9:59 PM ET Clinton, as expected, won Kentucky big. 97% reporting Clinton 65%, Obama 30%
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is reporting they raised 31.3 million in April.
Here is some exit polling from Oregon and Kentucky.
Clinton again says she will continue through June 3rd, where she predicts neither candidate will have the 2210 delegates needed to win the nomination - of course this is moving the chains again by including Michigan and Florida, instead of the current accepted number of 2025 delegates.
I did a statistical analysis adding the remaining superdelegates, pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, S. Dakota and Montana - then added Michigan and Florida delegates - Clinton would need to win 65% of the remaining total delegates to reach 2209 - it won't happen and remember when the credential committee of the DNC meets on May 31st to decide on how to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida, they will realize that Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan. Conversely, Obama would only need to win 38% of the remaining total delegates to reach 2209 after the chains were move to increase the yardage needed.
Senator Obama is scheduled to speak at 10:00 PM ET in Iowa.
10:15 PM ET Obama begins his speech with thoughts and thanks directed to Senator Kennedy. Juts recently, it has been reported that the brain tumor is inoperable.
Obama speaks of being in Iowa where this improbable journey began with a win in their caucus. His early theme is there is one-America. He does say he returns with a majority of the pledged delegates (pundits wondered if he would say this) He goes on to congratulate Senator Clinton for her victory in Kentucky. Speaks about how some may think the party is divided but he sees the democratic party as united against McCain and four more years of a Bush-like administration. He speaks about all the lobbyists running McCain's campaign and that it is time for a change.
A good speech on change needed in education, energy programs, foreign policy... An energetic crowd, with plenty of 'Yes We Can" chants. Change is coming to America. Thank you Iowa! Video of Speech.
10:37 PM ET Oregon Polls close at 11:00 PM ET and some results will available shortly.
11:00 PM ET NBC projects Obama as the winner in Oregon. 11% reporting, Obama 63%, Clinton 37%
11:24 PM Et 35% reporting, Obama 60%, Clinton 40% If this holds what I said earlier in a post will hold true and Clinton will only gain a dozen delegates on Obama as a result of the two primaries today. The Clinton campaign continues to press the popular vote advantage - they will gain about 100-125K today but they always add Michigan and Florida - which by now, everyone knows is hardly fair. As I have railed about for five months now, the Democratic party needs to revise their entire presidential nomination process. However, all the candidates knew the rules going in this year.
11:40 PM ET 48% reporting in Oregon, Obama 57%, Clinton 43%
Goodnight and let the spin begin.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Kentucky and Oregon Results - Live Blogging
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Kennedy Has Malignant Brain Tumor
It is being reported that Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy has been diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. This discovery is the result of testing done at Massachusetts General Hospital where Kennedy has been following the seizure he suffered last Saturday morning.
The New York Times has more here and here is the statement from Dr. Larry Ronan, Kennedy's doctor.
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1:37 PM
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Kentucky and Oregon Democrats Weigh In Today
In Kentucky (51 delegates), the polls close at 7:00 PM ET. On the west coast in Oregon (52 delegates), all the votes are by mail-in ballots and voters may drop off today up to 11:00 PM ET. Although the overwhelming majority of voters in Oregon mailed in their Ballots previously, expect the final results to come in slow.
A Oregon poll conducted by Public Policy Polling from 5-17 to 5-18 indicated that 74% of the poll respondents who had already voted favored Obama by 59%. Their overall poll results indicate Obama 56% and Clinton 38%. Although this looks encouraging for Obama, expect this margin to narrow as Ballots are totaled today.
Survey USA in a poll conducted from 5-16 to 5-18 shows a 2-1 advantage for Clinton 62% to Obama 31%. This margin has remained this way for weeks.
Today's total delegate count by RealClearPolitics.com is Obama 1913, Clinton 1721. Since yesterday, Obama has gained 13 delegates and Clinton 3 delegates.
It does not appear Clinton will gain more than a dozen delegates over Obama in today's contests even with a blow out in Kentucky. After today, only three democratic primaries remain: Puerto Rico (55 delegates) June 1, Montana (16 delegates) and S. Dakota (15 delegates) June 3.
We will do some live blogging on the results tonight. Stay Tuned.
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George Wenschhof
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10:37 AM
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Democratic Women Should Support the Nominee
Whitney M. Duck
This year's presidential race for the White House has had its ups and downs. More Democrats have not only gone to the polls but more Democrats have been added to the voting base. These results have been both surprising and stunning. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have brought forth to the Democratic Party new ideas and thoughts as they have battled to be who Democratic voters will choose as their nominee and elect to the White House in 2008. All of the struggling and testing has been good for the party and for the nation. Voters have had the opportunity to view both candidates and make their voices heard. Sometimes, a little bit of discourse is good but now the Democrats must come together and put the past behind.
There is sentiment out in the country among some democratic voters that the nominee must be either a Woman or an African American. Many die hard Obama and Clinton supporters have stated they will reject the other candidate if their candidate is not the democratic party nominee. This idea of a conspiracy if their candidate does not win does not sit well with me. But, the concept that a Woman must win at all costs is out there. The same thought is out there about why the candidate must be an African-American.
Believe it or not, quite a few people love good conspiracy stories. However, that is not my point. Both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton see themselves as agents of change. No longer will white males rule the race for the White House or Congress. Both Clinton and Obama have injected the idea of change in more then just policy but also with their gender and race. Americans are responding to both in different ways and slowly Americans are talking about gender and race with each other, one on one or in a group. Gradually, we are examining both of the Democrats running and acknowledging, for good or bad, that indeed race and gender do matter. But that is not the point I wish to make.
I am appealing to all Clinton supporters to give Obama another look - to look past his gender, and race and view him as a wonderful candidate for the White House. Many conversations have taken place, where I was surprised to learn that some Democratic Women (not all) will not settle for anyone but a woman candidate. This is surprising in that not all women running for office are the best choice for public office. It should not be "a women at all cost!" or "any women is better then none!" way of thinking. The best person should be elected no matter their gender, race, religion, or sexual preference. Once we step into the, "the only reason I am voting for him or her is their race, religion, gender, or sexual preference, we begin to defeat better candidates at the cost of advancing our own bullheadedness.
Even here in Frederick Maryland, a woman elected official has been known to say "Any women, would be better then any man". Just electing a person based on a quality that is rooted in birth and origin is not enough in these trying times. It fact, it shows a bit of ignorance and blind faith toward the idea of changing government. It is the policies and theories that should be looked at and evaluated and not just a blind vote for the candidate because of their gender.
Early on, I was a Clinton gal. In many ways I still am but I see the writing on the wall. First and foremost I am a Democrat and I want to see a Democrat in the White House! Senator Obama will do the Democratic Party justice not because he is an African American but because he sees the troubles and issues facing America in the future. I judge him not on his race or gender but on how he will govern and how he will change direction for this country. I see a true Democrat and a true valuable choice in Obama and I see these as a part of who he is – knowledgeable, young, male, bi-racial, married, optimist - a great candidate for the office of President of the United States.
Senator Clinton, I believe, would also be a wonderful choice but by facing the truth, she is not winning and cannot win. It is not her gender that is keeping her away from the White House, but her own personality and policies. I admire her hard work and the "stick-to-it-ness" of her campaign, but the time has come for her to exit.
I hope in November, my fellow sister Democrats will help elect the person who will make positive changes for our country and cast their vote for Obama. I hope with all hope that Clinton women supporters will not do the famous "backlash" vote and vote Republican. That is not a smart or wise move. Come January 2009, we can all lick our wounds and come together to make changes. Not all women make a prefect choice. Women too can be short sighted and make wrong decisions and votes. We should remember that and not let gender blind us.
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