Daily Political Wire 12-2-2010

George Wenschhof

House to Vote on Rangel Censure Today - the long drawn out process will finally come to a close today. The vote will decide whether to censure Representative Charles Rangel (D-NY) or issue a reprimand, as requested by Rangel. The House ethics committee found Rangel guilty on eleven counts of ethics violations and recommended censure. TheHill.com has more here.

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No Charges for Senator John Ensign (R-Nev.) - the senator had been under investigation for payments his parents made to his mistress and for his role in securing a job for the husband of his mistress. Ensign's lawyers say the Justice Department is no longer investigating him. You can read more here.

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House Ethics Committee Suspends Two Lawyers - they were placed on administrative leave with pay, for actions relating to the ethics investigation of Representative Maxine Waters (D- Calf.). She had been accused of steering bailout funds to a bank where her husband owned stock. Waters trail was to have started last month, but was called off without any explanation. stay Tuned... The NY Times Caucus Blog has more here.

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Knowing When to "Hold or Fold" When it Comes to Tax Cuts - the newly formed four member committee by President Obama charged to resolve the tax issue is already meeting with hopes for a proposal emerging as early as Sunday or Monday.

Meanwhile, the House will vote today to extend the tax cuts for those earning $250,000 or less. A largely symbolic vote, as the Senate will not pass it. FirstRead.com has more here.

The question remains as to what Democrats will be able to extract from Republicans in exchange for extension of all the Bush tax cuts. Stay Tuned...

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Former Republican Secretaries of State Urge Ratification of START Treaty - now we know why Colin Powell was meeting with President Obama recently at the White House. He is joined by four other former secretaries of state urging Republican senators to ratify the current START Treaty with Russia. Their op-ed in the Washington Post today can be read here.

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New "Watered Down" DREAM Act Submitted by Senate Democrats - in spite of a much less controversial bill, it is not expected to receive support during the lame duck session. Politico.com has more here. It is doubtful, more liberal Democrats in the House would pass this version anyway.

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Republican Weekly Address 11-20-2010

George Wenschhof

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell continues to push for the extension of all the Bush tax cuts. He accuses Democrats of focusing on controversial issues during the lame duck session of Congress, instead of actions which will create jobs.



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Notes on the Week Ahead in Washington

George Wenschhof

Two weeks will have passed since the mid term elections and President Obama will be back in town after a ten day Asian trip. Results from the mid term elections and the Asian trip were not very positive for the Obama administration as Democrats lost control of the House and little positive outcomes from trade and global economic negotiations were announced during the president's trip.

This week, the Lame-Duck Congress will open and the looming question is what will be accomplished?

While Democrats could pass most of what they wanted as they still maintain a solid majority in the House, Senate Republicans have shown they are capable, with the use of the outdated filibuster, of stopping Democratic legislation.

Before, Congress focuses on what bills to address, they will first vote on their new leadership. Interesting, as the vote will take place before newly elected members of Congress are sworn in.

No major changes are expected on either side as Democrats are expected to keep Harry Reid (Nev.) as Senate Majority Leader and Republicans will keep Mitch McConnell (Ky.) as Minority Leader.

The House Leaders will also stay the same with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calf.) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) merely changing positions upon the start of the new Congress. Democrats avoided a nasty insider fight by agreeing to make Steny Hoyer (Md.) Minority Whip and creating a new position of Assistant Minority Leader position for James Clyburn (N.C.). Eric Cantor (Va.) will assume the Majority Leader position.

With no changes in leadership on either side of the aisle, do not expect much compromise and consensus building to transpire.

However, President Obama will take a stab at it by inviting the leaders of Congress to the White House on Thursday for a afternoon discussion, followed by dinner. Expected to be discussed is what bills can we pass now during the lame-duck and where do we go from here?

No big shake ups expected within the Obama administration other than a long planned exit of Senior White House adviser Axelrod who will most likely be replaced by David Plouffe. In a reversal of roles by the two close advisers as the campaign to reelect Obama kicks into gear come Spring.

Votes most likely to come forward during the lame duck session, in no particular order are as follows:

Extension of Bush Tax Cuts - sunsets as of 12-31-2010. Expect at minimum a passage of all tax cuts for two years, which effectively puts off making a decision. An option picking up support is a passage of all the current tax cuts except those on folks making more than one million.

An interesting figure is if all the tax cuts enacted by the Bush administration were allowed to expire and we went back to the Clinton administration tax levels, the deficit would be reduced by more than 2.5 trillion.

The START Treaty with Russia which further reduces the number of nuclear weapons, is now in danger of not being passed if it is not acted on during the lame duck session. Even if acted on now, the required two-thirds votes needed in the Senate will be difficult. Obama needs this to pass - if this also fails, it will be another blow to his administration.

Extension of Unemployment Benefits - set to expire the end of the year. Democrats will push for a one year extension, but doubtful this will be approved. Look to see a 3-6 month compromised approved.

What should have been proposed is a national public service jobs program which required unemployed to work in an area of public service. This way, a public service would be provided for the tax payers money being spent.

DREAM Act - a bill which provides a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who attend college or serve in the military. This is a good bill and should be approved, but it is unlikely to be approved until a comprehensive immigration bill is introduced.

Energy bill - Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.) will try again for some watered down bill devoid of the controversial cap-and-trade provisions, but it will face stiff opposition.

The deficit reduction commission will also issue their recommendations in early December, but do not expect any action by Congress on them during the lame-duck session.

Also, remember there is a planned update on the Afghanistan war in December planned which would hopefully lead to the beginning of U.S. troop withdrawal this coming summer.

This report is also pivotal for the Obama administration. If the withdrawal of troops is delayed, this would be another setback for Obama and further anger the Democratic base.

Stay Tuned...

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Daily Political Wire 11-12-2010

George Wenschhof

President Obama in Japan today - on the last leg of his Asian trip. The G-20 meetings did not result in any major agreements and the long negotiated trade deal with South Korea also delayed. Japan is facing major economic problems including deflation. CNN.com has more here.

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Obama faces economic issues when he returns home - to compromise or not on the extension of the Bush tax cuts is one of the first issues the president has to confront as the tax cuts expire at the end of the year. Liberal democrats, led by House speaker Nancy Pelosi says Democrats should not compromise. The Washington Post has more here.

In addition, the bipartisan deficit reduction commission co-chairs have released a series of proposals to reduce the deficit which has angered both the Left and Right. The NY Times has more here.

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Congressional Approval Only 17% - the recent mid term elections did little to improve the rating Americans have of Congress. The Gallup poll shows a drop from the 21% approval prior to the elections. Gallup.com has more here.

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Steele to face Challenges for RNC Chair - Saul Anuzis, former chair of the Michigan republican Party has announced he will run for chair of the Republican National Committee. In spite of huge Republican victories in the mid term elections, Steele has been beset with problems and political gaffes after barely winning the chair position in the 11th round of balloting less than two year ago. You can read more here.

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Will an Energy bill be introduced in Lame Duck Session? - doubtful any major legislation will be introduced. However, attempts might be made to require utilities to increase use of clean energy in producing electricity. TheHill.com has more here.

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Dream Act Likely to be Introduced during lame Duck Session - a bill which would provide a pathway to U.S. citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. Citizenship would be earned after serving in the military for two years or attending college. You can read more here.

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FreedomWorks Provides Orientation to Incoming Tea Party Congressmen - Former Republican Majority Leader Dick Armey is leading the several day orientation to new members. Politico.com has more here.

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Daily Political Wire 9-18-2010

George Wenschhof

Murkowski to run as Write-In Candidate - Incumbent U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski will now run as a write-in candidate after losing the Republican primary to Joe Miller. The Democratic candidate; Scott McAdams will likely benefit from this decision. You can read more here.

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Obama losing Democratic support on ending Bush tax cuts to those earning over $250,000 - Seven Democratic Senators and a large number (31) of Democratic Representatives have split with the president's position. They support the extension of all the Bush tax cuts set to expire the end of this year. TheHill.com has more here.

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Hawaii Primary Today - Democratic candidates for Governor; former Representative Neil Abercrombie is facing former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman is what promises to be a close election. Republican Candidate for Governor Duke Aiona is the underdog against whoever wins the democratic primary. CNN.com has more here.

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Afghanistan Parliamentary Elections Today - Taliban threats to create havoc have become reality as hundreds of polls have closed as many came under attack. At least ten civilians have been killed. As a result of the turmoil, turnout has been light in the election which has approximately 2500 candidates vying for 249 seats. The NY Times has more here.

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Six more Bank failures this year keeps focus on economy - the total number of bank failures in the U.S. has not hit 125 for the year. This rate is on pace to equal or surpass the 140 bank failures from last year.

The F.D.I.C. list of problem banks is now 829 with assets of 403 billion. Bloomberg.com has more here.

In addition, 115 banks and thrifts (5 in Maryland) which received "bail-out" federal funds missed dividend payments to the government in August. The Baltimore Sun has more here.

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Republican Response 8-28-2010

George Wenschhof

Today, Florida Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio delivers the Republican weekly address. He calls the 787 billion Stimulus bill a failure and calls for the repeal of the recently passed health care reform legislation.

Rubio also wants to extend the former George W. Bush administration tax cuts for the wealthy set to expire at the end of this year.



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