George Wenschhof
With four weeks to go to the mid term elections, the battle for control of Congress is intense and close. Expect to be bombarded with candidate commercials on television and inundated with candidate brochures in your mailbox.
According to an average of recent polling data by www.Electoral-vote.com , the Senate is currently barely Democrat with 50 to 49 for Republicans with one race tied. The tied race is out in Washington between Patty Murphy (D) and Dino Rossi (R).
There are eight other Senate races to watch closely. They are as follows:
Nevada - Harry Reid (D) 48%, Sharon Angel (R) 47% look to see Reid hang on
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D) 43%
Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) 48%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) 53%, Russ Feingold (D) 44% strong possibility of GOP win
Illinois - Mark Kirk (R) 41%, Alex Giannoulias (D) 40% - both candidates have negative baggage and there is still a large number of undecided - makes this a "pick-em" contest.
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 46% - Look to see Blumenthal win.
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey (R) - 46%, Pat Sestak (D) 38% - Look to see Republicans take back the Arlen Specter seat.
W. Virginia - John Raese (R) - 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 46% - a surprise the race is being led by a Republican. Look to see Manchin win this seat.
At this point, Democrats will maintain control of the Senate. However, they will lose 5-7 seats from the 59 currently held by Democrats which includes two Independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats.
www.RealClearPolitics.com has it Democrats - 48, Republicans - 47 with five too close to call races.
The House is even more muddled as all 435 seats are up for election. Republicans need to pick up a net of 39 seats to gain a slim majority.
www.RealClearPolitics.com has it currently at Republicans with 207, Democrats with 190 and 38 toss-ups. Not a good sign for democrats as Republicans would only need to win a third of the 38 toss-up elections to win a majority in the House.
Electoral-vote.com has it currently at Democrats with 204, Republicans with 190 and 40 toss-up elections. This analysis favors Democrats as they would only need to win a third of the toss-up elections to maintain their majority.
At this point, future control of the House continue to be a question, but Democrats appear to maintain the Senate.
Next Monday, we will publish another update. Stay Tuned...
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Monday, October 4, 2010
Race for Congress Update
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Join Obama in Maryland
The following is from an email sent today from Organizing for America (OFA):
This Thursday, President Obama is holding a rally at Bowie State University.
He'll be getting us fired up for the final stretch of our Vote 2010 campaign -- and making sure we all know how important it is that we keep moving America forward. And he'll be joined by Governor O'Malley, Senator Mikulski, and several other great Democratic leaders in Maryland.
Can you join the President in Bowie?
Here are the details:
What: Rally with President Barack Obama,
Governor Martin O'Malley,
Senator Barbara Mikulski,
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,
Congresswoman Donna Edwards, and
Congressman Chris Van Hollen
Where: Bowie State University
14000 Jericho Park Road
Bowie, Maryland 20715
When: Thursday, October 7th
Doors open: 1:00 p.m.
Daily Political Wire 10-3-2010
George Wenschhof
"One Nation Working Together" rally's turn in D.C. - billed as the progressive's answer to the Glenn Beck "Tea Party" rally held earlier. a wide variety of speakers extolled on the evils of the Republican Party as they worked to energize the Democratic progressive voters. The Washington Post has more here.
One thing the dueling rallies have shown is the majority of Americans fall closer to the middle and not into either of these two groups. For Democrats, look to see a growth in the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), initially formed under the Clinton administration.
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Control of Congress remains too close to call - the NY Times has a good read today on the current status of the rapidly approaching mid term elections. While Republicans are certain to gain seats in both the House and Senate, it is still questionable if they will be able to gain enough to reach a majority.
Tomorrow, and every Monday prior to the election, we will publish a compilation of polls showing where the Congressional races stand.
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Gibbs to become DNC Chair? - Politico.com has a good read here. Speculation is he would leave his White House Press Secretary position to lead the DNC. This would give President Obama even more control as he heads into a reelection mode prior to the 2012 presidential election. Current DNC chair Tim Kaine is rumored to be then offered an administration position.
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Problems persist in new Health Care Plan - a centerpiece of the new health care plan was that those individuals with preexisting conditions could not be denied coverage. Unfortunately, premiums remain too high for those on fixed incomes or with low incomes and huge under enrollments exits in the programs across the United States. You can read more here.
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Saturday, October 2, 2010
Daily Political Wire 10-2-2010
George Wenschhof
President Obama to campaign for Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley - on Thursday October 7, the president will appear with O'Malley at a campaign event most likely at a location in Prince Georges County. You can read more here.
O'Malley is locked in a close contest with former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich. Obama continues to travel across the country, attending Democratic events with hopes he can energize the Democratic base to get out and vote in the mid term elections.
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Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman hold debate Number 2 in California Governor race this morning - this comes after revelations surfaced that Republican candidate Meg Whitman had employed an illegal immigrant as domestic help for an extended period of time. Despite spending 120 million of her own money, Whitman is trailing former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown. You can read more here.
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For a quick preview of the Sunday morning "Talking Heads", watch the video below.
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