A U.S. Alliance with a Fragile Pakistan

Even the most casual observer of international relations saw this coming. While President George W. Bush has been busy saber rattling in regard to Iran and it's nuclear development program, the internal situation within Pakistan, a country currently allied with the United States and who has operational nuclear weapons, has been steadily deteriorating.

Yesterday afternoon, President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency and suspended the constitution of Pakistan. The chief justice of their Supreme Court Iftikhar Chaudhry was expelled from the country, communication sources cut off and military forces placed outside the supreme court and the remaining supreme court justice's homes.

The initial reaction from the United States came from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who reportedly said the circumstances were highly regrettable and she hoped for a swift return to democratic and civilian rule. Later in the day it was reported a statement from the U.S. Pentagon said something to the affect that this action did not affect US military support for Pakistan and it's war on terrorism.

Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto was left wondering if she would be arrested or deported. Her recent return to her country after a eight year self imposed exile was met with a fiery explosion that killed over one hundred people but did not injure her. Bhutto's initial statement to the events unfolding was a suspension of the constitution was a suspension of the rule of law. She had hoped that upon to her return to Pakistan a shared power arrangement could have been worked out with President Musharraf but stated his actions today were those of a Dictator and doubted her ability to work with him. She had intended to run for Prime Minister in upcoming parliamentary elections.

President Musharraf in an address to the nation, talked about the threat of Islamic Militants and said his actions were necessary for the safety of Pakistan. Musharraf came to power eight years ago in a bloodless coup and has since retained the dual positions of General and President. Although he promised to relinquish his position as General of the armed forces, he has not done so.

This led to the questioning of the legality of the most recent election held in which Musharraf was reelected as President. Apparently the Supreme Court in Pakistan was about to issue a ruling in regard to the legality of the election when the state of emergency was instituted resulting in the removal of the justices from office.

If the real concern in Pakistan is the rise of Islamic Militants, the suspension of the rule of law is not a way to diminish their influence. In fact, it is more likely the opposite will occur and this action will fuel opposition to Musharraf.

As a result of his action. it is apparent President Musharraf is facing a loss of support within his country. This leadership question in Pakistan is critical to the United States for Musharraf has been an ally in the U. S. War against the Taliban in Afghanistan and the U.S. involvement in Iraq. The leadership of a country with nuclear capability is also critical to the stability in the region.

If a change in leadership occurs in Pakistan, let's hope for a peaceful transition and a quick return to the rule of law.