How Will the Political Winds Blow in 2010?

George Wenschhof

The 2009 elections are now behind us and speculation begins as to what will be in store for Americans during the 2010 midterm election year. Republican leaders, such as they are, will try to make the governor wins in Virginia and New Jersey look as if they are the harbinger for 2010 with Republican gains sure to materialize. Democratic leaders will point to the New York District 23 congressional win which clearly showed the lack of leadership and direction in the Republican party.

In Virginia, Creigh Deeds was hardly a strong candidate from the beginning as he began by barely winning against carpetbagger Terry McAuliffe and all of his national money connections. Deeds went from shunning President Barack Obama from the beginning to asking for his help at the end. To his credit, Obama responded with appearances and televised ads even though at that point he realized it was too late. Governor Jon Corzine and his personal millions were never a big hit in New Jersey and while he embraced help from Obama early, voters were not enamored with Corzine.

The New York District 23 race had a little of everything as the Republican dropped out and endorsed the Democrat and the Conservative Party candidate lost after receiving the backing of the Republican Party and chair Michael Steele.

If these three races tell us anything, it is that political parties and their candidates should respect the voters. That is, candidates and the political parties should develop campaigns and platforms that are straightforward, honest and practical. Voters are more educated in the political arena than ever before with the Internet and 24/7 News providing on the spot information and analysis on every issue. The recruitment of strong candidates who are able to articulate values and positions on issues which ring true to voters and are not part of the hyperbole is what has to be foremost on the part of the political parties.

Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne in his column today entitled "On Election Day, a win for government" also points out a little reported fact of how voters in the state of Washington and Maine overwhelmingly defeated referendums to limit government spending. "Tabor", or the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, was defeated in Maine 60-40 and Washington state 57-43. This should send a strong signal to the dysfunctional Republicans that their simple message of less taxes and less government is not enough for the voters today.

On the national level, all 435 House seats are up for election next year. In addition, 37 Senate seats are up for election and 36 governorships are on ballots in states across the country next year.

In the House, Democrats currently occupy 258 and Republicans 177 of these seats. In the Senate, Democrats enjoy, with the help of two Independents, a filibuster proof majority of 60 seats to 40 seats for Republicans. After the loses in Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats hold a slim 26-24 majority of the Governors.

Republicans will have to achieve a gain of 41 seats in the House to reach a simple majority. Not impossible as Republicans with the help of Newt Gingrich and his "Contract With America" gained 54 seats in 1994. However, with talk show host Rush Limbaugh and Fox reporter Glen Beck providing narrow minded focus and direction for Republicans to follow, do not expect that large a number of wins for Republicans.

Wishful thinking from a practical standpoint, would be for Representatives to be elected every four years instead of the current two years with the seats also staggered as to their election. This would provide for more effective government as congressmen currently seem to always be in a election mode instead of concentrating on doing the business of the public.

In addition, staggering the elections would stop the nonsense of having the entire 435 member House up for election at the same time. The current procedure allows for a huge advantage for incumbents as they enjoy franking privileges allowing them to mail constituents periodically informing them of what they have accomplished during their term. Challengers need considerable money to gain equal name identification.

The early list of potential GOP 2012 presidential candidates is equally unimpressive with ex-Governor Sarah Palin ("I can see Russia from my house") among the contenders. She is joined by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Arizona Governor Mike Huckabee, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Hardly an impressive group to rally the troops to vote for Republican candidates in 2010.

The economy is sure to continue to be the number one issue for voters and unless there is noticeable improvement in jobless numbers across the country, you can expect voters to take out their frustration on the political party in the White House. In this case, Democrats will likely lose 25-30 seats in the House, but maintain a slim majority.

The Senate is likely to continue with a Democratic majority, but the shaky filibuster proof number of 60 currently enjoyed will be no more. The governor races are next to impossible to predict, but it is not unlikely they will tilt slightly to Republicans after elections next year.

All of this points out the importance of passing national health care reform now along with a meaningful climate control bill. Passing major bills during a mid term election year is difficult with so many seats in play. In addition, it is likely the votes needed to pass these important bills will be fewer after next year.

The 2010 midterm election promises to be interesting - stay tuned!

Next, I will take a look at the upcoming Frederick County and state of Maryland election.

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