George Wenschhof
For Democrats, the goal in 2010 is to retain the two current delegate positions in district 3-A, win what will be an open delegate seat in district 3-B and to also capture the prized state senate seat. The two Democratic incumbent delegates in district 3-A are Galen Clagett and Sue Hecht.
In district 3-B, delegate Rick Weldon (Unaffiliated) has announced he will not run for reelection and the state senate seat is currently occupied by Republican Alex Mooney.
The third district now has a narrow Democratic voter registration advantage, but odds for Democratic pick-ups are not high due to two major factors. The first is Unaffiliated voters as they are known in Frederick County are now trending nationwide toward Republicans after trending for Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.
For Democrats, the goal in 2010 is to retain the two current delegate positions in district 3-A, win what will be an open delegate seat in district 3-B and to also capture the prized state senate seat. The two Democratic incumbent delegates in district 3-A are Galen Clagett and Sue Hecht.
In district 3-B, delegate Rick Weldon (Unaffiliated) has announced he will not run for reelection and the state senate seat is currently occupied by Republican Alex Mooney.
The third district now has a narrow Democratic voter registration advantage, but odds for Democratic pick-ups are not high due to two major factors. The first is Unaffiliated voters as they are known in Frederick County are now trending nationwide toward Republicans after trending for Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.
There are currently 79,597 registered voters in district 3. Democrats lead in registration with 33,659 with Republicans at 29,898 and Unaffiliated/Others at 16,040. Unaffiliated registration is 14,850. Over in district 3-B, where there will be an open seat, the voter registration barely favors Republicans who have 12,853. Democrats are close behind at 11,745 with Unaffiliated/others at approximately 6,000.
The second factor is the economy is expected to continue modest growth and unemployment is expected to remain high across the country through 2010. Regardless of what political party may have been responsible for the economic downturn Americans are facing today, historically voters will take out their frustration with voting against candidates of the political party in the White House. In addition, necessary cuts made made the O'Malley administration in services offered by the state due to budget shortfalls will have a drag on Democratic candidates.
This will make retaining two delegate seats and picking up a delegate and senate seat a daunting task for Democrats.
The third district senate seat is currently garnering the most attention among Democratic insiders as incumbent Alex Mooney is the senator they universally love to hate. Mostly ineffective during his time in office, he has taken the ultra conservative mantel for Republicans. He has also shown the ability to run a successful campaign and fund raise at will, receiving contributions from conservatives all across the country.
Sources have told me of an recent early meeting among known possible contenders for the Democratic nomination for state senate in district 3. Among those present was President of the Board of County Commissioners Jan Gardner who has already announced she will not run again for county commissioner. Heavily rumored to be running for this seat, she was noncommittal in a recent conversation with me. Also present were Don DeArmon, Marcia Hall, Ron Young and Candy Greenway. I did not hear the name of Lisa Baugher who has already announced she was running, but has yet to file her candidacy for the seat.
Speculation was they were discussing who might run and the advantages of a uncontested Democratic primary. The word I received was no decision was made by anyone in the room. Also allegedly discussed was an early poll paid for by someone in the state Democratic party apparatus that indicated Jan Gardner had a ten point lead over Alex Mooney. Even if this is true, before anyone should get giddy, a poll taken over a year out from election is essentially worthless in regard to predicting the outcome in November 2010.
Looking at the names discussed, Don DeArmon is a formidable candidate who would be competitive in a contest with Mooney. Mr. DeArmon was the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 6th district in 2000 and 2002. He ran competitive campaigns in a district gerrymandered to favor Republicans. He is extremely knowledgeable of the issues, understands politics and would be an effective state senator.
Jan Gardner will face having to defend three terms of decisions on issues as a county commissioner, including one made recently to favor building a costly incinerator to handle waste disposal, by a very tough campaigner; Alex Mooney. One only has to look back at the 2002 race when Sue Hecht was talked out of running for reelection as delegate to challenge Alex Mooney. She became the anointed one and did not face a primary challenge. While she raised over $750,000, Mooney raised even more, ran a better campaign and beat Hecht by 10 points in what would be the highest combined amount spent by candidates for a Maryland state senate seat.
Candy Greenway, who I endorsed after I dropped out of the race four years ago, came within several thousand votes in a race much closer than anyone would have thought in 2006. Thought by many to be a political lightweight, she was given the nickname; "Clueless Candy" when after the election, she appeared on the former locally televised political talk show "Pressing Issues". It became painfully clear to those viewers who gave her the nickname she was not knowledgeable of the issues discussed on the show.
Former City of Frederick Mayor Ron Young would always be competitive in any race he would enter as he is a seasoned campaigner, a knowledgeable politician and one who has experience in working with the state. However, his lost in the City of Frederick mayoral race in 2005 and the loss of Jason Judd who he supported this year for Mayor are not good indicators of future success against Republican Alex Mooney. The city has a heavy Democratic voter advantage and unfortunately, both times a Republican was elected mayor. The City of Frederick makes up the majority of district 3-A and has the highest percentage of Democratic voters in district 3.
Marcia Hall decided, due to personal reasons, not to run for mayor in the recent election. She served two terms as alderwoman that were best described as staying out of the fray as disagreements popped up or controversial issues were discussed. She would be competitive if she choose to enter the race, but the move to state senate from city alderman is a giant leap.
Lisa Baugher announced back on April 7, 2009 she would be running as a Democrat against Alex Mooney for state senate. She became known when she battled Duke Energy when they sought a permit in Point of Rocks, Maryland years ago. Ms. Baugher would then in 2002 run for delegate in district 3-B, losing to Rick Weldon. She would go to work for him beginning in 2004 as his legislative affairs officer. While she has shown her ability to take on tough battles, this race may not be one for her to undertake. It will be interesting to see if she is recruited by Commissioner Kai Hagen (D) to run for county commissioner on his "managed growth" slate.
It will not be easy to beat Alex Mooney for the state senate seat in district 3, but fair, effective and reasonable representation is needed for the voters in this district.
For starters, the strategy should not be to avoid a contested Democratic primary and in addition, the nominee should be extremely cautious of allowing the state Democratic party or Senate President Mike Miller's Senatorial committee too much influence in the campaign.
Too much direction was given to the Hecht campaign in 2002, much of it directed at negative advertisement and control of direct mail and media buys at the end. The result being multiple negative brochures being received the same day by Democratic voters in precincts where the Democrats were already going to vote in support of Hecht. It was an incredible waste of campaign funds and the negative attacks against Alex Mooney turned off the very voters who had been supportive of Sue Hecht.
An uncontested primary would not aid the Democrats as the primary is not until September 14 with a candidate filing deadline of July 6. Although a contested Democratic primary will add to the cost of the campaign, it will showcase the differences between the Democratic candidates and Republican state senator Alex Mooney. This would be money well spent as the general election is on November 2, only seven weeks following the primary.
Over in the delegate races, Republican Michael Hough has announced he is running for delegate in district 3-B. An Alex Mooney clone, he needs to be stopped from winning this election. He already has shown the ability to fund raise, no doubt helped in part by fellow Republicans Mooney and Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Md. 6th District) who have both endorsed him. Frederick County Commissioner Charles Jenkins announced early he would also run for the seat, but it is becoming increasingly likely he will run for reelection.
Perhaps Democrat Lisa Baugher will reconsider her run for state senate or perhaps Burkittsville resident Paul Gilligan, who has run two previous times, will try again to win this seat. He is very knowledgeable and a concerned environmentalist and land preservationist who would make a good delegate in this district.
Another name who has been mentioned by some Democrats is Andrew Duck who resides in Brunswick and who would be a formidable candidate for delegate in district 3-B. While he has been talked to by several, including myself as long as a year ago in regard to this race, he is intent on running for a third time for Congress in the 6th district.
The two Democratic delegates; Galen Clagett and Sue Hecht from District 3-A should be reelected, however they are sure to face stiff opposition. An interesting aside is there is no secret there is no huge amount of affection between these two Democratic delegates.
In 2006, Sue Hecht won back her delegate seat she had held from 1994-2002 when she decided to take on Alex Mooney in that ill fated campaign. Galen won a close race when he had to wait until after absentee ballots were counted to hang on to retain his seat he had won first in 2002. Republican incumbent Pat Hogan came in third by several hundred votes as I recall.
Sue Hecht won that race, in part, by appealing to women voters starting with a fundraising drive on her campaign website entitled "$100 from 100 women". Galen Clagett, long a politician now sits on the powerful appropriations committee in Annapolis. Both will be strong candidates in district 3-A. Clagett informed me recently he is preparing legislation that will protect municipalities from cuts from the county "tax equity" program. This will no doubt be warmly received as the county this year attempted to reduce the amount of payments due to municipalities due to double taxation and duplication of services.
No word is on the street of possible Democratic challengers, but I would be surprised if one or more do not surface. One might be Caroline Eader who has opposed the Waste-to Energy Incinerator in the county and may feel this would be a good position for her to run for or maybe she will decide to run for county commissioner.
Expect the Republicans to put forth strong candidates in the 3-A race as they will realize the national trend will aid them even in a district heavily favoring Democrats.
It is still early, but the Maryland 3rd district races promise to be a must watch!
Stay Tuned....
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The second factor is the economy is expected to continue modest growth and unemployment is expected to remain high across the country through 2010. Regardless of what political party may have been responsible for the economic downturn Americans are facing today, historically voters will take out their frustration with voting against candidates of the political party in the White House. In addition, necessary cuts made made the O'Malley administration in services offered by the state due to budget shortfalls will have a drag on Democratic candidates.
This will make retaining two delegate seats and picking up a delegate and senate seat a daunting task for Democrats.
The third district senate seat is currently garnering the most attention among Democratic insiders as incumbent Alex Mooney is the senator they universally love to hate. Mostly ineffective during his time in office, he has taken the ultra conservative mantel for Republicans. He has also shown the ability to run a successful campaign and fund raise at will, receiving contributions from conservatives all across the country.
Sources have told me of an recent early meeting among known possible contenders for the Democratic nomination for state senate in district 3. Among those present was President of the Board of County Commissioners Jan Gardner who has already announced she will not run again for county commissioner. Heavily rumored to be running for this seat, she was noncommittal in a recent conversation with me. Also present were Don DeArmon, Marcia Hall, Ron Young and Candy Greenway. I did not hear the name of Lisa Baugher who has already announced she was running, but has yet to file her candidacy for the seat.
Speculation was they were discussing who might run and the advantages of a uncontested Democratic primary. The word I received was no decision was made by anyone in the room. Also allegedly discussed was an early poll paid for by someone in the state Democratic party apparatus that indicated Jan Gardner had a ten point lead over Alex Mooney. Even if this is true, before anyone should get giddy, a poll taken over a year out from election is essentially worthless in regard to predicting the outcome in November 2010.
Looking at the names discussed, Don DeArmon is a formidable candidate who would be competitive in a contest with Mooney. Mr. DeArmon was the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 6th district in 2000 and 2002. He ran competitive campaigns in a district gerrymandered to favor Republicans. He is extremely knowledgeable of the issues, understands politics and would be an effective state senator.
Jan Gardner will face having to defend three terms of decisions on issues as a county commissioner, including one made recently to favor building a costly incinerator to handle waste disposal, by a very tough campaigner; Alex Mooney. One only has to look back at the 2002 race when Sue Hecht was talked out of running for reelection as delegate to challenge Alex Mooney. She became the anointed one and did not face a primary challenge. While she raised over $750,000, Mooney raised even more, ran a better campaign and beat Hecht by 10 points in what would be the highest combined amount spent by candidates for a Maryland state senate seat.
Candy Greenway, who I endorsed after I dropped out of the race four years ago, came within several thousand votes in a race much closer than anyone would have thought in 2006. Thought by many to be a political lightweight, she was given the nickname; "Clueless Candy" when after the election, she appeared on the former locally televised political talk show "Pressing Issues". It became painfully clear to those viewers who gave her the nickname she was not knowledgeable of the issues discussed on the show.
Former City of Frederick Mayor Ron Young would always be competitive in any race he would enter as he is a seasoned campaigner, a knowledgeable politician and one who has experience in working with the state. However, his lost in the City of Frederick mayoral race in 2005 and the loss of Jason Judd who he supported this year for Mayor are not good indicators of future success against Republican Alex Mooney. The city has a heavy Democratic voter advantage and unfortunately, both times a Republican was elected mayor. The City of Frederick makes up the majority of district 3-A and has the highest percentage of Democratic voters in district 3.
Marcia Hall decided, due to personal reasons, not to run for mayor in the recent election. She served two terms as alderwoman that were best described as staying out of the fray as disagreements popped up or controversial issues were discussed. She would be competitive if she choose to enter the race, but the move to state senate from city alderman is a giant leap.
Lisa Baugher announced back on April 7, 2009 she would be running as a Democrat against Alex Mooney for state senate. She became known when she battled Duke Energy when they sought a permit in Point of Rocks, Maryland years ago. Ms. Baugher would then in 2002 run for delegate in district 3-B, losing to Rick Weldon. She would go to work for him beginning in 2004 as his legislative affairs officer. While she has shown her ability to take on tough battles, this race may not be one for her to undertake. It will be interesting to see if she is recruited by Commissioner Kai Hagen (D) to run for county commissioner on his "managed growth" slate.
It will not be easy to beat Alex Mooney for the state senate seat in district 3, but fair, effective and reasonable representation is needed for the voters in this district.
For starters, the strategy should not be to avoid a contested Democratic primary and in addition, the nominee should be extremely cautious of allowing the state Democratic party or Senate President Mike Miller's Senatorial committee too much influence in the campaign.
Too much direction was given to the Hecht campaign in 2002, much of it directed at negative advertisement and control of direct mail and media buys at the end. The result being multiple negative brochures being received the same day by Democratic voters in precincts where the Democrats were already going to vote in support of Hecht. It was an incredible waste of campaign funds and the negative attacks against Alex Mooney turned off the very voters who had been supportive of Sue Hecht.
An uncontested primary would not aid the Democrats as the primary is not until September 14 with a candidate filing deadline of July 6. Although a contested Democratic primary will add to the cost of the campaign, it will showcase the differences between the Democratic candidates and Republican state senator Alex Mooney. This would be money well spent as the general election is on November 2, only seven weeks following the primary.
Over in the delegate races, Republican Michael Hough has announced he is running for delegate in district 3-B. An Alex Mooney clone, he needs to be stopped from winning this election. He already has shown the ability to fund raise, no doubt helped in part by fellow Republicans Mooney and Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Md. 6th District) who have both endorsed him. Frederick County Commissioner Charles Jenkins announced early he would also run for the seat, but it is becoming increasingly likely he will run for reelection.
Perhaps Democrat Lisa Baugher will reconsider her run for state senate or perhaps Burkittsville resident Paul Gilligan, who has run two previous times, will try again to win this seat. He is very knowledgeable and a concerned environmentalist and land preservationist who would make a good delegate in this district.
Another name who has been mentioned by some Democrats is Andrew Duck who resides in Brunswick and who would be a formidable candidate for delegate in district 3-B. While he has been talked to by several, including myself as long as a year ago in regard to this race, he is intent on running for a third time for Congress in the 6th district.
The two Democratic delegates; Galen Clagett and Sue Hecht from District 3-A should be reelected, however they are sure to face stiff opposition. An interesting aside is there is no secret there is no huge amount of affection between these two Democratic delegates.
In 2006, Sue Hecht won back her delegate seat she had held from 1994-2002 when she decided to take on Alex Mooney in that ill fated campaign. Galen won a close race when he had to wait until after absentee ballots were counted to hang on to retain his seat he had won first in 2002. Republican incumbent Pat Hogan came in third by several hundred votes as I recall.
Sue Hecht won that race, in part, by appealing to women voters starting with a fundraising drive on her campaign website entitled "$100 from 100 women". Galen Clagett, long a politician now sits on the powerful appropriations committee in Annapolis. Both will be strong candidates in district 3-A. Clagett informed me recently he is preparing legislation that will protect municipalities from cuts from the county "tax equity" program. This will no doubt be warmly received as the county this year attempted to reduce the amount of payments due to municipalities due to double taxation and duplication of services.
No word is on the street of possible Democratic challengers, but I would be surprised if one or more do not surface. One might be Caroline Eader who has opposed the Waste-to Energy Incinerator in the county and may feel this would be a good position for her to run for or maybe she will decide to run for county commissioner.
Expect the Republicans to put forth strong candidates in the 3-A race as they will realize the national trend will aid them even in a district heavily favoring Democrats.
It is still early, but the Maryland 3rd district races promise to be a must watch!
Stay Tuned....
--------------------
To receive "Daily updates" from Air-it-Out with George Wenschhof, click on "Subscribe to this feed" below.
