Frederick County MD 2010 Election Forecast

George Wenschhof

Predicting local elections is not easy as many factors in addition to political party affiliation influence how a voters casts their ballot. However, for the fun of the exercise, what follows are my predictions for the local 2010 elections.

Democratic Governor O'Malley will receive 42-43% of the vote and Republican former governor Robert Ehrlich will receive 56-57% of the vote with "Other" receiving 1-2%. Statewide, I see a repeat of the 2006 election won by O'Malley by 5%. Interestingly, Ehrlich won 19 of the 24 Maryland counties in that election and lost - I'm saying this could happen again as O'Malley will win Baltimore, Montgomery, and Prince Georges counties along with the City of Baltimore. Frederick County voter registration is about 4% of the statewide voter registration.

Peter Franchot for Comptroller, Doug Gansler for Attorney General and Barbara Mikulski will all win and look to see Mikulski receive 50% in Frederick County.

Democrat Andrew Duck will find the third time is not the charm as Republican Roscoe Bartlett will win again with 57% of the vote. Duck received no help from the DCCC which clearly showed they considered this race a lost cause as they concentrated on the district 1 race between incumbent Democrat Frank Kratovil who is facing Republican Andrew Harris in what is a "pick-em" race.

Duck would have been competitive and probably won had he run for delegate in district 3-b as I advised him close to two years ago.

The state senator race in district 3 will be another very close race between three term incumbent Republican Alex Mooney and Democrat Ron Young. This should be the year ineffective Mooney is defeated. But, with the national trend going away from Democrats and the fact Mooney is a very good campaigner, I rate this race very close with Young winning by several percentage points - a pick up for state Democrats.

The state senate race in district 4 will not be close with incumbent Republican David Brinkley winning easily against Democrat Sara Lou Trescott.

The two delegates elected in district 3-a will most likely be split between Democrat incumbent Galen Clagett and former Republican delegate Pat Hogan. Democrats are telling me they are splitting their ticket and voting for these two which spells bad news for Democratic candidate Candy Greenway. The only way Greenway wins is if women vote gender over substance. Republican Scott Rolle will be competitive due to name recognition from his many years serving as State's Attorney. However, his lack of campaigning, will ensure his defeat. This election will be a one seat pick up for Republicans.

In district 3-b, Republican Michael Hough will beat Democrat Paul Gilligan, who is attempting to win this seat for the third time. In spite of former Republican delegates Rick Weldon and Charles Jenkins endorsing Gilligan, Hough will win easily.

The district 4-a race promises to be an interesting one to watch election night. Democrats have not represented this district for quite some time, but that could change as Democrat Ryan Trout has run a very competitive campaign. His long time family name, well known in the district, will also benefit him.

In addition, the hard fought Republican primary which resulted in split votes and a loss by incumbent Paul Stull and the retirement of incumbent Joseph Bartlett makes this a good possibility of a pick up by Democrats.

Look to see Republican Kelly Schulz lead the ticket with Trout beating Republican Kathy Afzali. Democrat Bonita Currey was added to the ballot by the local central committee when no one filed. She is a good woman and long time volunteer in local Democratic activities who would serve the voters well in Annapolis. She deserves credit for agreeing to run, however, she will not win this contest.

Do not look to see "unaffiliated" candidate Scott Guenther receive more than 5% of the vote.

Republican incumbent Donald Elliott will easily win the delegate seat in district 4-b against perennial Democratic candidate Timothy Schlauch.

The county commissioner race promises to be one to watch when the votes are counted on election day. Party affiliation of the candidates will have some impact, but the candidate positions on "growth' v. "no-growth" and "incinerator" v. "no incinerator" will also impact voters when they cast their ballots.

This is only race where I endorsed candidates and they were Blaine Young, Linda Norris, Michael Kurtianyk, Paul Smith and Billy Shreve. You can read more on my position here.

Look to see how incumbent David Gray does as his outcome will have a big impact on the composition of the board. If he benefits from Democratic votes who support his anti-growth positions and receives support from Republicans who are voting "R", he could win again.

I see his ineffective representation and the absence on the ballot of Republican John "Lenny" Thompson and Democrat Jan Gardner, who has endorsed Gray, resulting in him being "retired" by the voters.

Sub-plots which will effect voters are the Girl Scout "cookie" lawsuit fiasco of candidate Janice Wiles, the resignation letter (published on TheTenacle.com) from long time County employee Mike Marschner blaming Kai Hagen for his action, and the Maryland Gazette article written by Sherry Greenfield on candidate Kirby Delauter saying he intended to continue to bid on construction projects through his company with the County, if elected. All will have a negative impact on these candidates.

Democrat Kai Hagen is unlikely to receive Republican support and his "all blow and no go" representation has caused him to lose Democratic votes as well. He can be elected, but is more likely to finish fourth or fifth.

Blaine Young is the most likely next president of the board, regardless of the political party composition of members of the board. This, due to the change made by the current board making the new president the top vote getter as opposed to the one with highest vote of the majority party on the board.

Paul Smith is also very likely to win and could finish second behind Blaine Young.

I see Ellis Burruss, Janice Wiles and Kirby Delauter all finishing out of the top five.

Which leaves Michael Kurtianyk, Linda Norris, Billy Shreve and David Gray battling for the other two seats on the board.

Norris and Shreve will have a hard time receiving votes from their opposite political party. Whereas, Kurtianyk will receive Republican support and also receive more Democrat support than he did in the primary when a small voter turn out took place - this gives him an edge to claim one of the two remaining seats.

As I said earlier, if the voters agree with me that it is time to retire David Gray, I see Norris edging out Shreve for the remaining slot on the board. Otherwise, Gray is reelected with Kurtianyk, Shreve and Norris left battling for the last slot on the board, with Kurtianyk having the edge.

If voters join me in not voting for Hagen and Gray, the new board will be Young, Smith, Kurtianyk, Norris and Shreve.

Democratic voters in Frederick county did not have candidates in the election for State's Attorney, Register of Wills and Sheriff. So, Republican incumbents Charlie Smith, Virginia Fifer and Chuck Jenkins will win reelection. Interestingly, these three elected positions are also the highest paid local positions on the ballot.

In the Clerk of The Circuit Court race, incumbent Republican Sandra Dalton will win with 60% of the vote over Democratic challenger Mari lee.

The 3 elected Judges of The Orphans Court is a hard race to predict. Democratic candidate Rosemary McDermott is an attorney which is a plus, but has little name recognition so I do not look to see her win one of the three slots. Democrat Ted Jenson is known by Democratic activists due to his volunteers efforts over the years, but he also is not well known across the county and is unlikely to win. Democrat Maggie Hays could win one of the three seats.

Look to see Republican Cleopatra Campbell, who is also an attorney win along with Republican Adrian Remsberg who benefits from some name recognition across the county. Former Republican county commissioner Mike Cady could bounce back from his loss and win a seat if voters have forgotten his "sock-puppet" debacle in the 2006 county commissioner campaign. Cliff Cumber of The Frederick News Post wrote an article on this (published on October 6, 2006) you can read here.

The Clerk of The Circuit Court, Orphans Court Judges, and Sherrif are positions which I have long held should not be on the ballot and instead be merit based positions. I wrote a column on this which was published on TheTentacle.com on October 30, 2006 you can read here.

One statewide question on the ballot voters will cast their vote on, will require Orphan's Court Judges in the City of Baltimore to be qualified and a member in good standing of the Maryland state bar. This should receive a "Yes" vote as it is long overdo and when passed, should initiate similar changes across the state. The Baltimore Sun also endorsed this change.

This concludes my local election analysis. Now, it is up to you to vote and make the decision as to who will represent you - make sure you go to the polls tomorrow - as is always the case, your vote does make a difference!

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Primary Nears for Frederick County State Delegate and Senate Races

George Wenschhof

Last Friday, I wrote about the debut of "Early Voting" in Maryland and opined on the outcome of the Frederick County vote in the county commissioner race. Voters will decide in the Primary Election the five Republicans and five Democrats who will move on to the General Election held on November 2. You can read that column here.

Today, I will look at the state senate and state delegate races in Frederick County, Maryland. The county is roughly split in half with the the northern and western regions falling into district 4 and the central and southern regions falling into district 3. In each district, voters elect one state senator and three state delegates.

District 4 has long been dominated by Republican representation due to a large voter registration advantage. There is no reason to expect a change in party affiliation in this year's election with Republican incumbents favored to win reelection. However, the race for the open delegate seat in district 4-a where voters elect two delegates, could be interesting between the many Republican candidates vying for it.

Incumbent Republican Joe Bartlett, who was elected in 1998 with the strength of his father's name (MD Sixth district Congressman Roscoe Bartlett), decided not to run after revelations of his using state funds to pay his girlfriend rent came to light. As a result, a slew of Republicans filed to run for this open seat.

One time Democrat, and now Republican Dino Flores is joined by Frederick County Republican Central Committee chair Kelly Schultz, long term county commissioner John "Lennie" Thompson and Kathy Afzali. Of these four, look to see John Thompson win and move on to the General Election.

Local attorney Flores is certainly qualified, but doubtful to win more votes than Thompson. Afzali has been battling her fellow Republicans by trying to claim she is more Rush Limbaugh "like" than they and using the phrase "don't let the good old boys win". It is highly unlikely her strategy will be successful. Frederick county Republican chair Kelly Schultz will be competitive, but the name recognition of Thompson will be hard to overcome.

Look to see the vote difference between the Republicans. If Stull wins, but the vote is close, it may indicate this is his last term in office.

Incumbent Republican Paul Stull, who was first elected in 1994, is the other Republican expected to win the primary. He succeeded Tom Hattery, the last Democrat to hold that seat. Hattery challenged and beat Democratic Beverley Byron in the Democratic primary for the western Maryland 6th district congressional seat. He was beat by Republican candidate Roscoe Bartlett, who is still in office and running for reelection.

Scott Geunthner is an "Unaffiliated" candidate on the ballot after securing enough signatures to be listed. Do not expect him to impact the race in any significant manner.

The local Democratic party, which has struggled for some time to field competitive candidates in this race, continued the trend, with only one candidate Ryan Trout filing for the two delegate seats. The Democratic party added Bonita Curry to the ballot after the filing deadline had expired. While Ryan Trout is a newcomer to politics, Ms. Curry has long been involved in volunteer efforts for Democratic candidates. They will not have a contested primary to show off their positions on issues which would benefit the voters in district 4-a should they be elected. While they will both move on, they are not expected to be competitive in the General Election.

In district 4-b, where voters will elect one delegate, the lone Democratic candidate is Timothy Schlauch. He has run a multitude of times and deserves credit for having done so. While he will move on to the General Election, do not expect him to beat incumbent Republican Donald Elliot who was first elected in 1986. However, at age 78, one has to be thinking how many more years will he run for office. Elliot is facing a contested primary against Kathryn Freed. But, it should not be close.

Popular district 4 state senator David Brinkley received a bye from the media in regard to his domestic problems with his wife resulting from his tryst with his administrative assistant. As a result, he is easily favored to win reelection.

In the primary, he will face little known Republican Kathryn Freed. The only Democrat to file, Sara Lou Trescott will move on to face Brinkley in the General Election. It will be interesting to see if Brinkley's alleged infidelity with an aide will be brought up after the primary.

In district 3, it is again the Republicans who have contested battles with Democrats having an interesting match up for state senate.

In district 3-a, where voters will elect two delegates, the Democrats have an uncontested primary with incumbent Galen Clagett and Candy Greenway.

Democratic delegate Sue Hecht's retirement has created an open seat and expect the Republicans to be very competitive and possibly pick up a seat in this district which favors Democrats in voter registration. Ms. Hecht's support by the voters exceeded her effectiveness in Annapolis, making this open seat vulnerable for Democrats.

Ms. Greenway's frequent appearances on the local cable political talk show "Pressing Issues" earned her the nickname "Clueless Candy" as her comments on issues showed her lack of knowledge. So, it is dubious as to how well she will do against Republican opponents in the general election.

Incumbent delegate Galen Clagett has done an excellent job representing the voters in district 3 and deserves another term in Annapolis. His membership on powerful state committees, including Appropriations, is a benefit to Frederick County.

Former delegate Pat Hogan will be favored to finish on top in the Republican primary and could easily win in the General Election, making this a pick up seat for Republicans. He lost to delegate Galen Clagett by only a couple of hundred votes four years ago.

Chris Huckenpoehler and Chuck Knapp are a toss-up in the battle for the other Republican seat. Huckenpoehler made it through the primary in last year's City of Frederick alderman race, but fared poorly in the General Election.

Another Republican; Scott Rolle will appear on the ballot, even though he has withdrawn from the race. A well known former Frederick County State's Attorney, his inclusion on the ballot may confuse some voters.

In district 3-b, where voters elect one delegate, the battle is between Republicans Charles Jenkins and Michael Hough, who are vying for the open seat vacated by Rick Weldon when he went to work for the City of Frederick.

Much Republican infighting has transpired in this race, beginning with the appointment of former Frederick County Commissioner Charles Jenkins to replace the departed Rick Weldon.

Michael Hough has a huge fund raising advantage on Jenkins and also enjoys the support of state senator Alex Mooney and Frederick County Commissioner Blaine Young.

Hough has also used the I'm more conservative than you and I signed a "no tax increase" pledge against Jenkins. While Jenkin's claim to fame has been proposed legislation combating illegal immigration. Look to see this race be much closer than the supporters of both candidates would prefer.

It would appear this is an excellent opportunity for Democrats to take advantage of the turmoil within the Republican party and pick up a seat.

Unfortunately, only perennial candidate Paul Gilligan is on the ballot and the Republicans will catch a break. A nice guy who has sound positions on environmental and land management issues, he has been unable to catch on with voters in this district.

This will mark the third time Gilligan has run for this position and the second time he will be the Democratic party nominee. Don't look to see the third time be the charm for the former Mayor of Burkittsville,

The state senate race in district 3 promises to be close and one to watch election night. It is also a good possibility for a pick up for Democrats.

The Democratic winner will face three term incumbent Republican Alex Mooney.

Don DeArmon will be facing Ron Young in the Democratic primary. Unlike, when Mr. Young defeated Mayor Jennifer Dougherty in the 2005 City of Frederick primary, there has been little to no friction or turmoil in this state senate Democratic primary.

Hopefully, this bodes well for the Democratic nominee and the winner will go on to defeat ineffective state senator Alex Mooney.

Both Democratic candidates are well known in district 3-a with Ron being a former four term mayor of the City of Frederick and Don DeArmon twice being the Democratic nominee for congress in the Maryland 6th congressional district.

Both have been supportive of Democratic candidates for all positions over the years. It is not unusual to see Mr. DeArmon's front and side yards, across from Culler Lake in Frederick, adorned with Democratic candidate signs.

Ron Young has once again shown his ability to place campaign signs everywhere, but remember, he did the same in the 2005 city election and lost to a political unknown; Republican Jeff Holtzinger.

Don DeArmon has much more cash on hand than does Ron Young which could be to his advantage when it come to closing the deal with voters through media, direct mail, and other get out the vote efforts.

However, Ron's secret weapon this time around is his wife Karen who is his campaign manager. Karen ran an excellent campaign for alderman in the City of Frederick election last year, finishing first and earning the mayor pro tem designation.

Mr. DeArmon's singular issue he has made a point of getting across to voters is he intends to "fix I-270". An ambitious task and one he hopes frustrated commuters can relate to.

A local business owner shared a story with me recently that sums up the primary race between these two Democrats. Upon his arrival home from work, his wife informed him she had met a nice man today who had stopped by the house. His name was Don DeArmon and he was running against Alex Mooney.

Her husband said to her I thought you were supporting Ron Young. She said oh, yes she was, but really liked Don DeArmon.

Stay Tuned....

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