Obama "Change We Need" Rally in Manassas, Va.

George Wenschhof

Tomorrow on Monday, November 3rd, Barack Obama will be in Manassas for his final Virginia rally before Election Day. If you live within driving distance, please plan to attend. This is a great opportunity to see and hear from him the day before the election.

Here are the details that were sent to me:

Change We Need Rally with Barack Obama

Prince William County Fairgrounds
10624 Dumfries Road
Manassas, VA 20112

Monday, November 3rd
Doors Open: 5:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 9:00 p.m.

This event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required; however, an RSVP is strongly encouraged. You can RSVP by clicking here.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.

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Electoral Vote Update 11-2-2008

George Wenschhof

Keep an eye on four states currently indicated below as leaning Democratic. They will all have to be won by McCain in order for him to have a chance to win the election. They are Florida(27), North Carolina(15), Virginia(13) and Ohio(20).

This would add 75 electoral votes to the 185 indicated below that McCain has now and his total would then be 260. This is still ten electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win. This would then require McCain to win both Colorado(9) and Nevada(5) which are also leaning Democratic. His total would then be 274 to 264 for Obama.

Although the McCain campaign continues to target Pennsylvania(21), I do not believe they will win this state.

On the other hand, if Obama wins North Carolina or Virginia where the polls will be closed earlier on the east coast, I believe Obama will win by a large margin with his total electoral vote close to the 353 indicated in the following data.

It appears there are simply too many states McCain needs to win where he is currently trailing in the polls in order for him to win the election.

However, I believe the election could very well be closer than the current data suggests with Indiana(11), Colorado(9) and Nevada(5) being pivotal to the final outcome.

On a personal note, this election is too critical for the future of our country and should not be close.

There is simply no question that Senator Barack Obama will make the better President. He will bring wise and measured judgement to the White House which has been absent of it for eight long years with the Bush administration.

No matter what state you live in, no matter if it is raining or the lines are long, make sure you vote for Obama on Tuesday. It is time for a change!

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I began this weekly analysis of the electoral vote using data from electoral-vote.com, eight weeks ago when the numbers showed a virtual tie. Over this time period, we have had the three presidential debates, the only vice-president debate, Katie Couric interviews with Governor Palin, the melt down on Wall Street, the resulting Bailout bill, William Ayers, Joe the Plumber and more desperate negative attacks on Obama by the McCain campaign.

Voter polls by Gallup.com indicated all three Presidential debates were won by Obama and pundits agreed Biden beat Palin in the only vice-president debate. Meanwhile, the worldwide economic meltdown continues to benefit the Obama campaign.

After six straight weeks of electoral vote gains for Obama, McCain has picked up 28 electoral votes in the last week. However, McCain continues to trail by almost a 2-1 count.

Obama now has 353 to McCain with 185. Indiana(11) and Missouri(11) went from weak Democrat to weak Republican. Montana(3) and North Dakota(3) which were tied last week, went to weak Republican. Note all four of these states are tradition strong "Red" states that although leaning Republican, remain too close to call.

The too close to call states which are indicated with an * below now number eight. However, the states are different from last week. Interestingly, the new state added this week is McCain's home state of Arizona which is now classified as "weak" Republican.

Note, that with only two days to go to the election, in the eight "too close to call" states, McCain is now leading in six.

Four years ago on this date, electoral-vote.com had the electoral vote at 262 for John Kerry and 261 for George W. Bush with New Jersey(15) Tied. George W. Bush would go on to win with 286 electoral votes to 252 for John Kerry.

Presently, Ralph Nader is polling around 2% and Bob Barr about 1%. Some polling data show the undecideds are now around 3%. There always remains the possibility of some unpredictable event transpiring that would affect the race, such as some international incident but the days are dwindling for this to have an impact.

At this point, twenty-one states remain in play, largely as a result of the Obama campaign strategy of competing in all the states.

Here is the view of the swing states over the preceding eight weeks:

Total Electoral Vote (270 needed to win)
9-14-2008 McCain 270, Obama 268
9-21-2008 McCain 265, Obama 273
9-28-2008 McCain 252, Obama 286
10-5-2008 McCain 185, Obama 338, Tie 15
10-12-2008 McCain 184, Obama 343, Tie 11
10-19-2008 McCain 171, Obama 364,Tie3
10-26-2008 McCain 157, Obama 375, Tie 6

11-2-2008 McCain 185, Obama 353

Battleground States - (Electoral Votes), 9-14,9-21,9-28,10-5, 10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Democratic
Washington - (11) D,D,D,D,D,D,D,D
Colorado - (9) D-D-D*,D*D*,D,D,D
Minnesota - (10) D-D-D*D,D,D,D,D
Michigan - (17) D-D-D,D,D,D,D,D
Pennsylvania - (21), D-D-D,D,D,D,D,D

Republican
Nevada - (5), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*,D
New Mexico - (5), R-D-D,D,D,D,D,D
Indiana - (11), R-R-R*,R*,R*,R*,D,R*
Ohio - (20), R-R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D,D
Virginia - (13), R-R-D*,D*,D,D,D,D

New Battleground States 9-21, 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Democratic
Wisconsin - (10), D-D,D,D,D,D,D
New Hampshire - (4), D-D*,D,D,D,D,D
Maine - (4), D-D,D,D,D,D,D

Republican
West Virginia - (5), R-R,R,D,R*,R,R
Florida - (27), R-R*,D*,D*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground States 9-28, 10-5,10-12, 10-19, 10-26, 11-2

Republican
Missouri - (11) R*,R*,Tie*,D*,D*R*
North Carolina - (15) R*,Tie*,R*,D*,D*,D*

New Battleground State 10-19,10-26, 11-2

North Dakota - (3) Tie*,Tie*,R*

New Battleground State 10-26, 11-2

Montana - Tie*,R*
Georgia - R*,R*

New Battleground State 11-2-2008

Arizona - R*

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Dem Campaign Chatter 11-1-2008

George Wenschhof

Today, Obama is in Evansville, Indiana, Pueblo, Colorado and Springfield, Missouri - all three are now considered swing states. The Democratic Senators from those three states; Evan Bayh, Ken Salazar, and Barbara McCaskill have been a big help to the Obama campaign.

Biden is also in Evansville, Indiana, then off to Marion and Bowling Green, Ohio. Michelle Obama will be in Pueblo, Colorado and Springfield, Missouri.

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Yesterday, Obama speaks with Wolf Blitzer on CNN - He discusses the nation's priorities. The need to stabilize the economy, reach energy independence, health care, and reforming the education system. CNN.com has more here.

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Obama 49.9%, McCain 43.6% - This is the average of 11 polls taken from 10-25 to 10-31-2008. RealClearPolitics.com has more here. While some pundits discuss if the undecideds will go to McCain or Obama in a larger number, I feel many will simply choose an alternative by voting for Nader or Barr. I look for these two candidates to receive as much as 5% combined of the vote.

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Keep an eye on Bachmann(R) - Tinklenburg(D) congressional race in Minnesota - the incumbent, Bachmann stepped in it on MSNBC "Hardball" when she said Obama and his wife were anti-American. Since then, what Bachmann thought was an easy reelection, has turned into a real battle. Democrats across the country have sent contributions to Tinklenburg and the DCCC contributed 1 million. Now conservatives groups have contributed $850,000 to Bachmann in the last 11 days. TheHill.com has more here.

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"Four More Days" is a good quick read by Joan Walsh of Salon.com - She speaks of the nervousness many Democrats have as the election nears. Remember the Osama bin laden tape released 4 days prior to the 2004 election? Many speculated it helped Bush and hurt Kerry. You can read her column here.

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More dirty tricks expected in remaining days - the latest is a AP report that a Aunt of Barack Obama who is living in public housing in Boston, may be in the country illegally. His aunt, Zeituni Onyango is from Kenya and is related from his late Father's side of the family. Immigration is a flash point issue for discussion for voters and this issue has not been discussed in any great depth in this election. You can read more here.

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Sunday Morning "Talking Heads" 11-2-2008

George Wenschhof

This is the last Sunday morning prior to Election Day on Tuesday, November 4th. Rick Davis, the campaign manger for McCain and David Axelrod. the chief strategist for the Obama campaign will appear on several of the shows.

Expect continued speculation as to who will be the next President. Here on Air-it-Out with George, we will publish on Sunday, November 2nd, our last electoral vote update prior to the election. So check back to see those numbers and perhaps a prediction for Tuesday.

Secondary discussion on Sunday morning will likely center on Democratic pick ups in the Senate and the House. Projected Democratic gains in the Senate have ranged from 6 to 9 and gains in the House have ranged from 20 to 40.

Perhaps they will talk about former chief of staff for President Ronald Reagan, Ken Duberstein endorsing Barack Obama.

Here is the lineup:

NBC "Meet The Press" - Tom Brokaw will interview Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) who lost a close election in 2004 when Ohio was a pivotal state. Also former Senator Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) who ran for the Republican Presidential nomination earlier this year.

The roundtable discussion will include David Gregory, Chuck Todd, Michele Norris and David Broder. Chuck Todd, who is very good, will give his update on the electoral vote.

CBS "Face The Nation" - Bob Schieffer will interview David Axelrod, chief strategist for the Obama campaign and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Also the chairs of the Republican and Democratic Senate Campaign Committees: Senators Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and John Ensign (R-Nev.). Let's see what they say about the prospects of the Democrats reaching a filibuster proof 60. Also expect some discussion on the Elizabeth Dole race in North Carolina who is behind in the polls to democrat Kay Hagen, 53% to 44%.

ABC "This Week" - George Stephanopoulos has Rick Davis the McCain campaign manager and David Axelrod, the chief strategist for the Obama campaign.

The roundtable discussion will have George Will, Donna Brazile, Mark Halperin, and Matthew Dowd.

Fox News Sunday - Chris Wallace has David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager. Unlike Rick Davis, Plouffe has not catered to the press, instead preferring to just do his job. Rick Davis will also appear. Karl Rove will give his take on the electoral map.

CNN "Late Edition" - Wolf Blitzer has a full lineup. From battleground state Pennsylvania, he has Senators Bob Casey (D) and Arlen Specter (R). He also has four Governors: Deval Patrick (D-Mass.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Sanford (R-SC), and Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.).

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