Concerned for our Future

Connie Castanera

I am not only concerned for the future of our country, but for our communities in Frederick County, Maryland. In general, I prefer to focus on the good things that are happening in Frederick County, the State of Maryland, and the country. It's my nature to look for the good and accentuate the positives in people and situations.

In spite of my best efforts to suppress and ignore them, the ugly negatives sometime rear their heads. Once they come into focus, they can be pretty burdensome to think about and acknowledge. I have listed below a short list of issues that I believe we can all do something about, but do not or will not. These are some of the issues that concern me the most. I invite you to see if you agree with me or not. I would be interested in hearing from those who do and do not agree. Perhaps you would like to add your own concerns to the list.

Globally
Our brave young people seriously injured and dying in Iraq for a war that many find questionable; police brutality, corruption and racial/ethnic profiling concerns; Chinese manufactured toys contaminated with lead; the looming threat of terrorism; weapons of mass destruction; hunger; homelessness, violence, and the lack of respect for human life.

Nationally
Affecting our young people:
The need for police presence in our schools; our youth driving while under the influence, texting or talking on their cell phones; growing apathetic attitudes of young people in their teens and 20s.
Affecting many of our communities:
Racial tensions; illegal immigration eliciting a growing and festering attitude involving prejudice and discrimination, within a segment of our communities; some of our elected officials failing to keep their campaign promises.

Locally
Growing concerns about traffic delays along 70 and 270 during rush hour; the presence and influence of gangs in our communities, schools, and its effect on the lives of our young people; the many "children left behind" due to failing school systems; the many lives lost on our highways due to irresponsible drivers.

In 2008, let's live our lives as if we were all equally important, because we are.

And...., They're Off and Running!!!!

George Wenschhof

I know live coverage is on MSNBC, and probably all TV News will have updates. I noticed http://www.politico.com/ will have a tally sheet online.
Who will win, place and show for the Democrats and the Republicans? The Polls say Obama, Clinton and then Edwards.

If the Biden and Richardson campaigns did cut a deal with the Obama campaign to have their supporters switch to Obama if they failed the 15% threshold, this along with Kucinich's support should put Obama in first. Richardson may surprise with a third or strong fourth place finish if his knowledgeable, steady approach while staying away from the fray of the top tier candidates appeals to the Iowa voter.

What are your predictions?

The follow up question is who will drop out after Iowa?

I predict both Biden and Dodd unless either one manages to finish a strong fourth. They are life long Democrats in office and will realize it's time to get out. Is Gravel even still in this race? Kucinich, although he has honorable and strong positions on the issues should also realize he is not receiving enough support.

What are your thoughts?

I believe there is a Debate scheduled for Saturday night prior to the New Hampshire primary. Who will be attending that Debate?

8:15 PM est - early reports are showing some precincts reporting three times the number of voters from 4 years ago -Who are they supporting is the question at this point. But 3xs the number of voters from 4 years ago is significant.

8:40 PM EST - only 4% precincts edwards-37%, Clinton-32%, obama-29% richardson-3%

8:52 PM - 24% precincts reporting - Edwards -34%, Obama-32%, Clinton-32%

NBC has just called the Republican Winner - Huckabee if this holds true - where does this leave Romney?

9:00 PM 39% Precincts reporting - Obama-33% Edwards -32%, Clinton-32%

9:14 PM 56% Precincts reporting Obama-35%, Edwards-32%, Clinton-31%

9:26 PM NBC calls Obama Winner with 71% precincts reporting Obama-35%, Edwards-31% Clinton-31%

9:30 PM 75% precincts reporting - Obama-36%, Edwards-31%, Clinton-31%

Looks like Romney and his millions did not work in Iowa with the Republican voters-How will he fare in New Hampshire?

9:43 PM 87% Precincts reporting - Obama -37% Edwards -30%, Clinton-30%
This is a huge win for Obama and shows the crediblity of his campaign. The battle now is who claims second place. Clinton has definitely been damaged. Edwards has kept his campaign alive. Obama and Edwards are both change candidates and Clinton is more status quo and these results tells us people want a change.

I have to add Richardson to the Democratic candidates who should drop out after Iowa. Although he received 2% and Biden 1% and they are both good men, they have to see the writing on the wall. They can be of help to the eventual nominee.

10:00 PM - 92% Precinct reporting - Obama - 37%, Edwards - 30%, Clinton - 30%
Supposedly, Clinton is about to make a statement. She needs to make a good one for her veil of inevitabilty has disappeared.

10:18 PM - Elizabeth Edwards just introduced her husband and pointed out they were outspent 6-1 in Iowa and still came in second. John Edwards is speaking strong of the need for change and is talking about those without health care and those who are without. The future primaries will be about who the voters feel is best to lead our country in this change. An excellent speech about the time and need for a change.

With 97% precincts reporting - Obama - 38%, Edwards-30%, Clinton -29%
Still waiting to see what clinton has to say.....

Hillary Clinton is now speaking with husband Bill by her side and also former secretary of state Madeline Albright standing with her. talking about her being the candidate being able to go the distance and being able to be president on day one- still using the experience factor. Now talking about always wanting to run a national campaign - says she is ready for the rest of the campaign. She had better be for she just came in third. The latest slogan is Americans need a President who is their champion and she wants to be their champion. No words from husband Bill and no smiles either.

On the Republican side with 78% precincts reporting - Huckabee-34%, Romney-25%, McCain and Thompson-13%, Paul -10%. Giuliani who skipped campaigning in Iowa received 4%. Look for Romney in spite of his own personal wealth to be damaged heavily here. It will now be McCain and Huckabee, neither of whom have any significant campaign chests or organizations against Giuliani.

Hillary Clinton is the biggest loser tonight. Her frequent campaign statements about her being used to fighting the Republicans is not what people want to hear, Voters want a leader who is able to bring Americans together and is able to chart a future full of promise. Change is what the voters want after 7 years of the Bush administration and Clinton does not represent change but rather the status quo.

11:05 PM - Senator Obama is now speaking flanked by his wife and children. Thank you Iowa. They said this day would never come and this country was too divided but today Iowans have done what the cynics said could not be done. Iowans have done what the people in New hampshire can do in five days. We are one people and one nation and the time for change has come. Time has come to end the bitterness in washington and the divisiveness of the blue and red states. Choosing hope over fear-change is coming to America. Time has come for a President to be honest with Americans and he asked for New Hampshire for their support. He will be a President who will restore our moral standing around the world. He thanked all his workers and supporters - and the love of his life his wife Michelle. Time to lift this country up and not tear it down. People are ready to believe again! A powerful speech.

Clinton and Edwards must do well in the New Hampshire primary in just five days. If Obama follows up with a win in New Hampshire his campaign will be well positioned for S. Carolina and then February 5th, the new Super Tuesday when over 20 states hold their primaries.

11:19 PM Biden and Dodd withdraw as I predicted. Gravel, Richardson and Kucinich should follow their lead.

The other big story tonight was twice as many Democrats voted than Republicans in Iowa. 57% of voters under 30 voted for Obama and 35% of women voted for Obama and only 30% of women voted for Clinton-another bad sign for Clinton.

Polls Irrelevant in Iowa - Today's Vote is What Counts

George Wenschhof

In Iowa, the caucus method of voting is unique and it is extremely difficult for a Poll to show support of a candidate. This is due to several factors including the ability of a voter to change his/her vote prior to recording the final tally.

The Iowa caucus, which resembles more of a town meeting, occurs in schools, libraries, community centers, and even private homes. Reportedly, the caucus begins at 7 pm and anyone who is not there on time is not allowed to participate. A previous designated (by the state) House Captain runs the caucus and records the final vote.

Once inside, votes are not cast in secret, but rather right out in the open for everyone to see. Voters are literally asked to go stand in one corner of the room to show support for their candidate.

Caucus attendees are informed that in order for a candidate to qualify for a delegate they must meet the 15% threshold level. So the first things that occurs after everyone has gone to their respective corners in the room is a head count to see if each candidate has received at least 15% of the vote.

If you are standing in a corner representing a candidate receiving less than 15% of the vote you are informed your vote will not count and you have the option of moving to another corner of the room to offer support for another candidate or to stay where you are realizing your vote will essentially be for naught.

Obviously, discussion ensues with voters attempting to persuade others to come vote for their candidate. This creates an incredible number of scenarios as to the final outcome of the vote. Supporters for a lower tiered candidate could dramatically alter the results by whom they ultimately decide to support.

For the Democrats, if after failing to reach the 15% threshold, who will a supporter of Senators Christopher Dodd (Conn.), Joseph Biden (Del.), Governor William Richardson (NM), and Congressman Dennis Kucinich (Oh) choose to support? Will it be Senator Barack Obama (Ill.) or Senator Hillary Clinton (NY) or will former Senator John Edwards (NC) receive their vote?

Congressman Kucinich issued a press release Tuesday urging his supporters to vote for Senator Obama if he does not receive the 15% threshold. The rumors were flying late last night that Senator Biden and Governor Richarson were following Kucinich's lead and encouraging their supporters to change their vote to Obama if they failed to receive the needed 15% of the vote. It seems the "take no prisoners" approach of the Clinton campaign has not won her support from her fellow Democratic candidates.

This opportunity to discuss candidates and their positions after your first vote and then change your vote will dramatically alter the final outcome in Iowa.

It is estimated that only 25% and less than 150,000 of the registered 600,000 Democrats in Iowa will participate in the caucuses. The lengthy and open process is prohibitive to many voters. Those who do not have the time or would prefer to cast their vote in private will not attend. Past data has shown that a high percentage are older voters who are White with under age 30 voters representing less than 17% of the vote. Exit Polls from the 2004 Iowa caucuses also showed that 40% indicated they made up their mind as to who to vote for during the last week prior to the caucuses.

With so few voting in the Iowa caucuses, the candidate with the best ground organization has an advantage. Former Governor Howard Dean (Ver.) in 2004 was unable to duplicate the incredible support his campaign was receiving nationwide in Iowa. Although he swamped the state with volunteers from all over the country, he did not have an experienced organization on the ground.

Will Obama have students attend the caucuses in record numbers and will his enthusiastic support translate into winning numbers in Iowa? Or will the more seasoned and experienced campaigns of Edwards and Clinton prevail? What if a second tier candidate such as Richardson or Biden gains votes during the caucuses?

These questions will be answered soon as the votes are tallied tonight. Edwards has a good shot at finishing first and Clinton second due to experience in the state, with Obama finishing third. However, if Obama's campaign turns out his supporters and he receives the support of voters formerly supporting a second tier candidate who fails to receive the needed 15%, Obama will easily win Iowa.

A win or second place finish would give a much needed boost to the Edwards campaign. A third place finish by Clinton would seriously damage her effort and remove the inevitable veil she has tried to place on her campaign. If Obama finishes third, he will talk of all the attacks he received leading up to the Iowa caucus and continue his theme of the need for a change in Washington. All three of these candidates have sufficient campaign budgets and will stay in the race until Super Tuesday on February 5, 2008 when half of the states hold their primaries.

Next up is the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday January 8, 2008. In this state, registered Independents may vote in the primary by requesting either a Democrat or Republican ballot. More about this later......

What's Really Important?

Vanessa Rini-Lopez and Steve Lopez

The constitution of the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Confederacy served as a model for the U.S. Constitution. With the 2008 elections coming up, think about using the Seventh Generation precept of the Great Law of the Haudenosaunee (Six Nations Iroquois Confederacy) as a model to help you determine what issues are truly important. This precept requires that chiefs consider the impact of their decisions on the seventh generation.

A lot of media pundits said that President Bush won the 2004 election because of his position on "moral" issues, by getting Gay Marriage proposals on ballots in key states. It is one thing for the Catholic Church or other organized religions to decide not to marry people of the same sex. There is a separation of church and state in this country, and it therefore seems like Gay couples should be allowed to be married in civil ceremonies. What was accomplished by choosing our President based on his or her stance on Gay marriage?

Was our mission in Iraq accomplished? Have all the residential areas affected by Hurricane Katrina been rebuilt? Have the number of children living in poverty declined? We wonder what the seventh generation will think when they read in history books that George W. Bush won the Presidential election in part because of his position on gay marriage. Ask yourself, which are the issues that really impact our lives? Which issues will impact the seventh generation? Which one will people seven generations from now care about? Remember, there is a significant difference between hype and importance.

The candidates are talking about Iraq, but you almost never hear anything about Afghanistan. Is fighting a war on "terrorism" by continuing to send troops into what seems like a no-win situation of our own making in Iraq and a situation in Afghanistan that we don't even hear about anymore going to protect us from another 9/11? No one wants this to happen again. On 9/11 Steve was working in his office across from the Pentagon. Shortly after American Airlines Flight 77 crashed into the Pentagon, he and his colleagues could feel the explosion of the fuel tanks at the Pentagon.

On September 10, 2001, Vanessa was in the Trade Center in New York City trying to figure out which train to take. On September 11th she was stranded in the Bronx because she could not get back to Manhatten. On September 12th she watched the smoke billowing from where she had been two days before as she left the city. Will the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan prevent this from happening again? What will people 150 years from now think of the U.S.'s military action in both of these countries?

Immigration is already a hotly contested issue in the 2008 presidential election debates. Candidates receive rounds of applause when they support building a border fence across the 2000 mile U.S./Mexico border. But, is building a fence really going to slow down or stop poor Latin American people migrating to the U.S. to escape starvation, poverty, and oppression; which are often precipitated by policies such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA)?

How will building a fence across the U.S./Mexico border impact the environment, human rights, or the relationship with Latin America? What do the tribal nations of the Kumeyaay, the Cocopah, the Tohono O'odham, and the Kickapoo think about the U.S. government putting a fence through their land? What will future generations think if a fence is erected?

Health care is going to be another key issue in the 2008 election. A December 28, 2007 AP-Yahoo News shows two-thirds of Americans should adopt a universal health care plan. Is it important to have a choice in your heath care, or is it more important to actually have health care? It's important to have a choice in whom and how your health care is delivered. However not everyone has a choice because health care costs money, money that the poor, the unemployed, and children just can't afford. We are sure this is an issue future generations will care about because our health has a direct impact on the health of our descendants.

Policy decisions made by our government affect us more than we realize. It is vital to have all the facts on an issue in order to make an informed, unbiased decision for the benefit of society as a whole when we cast our vote next November. Keep these words from the constitution of the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Confederacy (http://www.constitution.org/cons/iroquois.htm) in mind when making decisions.

Look and listen for the welfare of the whole people and have always in view not only the present but also the coming generations, even those whose faces are yet beneath the surface of the ground - the unborn of the future Nation

Vanessa Rini-Lopez and Steve Lopez's Column appears every Wednesday