Will Tuesday's Contests Provide Early Peek at 2010 Midterm Elections?

George Wenschhof

Pundits, media and the Democratic and Republican party national committees have already been busy spinning what the results will mean in several of the more watched races which culminate on Tuesday November 3. The Governor races in Virginia and New Jersey along with the district 23 New York race have captured national attention as Election Day nears.

The national political parties will try to say the results do or do not provide a window to the results of the 2010 mid term elections across the country depending upon the results. In reality, these three races do not provide a preview of what to expect in 2010. There is much to be played out over the next year which will impact the voters when they go to the polls.

The success or failure of health care reform, stabilization in Afghanistan, unemployment levels, government's success in grappling with the H1N1 Flu, continued withdrawal from Iraq, and economic growth along with reasonable plans to reduce the national deficit and debt are some of the current issues of importance to the voters. Domestic and international events will surely impact these issues and very possibly create some new issues over the next year.

So while these three races are important, they do not provide a glimpse into the outcome of the 2010 mid term elections. Reviewing the three contests over in Virginia; Democrat Creigh Deeds won a competitive primary when he ousted the early favorite; Terry McAuliffe. McAuliffe was a former Democratic National Committee chair and a co-chair of the Hillary Clinton for president campaign. While McAuliffe brought money and national attention to the race, he was considered an interloper and came across as a snake oil salesman. Deeds won the primary with a late boost from the endorsement of the Washington Post. Mr. Deeds has a little bit of a speech impediment and his public speaking is not a plus on his side. He also avoided connection with President Barack Obama through most of his campaign as he tried to appeal to moderates.

His Republican opponent Robert McDonnell now enjoys a double digit lead in the polls in spite of repeated negative attacks on McDonnell pertaining to a thesis written years ago while outline very conservative views toward women. You can read the latest Rasmussen poll here. President Obama was also brought in at the last moment to increase voter turnout in northern Virginia, but at this late date it is doubtful his appearance will have an impact. Obama won Virginia last year, but his insertion into this race at such a late date with a weak candidate will not help. History shows for the last thirty-six years the party party in power in the White House does not win the Virginia governor race. It is a safe bet history will repeat itself on Tuesday in Virginia with McDonnell becoming the next governor.

Over in New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is locked in a close battle with Republican challenger Chris Christie. The wild card here is third party candidate Chris Daggett who is pulling six to ten per cent of the voters in recent polls. Who he helps remains to be seen, but it appears to be Corzine. The Corzine campaign also took a different tack in regard to enlisting the aid of President Barack Obama. The president has made numerous appearances in the state, including two rallies on Sunday and even attended fundraisers for the governor. In addition, a key Obama campaign adviser was sent to directly become involved in the Corzine campaign and this had a positive effect. Look to see Corzine win reelection in a squeaker with the spoiler being Daggett resulting in a 50-50 split between Republican and Democrats in these two governor contests.

The New York District 23 race is providing much more salacious ink as die hard conservatives are already shouting victory in this contest what was a race between representatives of three political parties. The withdrawal or suspension of or from the race by Republican Dede Scozzafava on Saturday, has propelled Conservative Party Doug Hoffman into the lead. This withdrawal by Scozzafava continues the downward spiral by the Republican Party in New York over the last ten years. Today, the governor, majority of congressional seats and the state legislature is dominated by Democrats.

Republican National Committee chair Michael Steele moved quickly to try to stem the embarrassment stemming from the withdraw by Scozzafava by endorsing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The ultra conservatives are already spinning the Republican Party must turn further to the right in order to be competitive and victorious in the 2010 mid term elections. This statement come when only one in five of Americans across the country presently identify with the Republican Party.

The district 23 House seat in New York has been held by Republicans for some time and Democratic challenger Bill Owens has been competitive from the beginning. He is currently locked in a very close contest. Vice President Joe Biden will appear at a rally on Monday to offer his support to Owens. In this contest, a moderate Democrat is poised to win in a Republican stronghold. Regardless of whether Owens or Hoffman wins, the political fodder will be forthcoming throughout the media and the Internet. Look to see Owens win with a small margin of votes on Tuesday.

Every political contest is important to voters and these three races are no different. However, do not look at their outcomes to be the harbinger of the 2010 mid term elections.

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