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Predicting local elections is not easy as many factors in addition to political party affiliation influence how a voters casts their ballot. However, for the fun of the exercise, what follows are my predictions for the local 2010 elections.
Democratic Governor O'Malley will receive 42-43% of the vote and Republican former governor Robert Ehrlich will receive 56-57% of the vote with "Other" receiving 1-2%. Statewide, I see a repeat of the 2006 election won by O'Malley by 5%. Interestingly, Ehrlich won 19 of the 24 Maryland counties in that election and lost - I'm saying this could happen again as O'Malley will win Baltimore, Montgomery, and Prince Georges counties along with the City of Baltimore. Frederick County voter registration is about 4% of the statewide voter registration.
Peter Franchot for Comptroller, Doug Gansler for Attorney General and Barbara Mikulski will all win and look to see Mikulski receive 50% in Frederick County.
Democrat Andrew Duck will find the third time is not the charm as Republican Roscoe Bartlett will win again with 57% of the vote. Duck received no help from the DCCC which clearly showed they considered this race a lost cause as they concentrated on the district 1 race between incumbent Democrat Frank Kratovil who is facing Republican Andrew Harris in what is a "pick-em" race.
Duck would have been competitive and probably won had he run for delegate in district 3-b as I advised him close to two years ago.
The state senator race in district 3 will be another very close race between three term incumbent Republican Alex Mooney and Democrat Ron Young. This should be the year ineffective Mooney is defeated. But, with the national trend going away from Democrats and the fact Mooney is a very good campaigner, I rate this race very close with Young winning by several percentage points - a pick up for state Democrats.
The state senate race in district 4 will not be close with incumbent Republican David Brinkley winning easily against Democrat Sara Lou Trescott.
The two delegates elected in district 3-a will most likely be split between Democrat incumbent Galen Clagett and former Republican delegate Pat Hogan. Democrats are telling me they are splitting their ticket and voting for these two which spells bad news for Democratic candidate Candy Greenway. The only way Greenway wins is if women vote gender over substance. Republican Scott Rolle will be competitive due to name recognition from his many years serving as State's Attorney. However, his lack of campaigning, will ensure his defeat. This election will be a one seat pick up for Republicans.
In district 3-b, Republican Michael Hough will beat Democrat Paul Gilligan, who is attempting to win this seat for the third time. In spite of former Republican delegates Rick Weldon and Charles Jenkins endorsing Gilligan, Hough will win easily.
The district 4-a race promises to be an interesting one to watch election night. Democrats have not represented this district for quite some time, but that could change as Democrat Ryan Trout has run a very competitive campaign. His long time family name, well known in the district, will also benefit him.
In addition, the hard fought Republican primary which resulted in split votes and a loss by incumbent Paul Stull and the retirement of incumbent Joseph Bartlett makes this a good possibility of a pick up by Democrats.
Look to see Republican Kelly Schulz lead the ticket with Trout beating Republican Kathy Afzali. Democrat Bonita Currey was added to the ballot by the local central committee when no one filed. She is a good woman and long time volunteer in local Democratic activities who would serve the voters well in Annapolis. She deserves credit for agreeing to run, however, she will not win this contest.
Do not look to see "unaffiliated" candidate Scott Guenther receive more than 5% of the vote.
Republican incumbent Donald Elliott will easily win the delegate seat in district 4-b against perennial Democratic candidate Timothy Schlauch.
The county commissioner race promises to be one to watch when the votes are counted on election day. Party affiliation of the candidates will have some impact, but the candidate positions on "growth' v. "no-growth" and "incinerator" v. "no incinerator" will also impact voters when they cast their ballots.
This is only race where I endorsed candidates and they were Blaine Young, Linda Norris, Michael Kurtianyk, Paul Smith and Billy Shreve. You can read more on my position here.
Look to see how incumbent David Gray does as his outcome will have a big impact on the composition of the board. If he benefits from Democratic votes who support his anti-growth positions and receives support from Republicans who are voting "R", he could win again.
I see his ineffective representation and the absence on the ballot of Republican John "Lenny" Thompson and Democrat Jan Gardner, who has endorsed Gray, resulting in him being "retired" by the voters.
Sub-plots which will effect voters are the Girl Scout "cookie" lawsuit fiasco of candidate Janice Wiles, the resignation letter (published on TheTenacle.com) from long time County employee Mike Marschner blaming Kai Hagen for his action, and the Maryland Gazette article written by Sherry Greenfield on candidate Kirby Delauter saying he intended to continue to bid on construction projects through his company with the County, if elected. All will have a negative impact on these candidates.
Democrat Kai Hagen is unlikely to receive Republican support and his "all blow and no go" representation has caused him to lose Democratic votes as well. He can be elected, but is more likely to finish fourth or fifth.
Blaine Young is the most likely next president of the board, regardless of the political party composition of members of the board. This, due to the change made by the current board making the new president the top vote getter as opposed to the one with highest vote of the majority party on the board.
Paul Smith is also very likely to win and could finish second behind Blaine Young.
I see Ellis Burruss, Janice Wiles and Kirby Delauter all finishing out of the top five.
Which leaves Michael Kurtianyk, Linda Norris, Billy Shreve and David Gray battling for the other two seats on the board.
Norris and Shreve will have a hard time receiving votes from their opposite political party. Whereas, Kurtianyk will receive Republican support and also receive more Democrat support than he did in the primary when a small voter turn out took place - this gives him an edge to claim one of the two remaining seats.
As I said earlier, if the voters agree with me that it is time to retire David Gray, I see Norris edging out Shreve for the remaining slot on the board. Otherwise, Gray is reelected with Kurtianyk, Shreve and Norris left battling for the last slot on the board, with Kurtianyk having the edge.
If voters join me in not voting for Hagen and Gray, the new board will be Young, Smith, Kurtianyk, Norris and Shreve.
Democratic voters in Frederick county did not have candidates in the election for State's Attorney, Register of Wills and Sheriff. So, Republican incumbents Charlie Smith, Virginia Fifer and Chuck Jenkins will win reelection. Interestingly, these three elected positions are also the highest paid local positions on the ballot.
In the Clerk of The Circuit Court race, incumbent Republican Sandra Dalton will win with 60% of the vote over Democratic challenger Mari lee.
The 3 elected Judges of The Orphans Court is a hard race to predict. Democratic candidate Rosemary McDermott is an attorney which is a plus, but has little name recognition so I do not look to see her win one of the three slots. Democrat Ted Jenson is known by Democratic activists due to his volunteers efforts over the years, but he also is not well known across the county and is unlikely to win. Democrat Maggie Hays could win one of the three seats.
Look to see Republican Cleopatra Campbell, who is also an attorney win along with Republican Adrian Remsberg who benefits from some name recognition across the county. Former Republican county commissioner Mike Cady could bounce back from his loss and win a seat if voters have forgotten his "sock-puppet" debacle in the 2006 county commissioner campaign. Cliff Cumber of The Frederick News Post wrote an article on this (published on October 6, 2006) you can read here.
The Clerk of The Circuit Court, Orphans Court Judges, and Sherrif are positions which I have long held should not be on the ballot and instead be merit based positions. I wrote a column on this which was published on TheTentacle.com on October 30, 2006 you can read here.
One statewide question on the ballot voters will cast their vote on, will require Orphan's Court Judges in the City of Baltimore to be qualified and a member in good standing of the Maryland state bar. This should receive a "Yes" vote as it is long overdo and when passed, should initiate similar changes across the state. The Baltimore Sun also endorsed this change.
This concludes my local election analysis. Now, it is up to you to vote and make the decision as to who will represent you - make sure you go to the polls tomorrow - as is always the case, your vote does make a difference!
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For twenty years, residents of Frederick County Maryland have been governed by either a "pro-growth" or "anti-growth" Board of County Commissioners.
Rather than continuing the swing from one ideology to another, it is time for voters to elect a more centrist and balanced board. This will result in a more reasoned approach in addressing issues such as the impending reduction of the budget, creating jobs closer to home, charter government, growth and the disposal of trash.
Electing recently appointed Commissioner Blaine Young, Michael Kurtianyk, Paul Smith, Billy Shreve and Linda Norris will ensure a more balanced approach to decision making takes place over the next four years.
Incumbent commissioners Kai Hagen and David Gray are painful examples of the outdated five headed commissioner form of government.
Mr. Hagen obviously never learned the truth in the old saying which explains why we are born with two ears and one mouth (so, we listen twice as much as we talk), as he speaks incessantly, while often saying nothing.
A long term community activist and first term commissioner, he also never learned the difference between being an activist and an elected official, leading to his ineffectiveness as a commissioner over the last four years.
Mr. Gray either displayed his lack of understanding of the importance of becoming president of the board or his unwillingness to accept the responsibility that comes with it, by relinquishing the gavel after winning it, in the election four years ago.
None of these characteristics are qualities one should look for in an elected official and neither Mr. Gray or Mr. Hagen deserve another term in office.
When the newly elected commissioners discuss the budget cuts sure to come, all programs and services will need to be examined. Special care should be given to those departments who provide services to those in need as the ranks of the unemployed and underemployed have grown as all county governments across the country struggle to rise out of the deepest recession since the great depression.
The firing of county employees should be the last resort in meeting needed budget reductions. Instead, a focus on not filling essential positions and/or a hiring freeze should be examined. If employees still need to be laid off, the focus should be on mid level management positions, who often are a result of previous funding increases.
Creating jobs closer to home should be a priority of the new board of commissioners as way too many Frederick County residents continue a daily time consuming commute. Commissioner Blaine Young has made this a priority in his campaign.
One suggestion for the new Board is to work with the state legislature as well as our Representative in Congress to promote tax incentives for businesses who provide telecommuting to employees a minimum of one day a week. Passage of this legislation would be a great start in helping Frederick County residents reduce their weekly commute time.
A win-win proposal which would save energy, help employers with job retention and recruitment, while allowing employees more time to spend with family.
Creating a charter writing committee by the new board is one of the first things the new Board of Commissioners should do. The charge of the committee should be to complete the document, providing time for public input, with the question put to the voters in the 2012 presidential election. Once passed by the voters, it would go into effect for the 2014 election.
During the charter writing period, the committee should hold regional meetings throughout the county. The purpose of the meetings would be to provide the public with updated information on the progress of the charter document and to ask for comment and suggestions.
Moving to a county executive and county council will make for a much more effective form of government for Frederick county residents and is long overdo.
When it comes to issues relating to growth, the main concern has rightfully been to ensure infrastructure (schools, roads, water, sewer, fire and rescue) keeps pace with new growth.
While an Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (APFO) has been passed and impact fees instituted over the last twenty years, they have not made a noticeable difference in this area.
When attending first and second grade at Parkway Elementary School, I shared a classroom with students in the second and third grade due to overcrowded schools. At that time (1959-1960), the population of the county was about one-third of what it is today.
Years, after enacting well intentioned impact fees and the APFO, portables have replaced split classrooms, older schools remain badly in need of repair and new planned schools stand in line for funding, hardly a measurable improvement.
Roads remain congested and water and sewer availability remain a consistent problem associated with growth.
The new board would serve the residents well by reaching out to a nonpartisan research and think tank to review the results of the enacted growth policies of the last twenty years and if necessary, propose a new means of raising the needed revenue. The University of Maryland Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise may be one who would provide the research.
Whether a fee is involved or not, a professional review of existing ordinances and regulations should be undertaken immediately.
In addition, the nonpartisan organization should be charged with both reviewing the current county development approval process and proposing a better, more effective and efficient way, than the existing time consuming and costly process.
As location has always been pivotal to buyers of real estate, Frederick County has always been destined to grow.
The discussion of growth should not be an adversarial exercise in Frederick County. Rather, the discussion should be one that leads to effective land management principles which benefit the entire community.
When it comes to the disposal of trash, where and how will always be a controversial decision for elected officials. While the cost of building the approved incinerator is a whopping 300 million plus, opponents led by Commissioner Kai Hagen have failed to offer a reasonable option.
Moving from a current county recycling rate of slightly more than thirty per cent to a rate not needing a landfill or an incinerator is not a realistic alternative. Continuing to truck waste out of state is not a viable answer.
One reasonable and less expensive alternative that should have received more consideration is another landfill or expansion of the existing landfill to serve the need of trash disposal in Frederick County which I wrote about two years ago.
What I proposed was a cost-benefit analysis be done between a landfill and an incinerator. Also, a similar effort made to identify possible locations for a landfill should take place as was done for an incinerator.
Candidate Michael Kurtianyk during a recent sit down interview said he would like to see the county investigate acquiring the former East Alco site in southern Frederick County to be used either for a landfill or incinerator site.
An interesting suggestion, as the acreage could also incorporate a regional compost facility and a resource recovery park.
The dramatic swing between "pro-growth" and "no-growth" boards over the last twenty years has been detrimental to the residents of Frederick County and needs to come to an end in this election.
With the election of Blaine Young, Michael Kurtianyk, Paul Smith, Billy Shreve, and Linda Norris, a balance of reason and experience will prevail over the next four years.
Blaine Young has the political experience which will be a benefit in dealing with the many issues facing county residents today.
Paul Smith, like Blaine Young, has the experience of serving as a City of Frederick alderman. An attorney, he will bring a welcomed reasoned approach to the issues.
Billy Shreve has long been involved in the community serving on boards and commissions. His time spent as chair of the Frederick County Board of Zoning Appeals and as a member of the City of Frederick Planning Commission will be invaluable.
Michael Kurtianyk has shown throughout the campaign his willingness to put principles in front of party. A refreshing approach to the issues from a politician and one which will be appreciated by the residents of Frederick County.
Linda Norris, with experience in working both in the public and private sector will be a added plus as a member of the Board.
Her time spent as Public Information Officer and as Director of Recycling for Frederick County Government will serve her well as commissioner.
The election is only four week away. Make sure you visit candidate websites, read voter guides and most important vote on November 2.
Your vote is important and does make a difference.
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