workshop. Unfortunately, incumbent mayor Jeff Holtzinger has not moved this forward to a vote. I have a series of columns on my most recent effort located in the right hand margin of the home page. Take a moment and read them and vote for aldermen and a mayor committed to increasing voter turnout in the city.

Keep in mind, the city population is over 60,000 and registered voters are around 30,000. In the 2005 primary, the Republican receiving the most votes was Paul Smith. His vote total was only 1,531. The fifth place Republican who would move on to the general election was James Joyce who received 990 votes. Alan Imhoff was second with 1,305 votes. Both Imhoff and Smith would go on to win in the general election. Both are also running for reelection this year.

Randy McClement, who is running for Mayor in this election, came in fourth with 1,010 votes. He would finish ninth among the aldermen in the general election with 3,257 votes.

On the Democratic side, Marcia Hall who toyed with the idea of running for Mayor, finished first with 2,638 votes in the 2005 primary as more Democrats than Republicans voted in the primary. Ms. Hall is not running for office in this election. The number two and three finishers in the Democratic primary were David Koontz and Donna Kuzemchak with 2,457 and 2,394 votes. All three would be elected in the general election with Marcia Hall finishing first with 5,430 votes.

It is readily apparent a candidate does not need to receive very many votes with such a low voter turnout. With more candidates running than in 2005, the vote will either be spread out even more or the additional candidates may bring more voters to the polling booth. Unless voter turnout increases, a candidate will be able to move on to the general election with even less votes than the winning primary candidates received in 2005.

Incumbents typically have a name recognition advantage over other candidates and this can give them an edge. Four incumbents; Alan Imhoff (R), Paul Smith (R), David Koontz (D), and Donna Kuzemchak (D) are all running for reelection.

While name recognition has it's benefits, it can also become a detriment if voters want to see a change. In this primary, this is something that remains to be determined. There is extreme dissatisfaction by city voters with the action the mayor and board took in regard to the early retirement buy-out program for city employees. Paying a employee 1-2 years salary to retire early and then hiring them back is not something that is understood by the voters. Whether the voters express this dissatisfaction by not voting for incumbents will be known on September 15.

As I mentioned yesterday, when I was discussing the mayoral candidates, the upcoming vote on three annexations into the city could also easily become a motivating force for voters. If voters do not want these annexations and feel they are premature, this could also be a factor if incumbent aldermen vote in favor and other aldermen and mayoral candidates express their opposition to the annexations.

Another overriding issue will be the perception voters have of the current mayor and board. After, what many felt were four years of bickering between the mayor and board during the 2001-2005 term, the current board of aldermen have been on the most part amenable to requests made by the mayor. However, some have said not enough questioning by aldermen took place over the last four years.

So, being an incumbent running for office can have it benefits but also work against them.

Newcomers have to work on receiving name recognition and with so many candidates that can sometimes be difficult.

Aldermen candidates and the voters also need to keep in mind they are electing a legislative body. The alderman position does not have executive authority.

The city has a charter form of government and voters elect their mayor as the executive. It is also known a s strong mayor form of government which means the mayor is the day to day administrator. The mayor also controls the gavel and as such, the agenda.

The City of Frederick elections have not in the past had publicized "slates" running for office. However, it is important for the voter to examine the position of aldermen candidates on issues and compare them to the positions their choice for mayor has on the same issues. The mayor needs the consent of the aldermen to move their agenda forward.

We have links to all of the Democratic candidate campaign websites located in the right hand margin so please take the time to check them periodically as I am sure they are updated from time to time.

In my next post on the City of Frederick election, I will look at the Democratic candidates for aldermen.

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