Frederick County, Maryland County Executive and Council Results

George Wenschhof

Turnout was indeed high for a midterm election with a 58.44% turnout with 101,049 votes cast out of 172,907 registered voters during early voting and the 2018 general election.  Early voting favored Democratic candidates and as I suspected unaffiliated and write-in candidates would fall flat.

Frederick County incumbent county executive Jan Gardner (D) won reelection against Republican challenger Kathy Afzali with 51% of the vote.  Gardner (14,682) would win by 6,678 votes over Afzali (8,004) during early voting and she would win after general election day with early voting added in by 7,184 – Gardner (50,974) – Afzali (43,790).  So, on general election day Gardner (36,292) would beat Afzali (35,786) by 506 votes.  Earl Robbins, the unaffiliated candidate for county executive would only receive 4,639 votes total of the 99,502 votes cast for county executive during early voting and the general election.

In the county council race where voters elect two countywide (at-large) and 5 by districts, several races are still to be determined by the count of absentee and provisional ballots

In the at-large race, Democrat Kai Hagen (43,002), Phil Dacey (R) (42,781) and Danny Farrar (R) (42,531) are lock in a close contest to determine the two winners.  Absentee and provisional ballots will determine this race.  However, Hagen with a 471 vote lead over Farrar is in a good position to be one of the winners with the other decided between the two Republicans where only 250 votes separate them.

Democrat Susan Reeder Jessee (40,545) would come in a close fourth and incumbent council president Bud Otis (12,450) who changed party affiliation from Republican to unaffiliated came in last.  Four years ago Otis received the most votes in this race as a Republican candidate and Jessee came in a close third.

The district 1 county council race is another nail biter with Republican challenger Kevin Grubb(10,876) holding a 57 vote lead over incumbent Democrat Jerry Donald (10,819). Interestingly, Donald would come from behind four years ago when he beat Ellen Bartlett (R) after absentee and provisional ballots were counted.

The write in ballot by Republican district 2 council member Tony Chmelik was a dud with him receiving only 749 votes out of the 22,694 total votes cast.  Republican Steve McKay (13,054) who beat Chmelik in the primary election would win easily against Democrat Lisa Jarosinski (8,891) in a heavy Republican voter registered district.

Democratic incumbent district 3 council member M. C. Keegen-Ayer(10,343) would easily win reelection against Republican challenger Joe Parsley (5,974).

In district 4, incumbent Democrat Jessica Fitzwater (11,023) easily beat Republican challenger Jimmy Trout (6,901).

Republican candidate Michael Blue (11,671) would easily win the district 5 council seat vacated by incumbent Kirby Delauter who would be beat by Kathy Afzali in the Republican primary election county executive race.  Democrat Shannon Bohrer  would receive 6425 votes.

Regardless of which party, after district 1 and the at-large races are determined following the absentee and provisional count, the animosity that existed between three Republican council members and Democratic county executive Jan Gardner will not continue.  Republican at-large council member Billy Shreve lost in the Republican primary election to Craig Giangrande in his bid for district 3 Maryland state senate.  Shreve, Delauter and Chmelik who were all antagonists against Gardner are now out of office.

Democrats will have two members on the county council with Fitzwater (district 4) and M. C. Keegen-Aeyer (district 3).  Republicans will have two members on the council with Michael Blue (district 5), Steve McKay (district 2).

The party makeup of the other three council members will be decided following the absentee and provisional count.  The odds favor Democrat Kai Hagen to win one of the two at-large seats.  Which means either Republican Dacey or Farrar will win the other at-large seat.

This means the winner of district 2 race between Grubb (R) and Donald (D) will determine which party will have a majority on the board.

If Hagen and Donald win for a Democratic majority look to see Hagen be made council president.  If Republicans win the majority and Dacey is elected at-large, he could be made council president.  That is unless, McKay, who is known to favor Gardner, votes to support Kai for president.  Who is made county council president will be interesting to watch.

Editor's Update: The first round of absentee ballots will be counted on Thursday Nov. 8 beginning at 10:00 AM by the Frederick County Board of Elections. In the District 1 race, there are presently 425 Democratic Ballots, 232 Republican Ballots and 135 "Others" Ballots to be counted. Democrat Jerry Donald is 57 votes behind Republican Kevin Grubb after the general election.

In the at-large council race where two candidates are elected, there are 3,592 ballots to be counted with the breakdown by party as follows: Democratic - 1953, Republican - 1,003 and Others - 654. After early voting and the general election the three candidates vying for the two positions are Kai Hagen (D) - 43,002, Phil Dacey (R) 42,781 and Danny Farrar (R) 42,531.

Editor's Update:  Vote counting is continuing with the Frederick County board of elections issuing a statement they will finish on Friday Nov.9 and post results in the afternoon.

Stay tuned.

Frederick County Election Buzz (Governor, County Executive, At-Large Council)

George Wenschhof

With only three days until General Election Day Nov. 6, the following includes some musings on local elections in Frederick County, Maryland.

One thing to look for as the ballots are tallied is the coattails by Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) and County Executive Jan Gardner (D) on positions down ballot in Frederick County.

Governor Race

Ben Jealous, the Democratic candidate for Governor is trailing significantly (double digits) in polling and has to hope for a much higher Democratic voter turnout than four years ago.  Jealous will be looking for higher Democratic turnout in Prince George’s County, Baltimore City and Montgomery County.  Their campaign goal has been one million more voters than 2014. If they get it, look to see a Jealous win.

Four years ago Republican Larry Hogan beat Democratic Lt. Governor Anthony Brown by 65,000 votes (51%-47.2%).

At the end of early voting Democrats are outvoting Republicans (423,562-155,685) and in Prince George’s County (Dem: 90,120 – Rep: 4,933), Baltimore City (Dem: 42,176 – Rep: 2,055) and Montgomery County (Dem: 81,388 – Rep: 14,518).

Democratic registered voters outnumber Republican registered voters in Maryland 2-1, yet Hogan won 4 years ago.  Again, polling indicates an easy Hogan win.  However, keep an eye on voter turnout on Election Day.  A Blue Wave could propel Jealous to victory.

As a result, in this election, many local Republicans have been running with a “Team Hogan” slogan where Frederick County voters in the 2014 general election went for Hogan (Hogan: 50,715 – Brown: 27,682)

Frederick County Executive

I interviewed all three candidates for county executive and published a question and answer with them in an article in The Urbana Town Courier.

Democratic incumbent county executive Jan Gardner has clearly demonstrated over the last four years and throughout the numerous campaign forums during this campaign, she is the most competent candidate for county executive.

Kathy Afzali, the Republican candidate for county executive has extensively used “Team Hogan” throughout her campaign hoping Hogan, who is favored to win Frederick County, will help her to victory as well.

However, the unaffiliated run by Earl Robbins, an experienced businessman who has been active in the community for years who is hoped by some political insiders to have a negative impact on Gardner in this race, could actually boomerang and help Gardner.

The local Republican Party is fractured with the old guard favoring councilman Kirby Delauter who ran for county executive and was beat in the primary election by Kathy Afzali. He has been urging his Republican supporters to vote for Robbins over Afzali.

How to best manage growth continues to be the main issue in countywide Frederick County elections and ironically both Afzali and Gardner are running ads saying they have the best answer for runaway growth in the county.  Interestingly, Afzali who was a Maryland state delegate when Republican Blaine Young was president of the board of commissioners, never opposed the growth policies enacted by his board who I labeled “Blaine and Company”  resulting from their pro-growth and business friendly policies they passed while in office.

In a recent article I point out voter registration in the county shows Democrats (37.2%) and Republicans (38.7%) are essentially tied. Over the last 16 years Republican registration has dropped 7.6% and Unaffiliated gained 7%.  Democratic registration stayed at 37.2%.  So, it can be expected unaffiliated voters will vote more Democratic than Republican and with an unaffiliated county executive candidate, some will vote for Robbins.  However, unaffiliated is not a political party so do not look for them to automatically vote for Robbins.  Look, instead for unaffiliated voters to break Democratic.

Look to see the most qualified candidate Jan Gardner win the county executive race with Earl Robbins receiving less than 15% of the vote – Kudos to him for being the first African American and Unaffiliated candidate to run for countywide office in Frederick County. However, Afzali could run a close race with Gardner resulting from an effective campaign ad blitz and if Hogan wins big in Frederick County.  Afzali, with her last name starting with “A”, is also at the top of the ballot and this positioning often results in additional votes for a candidate.

At-Large Frederick County Council

In this race, voters will be picking two out of the five candidates on the ballot.  The two winners will be part of the seven member council with the other five members elected by districts. I asked these candidates, “What are the two most pressing issues facing Frederick County, and what you would do to address them?” and their answers were published in The Urbana Town Courier.

Danny Farrar and Phil Dacey are the two Republicans running and out of these two, Dacey, a former one term City of Frederick alderman, is likely to run a competitive race.  Four years ago both Republican candidates Billy Shreve and Bud Otis won these two positions.  With the change in voter registration I pointed out earlier, Republican candidates are no longer favored to win countywide races.

Incumbent council president Bud Otis is running for reelection, but this time as an Unaffiliated candidate.  As a result of his often siding with county executive Jan Gardner and the Democratic council members and the often 4-3 vote outcome on growth issues, he came under fire from fellow Republican council members Tony Chmelik, Billy Shreve and Kirby Delauter.  This would lead Otis to change his political affiliation mid-term to unaffiliated.  No unaffiliated candidate has won a countywide election in Frederick County.  However, look to see well known Otis be competitive.

If General Election voting mirrors the turnout in early voting where Democrats out voted Republicans by 3,360 votes, look to see the two Democratic candidates be at the top out of the five candidates for these two positions.  Kai Hagen, a former one-term county commissioner, is looking to reunite with Gardner who he ran successfully with 12 years ago with Republican candidate John “Lenny” Thompson and David Gray with what they coined the “Dream Team”.  The Dream Team victory aided by the Thompson slogan “If Developers win, you lose!”

Hagen, who has been out of office for eight years, received the top votes in the primary election which makes him favored in the general election.  However, Republican supporters of Billy Shreve and Kirby Delauter who both lost their primary election races will not support Hagen.  Again, look to see who has the stronger coattails in Frederick County.  If, Gardner wins easily, this will aid Hagen.  However, with Afzali also running a campaign to stop runaway growth, this will help Hagen as well.

Susan Reeder Jessee ran for at-large four years ago and barely lost, coming in a close third.  A candidate whose parents were actively involved in Frederick County politics, she is well respected across party lines and if elected would exhibit traits many voters long for today.  As a result, Susan will receive Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated votes.

Susan has run hard throughout the campaign going to events across the entire county and would be a positive addition to the Frederick County Council.

This race will likely be very close.

Republican County Executive Highlights Frederick County Races to Watch

George Wenschhof

The Republican primary to nominate their county executive candidate is likely to be very close.  The winner will face unopposed Democratic incumbent county executive Jan Gardner and Independent Earl Robbins in the General Election.

Republican voters will choose between three candidates.  

Frederick County council member Kirby Delauter makes no secret of his disdain toward Gardner. Delauter is a holdover from the previous and last board of county commissioners, led by board president Blaine Young who I labeled "Blaine and Company" in a 2013 column.  Their mantra of pro business, pro development and privatizing government services ushered in Democratic county executive Jan Gardner who defeated Blaine Young four years ago in the first election for county executive in Frederick County under charter government. 

Delauter and other candidates are still primarily battling over growth issues that have dominated Frederick County politics over the last few decades.

Delauter's primary opponents, Regina Williams and Maryland state delegate Kathy Afzali have taken a more moderate stance toward development throughout their campaigns.

Ms. Williams was a county budget officer who was in a relationship with former board president Blaine Young and was fired from her county position by Jan Gardner following her election victory.  Williams would reach a financial settlement with the county after filing a wrongful termination suit.

Regina is the daughter of Debbie Williams who is well known in the county and who founded The Patty Pallotos Fund, Inc., a nonprofit that provides aide to individuals suffering from cancer.

Maryland state district 4 delegate Kathy Afzali has the largest war chest of the three and would likely be the strongest Republican contender versus Gardner and Robbins in the General Election.  Afzali is a hard campaigner first elected after upsetting popular Republican incumbent Paul Stull in the 2010 primary election.

With each receiving significant support, look to see the winner receive less than 50% of the vote.  It would not surprise me if Afzali emerges as the winner in this contest.

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The Democratic primary to select two at-large (countywide) county council candidates will also be one to watch. This race illustrates the division among moderate and progressive Frederick County Democrats.

Former one term county commissioner Kai Hagen is trying to make a comeback after he and the Democratic candidates he ran with were soundly defeated by Republican Blaine Young and Company in the 2010 election.

A lightening rod for voters who support and oppose him, this time Kai is making no secret of his wish to be elected along with fellow Democrat Mark Long.  Long ran for county council in the 5th district and lost to Republican Kirby Delauter in the previous election.  Sadly, Long and his positions on issues is drowned out by the Hagen rhetoric.

Galen Clagett is also trying to make a comeback after retiring as a state delegate following a primary election loss for mayor to Karen Young in The City of Frederick 2013 primary election.  Clagett served as county commissioner for 8 years, 4 as board president and 12 years as a Maryland state delegate. 

There is no love lost between Clagett and Hagen with Hagen highlighting Clagett's support for Delauter and his endorsement of Republican Randy McClement following his primary mayoral loss to Karen Young in the 2013 city election.

Susan Reeder Jessee who, in her first entry into politics, barely missed being elected in the 2014 General Election. She came in a close third and there are indications she will receive strong support again. She may emerge as the leader in this primary election.

Kavonte Duckett wants to be the first African American elected to the county council and is a refreshing voice.  He has exhibited a strong work ethic and sincere desire to represent the voters of Frederick County.

Who will win the second slot along with Susan Reeder Jessee is hard to call.  Clagett and Hagen both enjoy strong support across the county. However, voters may decide they want to move forward and away from the past by choosing a new voice in either Duckett or Long.

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In the Republican at-large primary, Philip Dacey, a former City of Frederick alderman, is the front runner.  Who will come in second and capture the other at-large seat will likely be a close contest between Justin Kiska who is running again after losing in 2014 and Jason Miller. Danny Farrar is the other Republican candidate in this contest.

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The Republican primary race in county council district 2 between incumbent Tony Chmelik and challenger Steve McKay is another to watch closely.  Their positions on growth once again being the focus.  McKay is a supporter of Democratic county executive Jan Gardner so it will be interesting should McKay win the Republican primary to see if Gardner will support him over Democratic candidate Lisa Jarosinki who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary.

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Look to see Republican Kevin Grubb win the county council district 1 race against Dylan Diggs.  The winner will face incumbent and unopposed Democrat Jerry Donald in the General Election.

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Your vote matters - If you have not already cast your ballot during Early Voting, make sure you go to the polls on Tuesday June 26, 2018.

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Early Maneuvering Taking Place in Race for County Executive

George Wenschhof

The change to charter government in Frederick County, Maryland will go into effect with the 2014 election and early stage maneuvering is taking place in the county executive race.

Under charter, voters will elect a county executive and a seven member part time county council; five of the members being elected by districts and two of the members elected at large.

Former three term commissioner and president of the board; Democrat Jan Gardner is the only candidate who has filed to date for the county executive position.  A position that many will argue will be the most powerful in county politics.

With the announcement by Gardner, the more than twenty year battle over how the county should grow, is likely to continue.  Her official announcement has set up a colossal and much anticipated contest between Jan Gardner and Frederick board of commissioners’ president Blaine Young.

However, Young has put off announcing his intention until next year. 

In the 2006 election, four Democratic and Republican commissioner candidates formed a slate and ran for more managed growth. They called themselves “the dream team”.  The four candidates were; Jan Gardner (D), Kai Hagen (D), David Gray (R) and John Thompson (R).

In the 2010 election, the pendulum swung yet again and a “pro-business” slate of Republican candidates, led by Blaine Young were elected.

All of the members of the 2006-2010 dream team, including Gray were present to offer their support when Gardner made her recent announcement for county executive. David Gray, who received the top votes from the majority elected commissioners and won the President of the Board in the 2006 election, relinquished the gravel and allowed Jan Gardner to assume the position of president of the board. 

Which leads one to ask; why is Gray making noise he may run for county executive?  What is happening is early maneuvering by Republicans and Democrats.

Gardner, is trying to clear the field for an uncontested Democratic primary and there are political forces at work to try to encourage a more balanced candidate to run in the Democratic primary.  Some would argue a more developer friendly candidate to run against her.

Many of the supporters of Gardner are tied by their extreme dislike for board president Blaine Young, whose popularity has dropped tremendously over his three years in office.

Young’s reckless obsession to pursue privatization of government services, his instituting a questionable 25 year Developer Rights and Responsibility Agreement and his move to rezone a large portion of the county, has given them plenty of reason to be angry during the first three years he has served as president.

Some of the Gardner supporters believe it is supporters of Young who are trying to get a Democrat to run against her and so some of these folks believe Gray challenging Young in the Republican primary would be tit-for-tat.

It is extremely unlikely Gray would run against Gardner, if she would win the Democratic primary, making this scenario likely another rumor in the musical chairs taking place among local politicians.

Being the only candidate who has filed for county executive makes Jan Gardner the favorite at the moment.

However, lots of names have been floated with plenty of scenarios.  One has Republican state senator David Brinkley running for county executive and Blaine Young, with a residence change, running for state senator in district 4.

Another, has Republican sheriff Chuck Jenkins running for county executive. 

Don’t hold your breath for either of those rumors to become reality.

I reported after interviewing local attorney and Democrat Gordon Cooley, he had given it serious consideration but decided not to pursue a run.  Another Democratic I will be interviewing and who has had his name floated is former East Alco executive Earl Robbins.

Republican county commissioner Billy Shreve has also been mentioned, but he is not considered a strong candidate.

Look to see a contested race for county executive in both the Republican and Democratic primaries when the rapidly approaching February 25 deadline to file for candidacy, arrives.

This will be good for the voters of Frederick County – they deserve a choice.

Stay tuned.

Impressive Names Being Floated for County Executive

George Wenschhof


Blaine Young

Jan Gardner

Frederick County voters will, for the first time, elect a county executive and council in the 2014 state/county election.

The change to charter government was approved by referendum in the 2012 election.

The significant difference is voters will elect a county executive to be the administrator of Frederick County government and a council to complete the balance of power prevalent in American democracy.

The two names, everyone already has in their minds, which are likely to run for county executive are current Frederick Board of County Commissioners (BoCC) president Blaine Young (R) and former three term member and BoCC president Jan Gardner (D).

If, these two would become candidates and end up facing each other in a general election, it would be a classic battle between distinctly different political ideologies.  In addition, there is no love lost between these two.

Furthermore, the campaign cost is expected to easily reach $250,000 and the figure of $500,000 is entirely possible.  Blaine Young, who flirted with a run for Governor, already has an impressive war chest.

Blaine, has yet to formally announce he is running, leaving some aspiring Republican candidates hanging, as they know they would not be able to beat him in the primary.

There are also some who wish to see long term BoCC member David Gray (R), run against Blaine in the Republican primary, thinking he would at least weaken Blaine prior to the general election.  It is merely wishful thinking on their part, due to Gray has no history of raising funds and would likely get trounced by Blaine Young in the primary.

Jan Gardner, who I reported had established a candidate committee one month ago, is busy raising cash, calling on donors daily as she moves closer to filing for the seat.

But, before this colossal confrontation can take place, there are other influential individuals in the community who are considering a run for county executive, throwing a potential monkey wrench in the much anticipated Young-Gardner duel.

There are two impressive names who have surfaced; Gordon Cooley and Earl Robbins, both of them have extensive business and community involvement in Frederick County.  Cooley is a registered Democrat and when last checked, so was Robbins.

Cooley served 19 years as general counsel for F&M Bancorp and was recently the regional president for PNC Bank.

Robbins was a long term Alcoa Eastalco executive, with government relations experience in Annapolis, who presently chairs The City of Frederick downtown hotel/conference center committee.

Robbins and Cooley also served on the Frederick county board of education and chamber of commerce.

Cooley is chair of the Weinberg center for The Arts, a member of Interfaith Housing Alliance, and former president of the Frederick County Bar Association.

Robbins is vice chair of Frederick County Business Development Advisory Committee, on the Hood College Board of Associates and was a alternate member of the charter writing board.

Word is Gordon Cooley is making the rounds, talking with folks as he contemplates a run for county executive.

Jan Gardner would be faced with a formidable opponent in either Cooley or Robbins, who are well known in the professional community.

However, Jan would have an initial edge in direct political experience, in campaigning and voter identification. 

A closely contested and costly Democratic primary might serve to Blaine Young’s advantage.

On the otherhand, Blaine may not fare well against a seasoned professional businessman as his Democratic opponent.

Look to see announcements made by candidates for county executive to happen shortly after The City of Frederick election on November 5.  Candidates will not want their campaign announcement to get lost in the holiday hoopla that begins with Thanksgiving and lasts into early January.

Stay tuned.

 

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