Massachusetts Special Election Results and Musings

George Wenschhof

Democrats do not want to go 0-3 prior to mid term elections in November. While the Democratic party candidates have played a big part in the disappointing showings in the Governor races lost in Virginia and New Jersey and the closeness today in the U.S. senate race in Massachusetts, the Democratic party will take a big hit if Republican Scott Brown wins today.

At stake today is the shaky 60 vote filibuster proof Senate and passage of the major platform put forward by the Obama administration; health care reform.

I will add some tidbits here as the day goes on as well as the results after the polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

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David Axelrod, senior adviser to Obama said they would have done more for Coakley and sooner, if they had been asked. - ouch! to the Coakley campaign. You can read more here.

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This is in addition to the fund raising appeal the Obama campaign made on her behalf and his personal appearance yesterday. Today, they sent out an appeal to call Mass. voters to urge them to vote. Click here to help make calls.

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USA today says to watch how the towns: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody vote. All three went for Ted Kennedy over Republican Kenneth Chase in the last election by 69-31. If Brown wins these today, it may be over for Coakley.

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TPM has House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) saying that the House passing the Senate version of the health care bill is better then nothing.

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Politico.com has five things to watch as the returns come in from Mass. today. You can read them here.

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3:50 PM - David shuster says no news organizationa are doing exit polls in Mass. today. Folks will have to wait until after polls close at 8:00 PM.

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TPM says Ted Kennedy was seated the day after he won 1962 special election. Will Republicans demand the same if Brown wins today? Most likely seating will be 10-15 days after election which is when the vote is certified.

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Voter turnout in Boston as of noon was 55,309 - only 3,000 lower than 2006 mid term election. State officials still calling for a turnout in the 1.6 to 2.2 million range.

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With no exit polls being conducted the earliest vote totals are expected around 9:30 PM.

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Democrat Coakley sent out a media advisory at 5:30 PM concerning ballot irregularities - alleging some ballots were given out that already had Republican Brown marked. Stay tuned - this is most likely preemptive if Coakley loses.

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8:00 PM ET - polls are now closed - will post results as they become available.

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9:00 PM ET - 52% reporting, Brown - 52% 587,389, Coakley - 47%, 520,311. Does not look good for Coakley with total turnout looking like it will meet early expectations of 1.6-2.2 million.

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9:15 PM ET - 60% reporting, Brown-53%, 694,897, Coakley-46%, 607,073

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9:25 PM ET - 71% precincts reporting, Brown-53%, 822,901 and Coakley - 46%, 720,460. The possible votes for Coakley are diminishing - will be hard for her to pick up 200,000 votes at this point. Look to see the race called soon.

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9:33 PM ET - Coakley concedes, AP calls it for Brown. 79% precincts reporting-Brown - 53%, 907,421. Coakley - 47%, 811,036.

Well that's it! Republicans and Tea Party activists will be rejoicing across the country tonight. Democrats and the Obama administration will need to regroup, in particular in regard to health care reform. President Obama will need to demonstrate strong leadership skills at this point to keep Democrats together and focused and away from the finger pointing and blame game.

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9:44 PM ET - 87% Precincts reporting. Brown - 52%, 996,990. Coakley - 47%, 887,754.

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9:55 PM ET - 93% precincts reporting. Brown - 52%, 1,075,385. Coakley - 47%, 962,837.

Massachusetts Secretary of State William Gavin says he will immediately send a letter to Brown saying he has won the race, referencing the unofficial results. Gavin indicated the seating of members of the House were not delayed based on this type of letter. However, it is likely the Senate will require certification by Gavin which he will not be able to do for ten days per state constitution pertaining to the counting of all ballots - that means absentee, military and overseas which are not done for ten days following the election. Pay attention to this reasoning for the passage of health care reform may hinge on the seating date of Scott Brown in the Senate.

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10:18 PM ET - 97% Precincts reporting. Brown - 52%, 1,127,561. Coakley - 47%, 1,013,451. The cold, snow and rain did not stop the strong voter turnout earlier today. Coakley did narrow the 200,000 vote difference, but not enough.

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10:50 PM ET - 99% Precincts reporting. Brown - 52%, 1,153,808. Coakley - 47%, 1,052,391.

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