With
only three days until General Election Day Nov. 6, the following includes some
musings on local elections in Frederick County, Maryland.
One
thing to look for as the ballots are tallied is the coattails by Maryland
Governor Larry Hogan (R) and County Executive Jan Gardner (D) on positions down
ballot in Frederick County.
Governor Race
Ben
Jealous, the Democratic candidate for Governor is trailing significantly
(double digits) in polling and has to hope for a much higher Democratic voter
turnout than four years ago. Jealous
will be looking for higher Democratic turnout in Prince George’s County,
Baltimore City and Montgomery County.
Their campaign goal has been one million more voters than 2014. If they
get it, look to see a Jealous win.
Four
years ago Republican Larry Hogan beat Democratic Lt. Governor Anthony Brown by
65,000 votes (51%-47.2%).
At
the end of early voting Democrats are outvoting Republicans (423,562-155,685)
and in Prince George’s County (Dem: 90,120 – Rep: 4,933), Baltimore City (Dem:
42,176 – Rep: 2,055) and Montgomery County (Dem: 81,388 – Rep: 14,518).
Democratic
registered voters outnumber Republican registered voters in Maryland 2-1, yet
Hogan won 4 years ago. Again, polling
indicates an easy Hogan win. However,
keep an eye on voter turnout on Election Day.
A Blue Wave could propel Jealous to victory.
As a
result, in this election, many local Republicans have been running with a “Team
Hogan” slogan where Frederick County voters in the 2014 general election went
for Hogan (Hogan: 50,715 – Brown: 27,682)
Frederick County Executive
I
interviewed all three candidates for county executive and published a question
and answer with them in an article in
The Urbana Town Courier.
Democratic
incumbent county executive Jan Gardner has clearly demonstrated over the last
four years and throughout the numerous campaign forums during this campaign, she
is the most competent candidate for county executive.
Kathy
Afzali, the Republican candidate for county executive has extensively used
“Team Hogan” throughout her campaign hoping Hogan, who is favored to win
Frederick County, will help her to victory as well.
However,
the unaffiliated run by Earl Robbins, an experienced businessman who has been
active in the community for years who is hoped by some political insiders to
have a negative impact on Gardner in this race, could actually boomerang and
help Gardner.
The
local Republican Party is fractured with the old guard favoring councilman
Kirby Delauter who ran for county executive and was beat in the primary
election by Kathy Afzali. He has been urging his Republican supporters to vote
for Robbins over Afzali.
How
to best manage growth continues to be the main issue in countywide Frederick
County elections and ironically both Afzali and Gardner are running ads saying they
have the best answer for runaway growth in the county. Interestingly, Afzali who was a Maryland
state delegate when Republican Blaine Young was president of the board of
commissioners, never opposed the growth policies enacted by his board who I labeled
“Blaine and Company” resulting from
their pro-growth and business friendly policies they passed while in office.
In a
recent article I point
out voter registration in the county shows Democrats (37.2%) and Republicans
(38.7%) are essentially tied. Over the last 16 years Republican registration
has dropped 7.6% and Unaffiliated gained 7%.
Democratic registration stayed at 37.2%.
So, it can be expected unaffiliated voters will vote more Democratic
than Republican and with an unaffiliated county executive candidate, some will
vote for Robbins. However, unaffiliated
is not a political party so do not look for them to automatically vote for
Robbins. Look, instead for unaffiliated
voters to break Democratic.
Look
to see the most qualified candidate Jan Gardner win the county executive race with
Earl Robbins receiving less than 15% of the vote – Kudos to him for being the
first African American and Unaffiliated candidate to run for countywide office
in Frederick County. However, Afzali could run a close race with Gardner
resulting from an effective campaign ad blitz and if Hogan wins big in Frederick
County. Afzali, with her last name
starting with “A”, is also at the top of the ballot and this positioning often
results in additional votes for a candidate.
At-Large Frederick County Council
In
this race, voters will be picking two out of the five candidates on the ballot. The two winners will be part of the seven
member council with the other five members elected by districts. I asked these
candidates, “What are the two most pressing issues facing Frederick County,
and what you would do to address them?” and their answers were published in
The Urbana Town Courier.
Danny
Farrar and Phil Dacey are the two Republicans running and out of these two,
Dacey, a former one term City of Frederick alderman, is likely to run a
competitive race. Four years ago both
Republican candidates Billy Shreve and Bud Otis won these two positions. With the change in voter registration I
pointed out earlier, Republican candidates are no longer favored to win
countywide races.
Incumbent
council president Bud Otis is running for reelection, but this time as an
Unaffiliated candidate. As a result of
his often siding with county executive Jan Gardner and the Democratic council
members and the often 4-3 vote outcome on growth issues, he came under fire
from fellow Republican council members Tony Chmelik, Billy Shreve and Kirby
Delauter. This would lead Otis to change
his political affiliation mid-term to unaffiliated. No unaffiliated candidate has won a
countywide election in Frederick County.
However, look to see well known Otis be competitive.
If
General Election voting mirrors the turnout in early voting where Democrats out
voted Republicans by 3,360 votes, look to see the two Democratic candidates be
at the top out of the five candidates for these two positions. Kai Hagen, a former one-term county
commissioner, is looking to reunite with Gardner who he ran successfully with 12
years ago with Republican candidate John “Lenny” Thompson and David Gray with
what they coined the “Dream Team”. The
Dream Team victory aided by the Thompson slogan “If Developers win, you lose!”
Hagen,
who has been out of office for eight years, received the top votes in the
primary election which makes him favored in the general election. However, Republican supporters of Billy
Shreve and Kirby Delauter who both lost their primary election races will not
support Hagen. Again, look to see who
has the stronger coattails in Frederick County.
If, Gardner wins easily, this will aid Hagen. However, with Afzali also running a campaign
to stop runaway growth, this will help Hagen as well.
Susan
Reeder Jessee ran for at-large four years ago and barely lost, coming in a
close third. A candidate whose parents were
actively involved in Frederick County politics, she is well respected across
party lines and if elected would exhibit traits many voters long for
today. As a result, Susan will receive
Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated votes.
Susan
has run hard throughout the campaign going to events across the entire county
and would be a positive addition to the Frederick County Council.
This
race will likely be very close.