WHO WILL WIN FIRST FREDERICK COUNTY EXECUTIVE AND COUNCIL ELECTION?

George Wenschhof

The switch to charter government has done little to alter the over two decade long battle over how best to handle growth in Frederick County, Maryland.

Frederick County voters are faced once again with choosing between these two sides when they vote for members of the new county council and county executive.

While they are certainly nuances to the two sides, they are often described and recognized as “pro-growth” or “no-growth”.

Political affiliation does not define the members of the two groups.

In the 2006 county commissioner election, Democrats Jan Gardner and Kai Hagen ran with Republicans John “Lennie” Thompson and David Gray to form what they referred to as the “Dream Team”.  They won that election and served one term.

In that election, Democrats were unable to field a full slate of candidates for commissioner because they were not in agreement on this issue.  A third Democratic candidate Richard Floyd ran with the Dream Team but lost.  The fourth Democratic candidate Ron Wolf did not run with this slate and also lost.

This alliance over growth issues illustrates the age old phrase “politics makes strange bedfellows”.  Republican Commissioner Thompson told me once that although he was in alignment with Democratic Commissioner Gardner on growth, he believed with Blaine Young on less government and less taxes.

Another example is an overwhelming majority of Democrats support The Affordable Care Act. Yet, Democratic candidate for county executive Jan Gardner welcomes the support given her by Residents Against Landsdale Expansion (RALE) president Steve McKay.  Steve McKay is an unaffiliated voter who opposes The Affordable Care Act.

In the 2010 election the Kai Hagen, Ellis Burrus and Janet Wiles ran together on a more managed growth slate for county commissioner and lost handily to Republican Blaine Young and his team of “open for business” Republicans Billy Shreve, Kirby Delauter, and tag along Paul Smith.

Another Democratic candidate Michael Kurtianyck was not included in the Kai team and Democratic candidate Linda Norris attempted to stay away from the Kai slate.  They both would also lose.

Former Commissioners Kai Hagen and Jan Gardner argued strongly on opposite sides of the incinerator issue during the one term they served together.  They both wrote a series of columns that appeared on my Blog with Jan arguing for the incinerator to be built and Kai arguing against it.

Today, because of their agreement on growth policy, those differences have been forgotten with Kai supporting Jan in her run for county executive.

The growth pendulum was swinging again when all five Democratic candidates for county commissioner lost in the 2010 election.  Frederick County Democratic candidates fared poorly in that election with only 2 Democrats elected in over 20 Frederick County positions on the ballot.  They were long time Democratic political leaders Ron Young (state senate district 3) and Galen Clagett (state delegate district 3-A).

Do not look to see Clagett support Jan Gardner for county executive. In the 2013 City of Frederick election, Clagett, after losing to Karen Young in the Democratic primary for mayor, endorsed incumbent Republican mayor Randy McClement, who went on to win reelection.

In this 2014 county executive race Jan Gardner cleared the way for an unopposed primary and encouraged former “Dream Team” member commissioner David Gray to run against Blaine Young in the Republican primary.  Her thoughts were this would damage him among the “no-growth” Republican voters and cause him to spend campaign funds. Blaine’s short lived campaign for governor had produced a flush campaign chest.

Two well qualified and well known Democratic businessmen, Earl Robbins and Gordon Cooley considered a run for county executive and decided against it.  Both are more moderate when it comes to growth issues than Jan Gardner, but understood they would have a tough battle against Gardner in the Democratic primary when fewer voters cast their ballots and those voters tend to be more progressive.

To no one’s surprise, following David Gray’s expected loss to Blaine Young in the Republican primary, Gray endorsed Democrat Jan Gardner for county executive.

It would not be startling to see Democratic state delegate Galen Clagett endorse Republican Blaine Young for county executive.

So, the growth issue continues to be paramount in the county executive and county council race.

Prior to the 2014 election, voters decided, by referendum, to change to charter government. They will be electing a county executive and a seven member county council. Two of the council members are elected at large, similar to how previous commissioners were elected and five will be elected in single member districts.

Each voter will cast a ballot for a county executive, 2 at-large council members and 1 council member from their district.

Determining on what side of the growth issue each county executive candidate is on is easy on the long anticipated matchup between Jan Gardner(D) and Blaine Young(R).  This race should be tilted in favor of Gardner after many unpopular decisions by commissioner President Blaine Young. But do not underestimate the ability of Young to emerge victorious.

Open for business and pro-growth Republicans emerged from the primary with the Democratic candidates moving on to the general election being more difficult to clearly label.

The 2 at-large council member races will have Democrats Susan Reeder Jesse and Linda Norris facing Republicans Billy Shreve and Bud Otis.

Commissioner Shreve and Otis are easy to label as “open for business”. However, it will be hard to place a no-growth label on Norris and Reeder-Jesse. They have crossover appeal and in a county that features a majority of Republican voter registration, look for both to be competitive.  In addition, Susan is the daughter of former Democratic commissioner Bruce Reeder, who was considered business friendly during his time in office.

Shreve and Otis are the early favorites in this election because of a Republican voter registration advantage.  However, who wins the county executive race will influence who wins these two seats on the council.  If Jan Gardner wins convincingly against Blaine Young, don’t be surprised if one or both of the Democratic women candidates win.  Conversely, if Blaine Young wins, both Shreve and Otis could end up on the council.

In district 1, Democrat Jerry Donald faces Republican Ellen Bartlett.  Numerous sources told me Bartlett came across poorly in candidate forums in the primary, but look to see her win this election.  Her win will be primarily due to last name recognition of her husband who served in congress for two decades.

In district 2, the race is between Democrat Annette Breiling and Republican Tony Chmelik.  Breiling, like her Democratic counterpart Donald in district 1, is surely the better candidate.  However, look to see Chmelik win.

Both Chmelik and Bartlett would go in the pro-growth category.

District 3 has Democrat M.C. Keegan Ayer against Republican Denny Shafer.  Shafer campaigned with Young in the primary, but look to see M.C. Ayer win this seat on the council.

District 4 features Democrat Jessica Fitzwater against Republican Bob Lawrence.  Fitzwater is new to politics and still has a lot to learn about county government, but will win in this district that has a majority of Democratic voters.

Finally, in District 5 it is Democrat Mark Long against Republican and current commissioner Kirby Delauter.  Democrats believe Delauter is vulnerable and Long will win this seat.  Look to see Delauter win this seat, primarily a result of a Republican voter registration advantage.

I have Democrats winning in district 3 and 4 and Republicans winning in district 1, 2 and 5.

Democrats could win a majority of seats on the council if they win both at-large seats.  This could happen with a convincing win by Jan Gardner.  Due to Republican voter registration advantage in the county, the more likely scenario is for one Democratic and one Republican to be elected in the at-large seats.

If Gardner wins, the council make up would most likely be a 4-3 Republican advantage.

On the other hand, if Blaine Young wins, the council make up could be 5-2 Republican.

The majority on the council will likely be “pro-growth” regardless of who wins for county executive.

Voters will have the final say when they weigh in on Tuesday November 4.

Stay tuned.

LOW VOTER TURNOUT STORY IN MARYLAND ELECTION

George Wenschhof

When the absentee ballots are finally counted, the primary turnout in Maryland will fall way short of what I had predicted to be a low 35%.  Sadly, it was common to see lots of campaign signs at polling locations and few voters.

The move of the primary date from September to June surely impacted turnout.  But, as I pointed out in my column Monday, the ongoing gerrymandering of districts of the political party in power, the unregulated amount of money in politics and the difficult process for a viable third party to become established, all play a significant part in voter apathy and their lost of trust in government.

There were no big surprises across the state with Lt. Governor Anthony Brown winning the Democratic nomination for governor of the state.  He will face Republican Larry Hogan as he campaigns to become the first African American governor of Maryland and the third in the nation.

The good news for Brown is both of his opponents; state delegate Heather Mizeur and Attorney General Doug Gansler spoke in their concession speeches how they will help ensure a victory for Brown in November.

It would be wise for the Brown campaign to find a prominent role for both to play in the general election and if successful in November, a position in his administration.

State senator Brian Frosh, the most experienced and qualified candidate, came from behind in early polling to convincingly win the Democratic nod for Attorney General.

Likeable and effective Democratic state Comptroller Peter Franchot, who decided against a run for Governor, will be favored to win easily in November.  One of the three members of the state’s powerful Board of Public Works, he is known to speak his mind, especially when it comes to spending taxpayer money effectively.

In one unexpected result, Senate minority leader David Brinkley (R-district 4) was crushed by state delegate Michael Hough.  Hough, who received 68% of the vote, used the tea party playbook of negative campaigning, primarily accusing Brinkley of not being a conservative.

Hough will face a spirited battle from Democrat Dan Rupli in the general election, but Rupli will need help from disgruntled Brinkley supporters in the district that has a heavy Republican voter registration.

Ike Leggett beat back a challenge for former county executive Doug Duncan with a 45% – 32% win in the Democratic primary in his bid to continue as county executive.  Leggett is heavily favored to win in November.

State delegate Tom Hucker(D) leads by 217 votes over Evan Glass(D) in the Democratic District 5 Montgomery County council primary.  Hucker should withstand absentee counting to win that contest.

In Frederick County, voters had their first opportunity to vote for county executive and county council as they move to implement charter government.

Incumbent Frederick board of county commissioners president Blaine Young (R) narrowly won the Republican primary with 53%, despite his campaign spending heavily against two candidates; David Gray and Mark Sweadner, who did little campaigning and spent little money.

This sets up the anticipated battle between Democrat Jan Gardner and Blaine Young over who will become the first executive for Frederick County.

If, past numbers are a reliable guide, look to see voter turnout in November exceed 60%.

Stay tuned.

INCREASING VOTER TURNOUT AND RESTORING DEMOCRACY

George Wenschhof

After a week of early voting opportunity, Maryland voters have one last chance to cast their ballot on Tuesday June 24.  Polls across the state will be open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM.

Unfortunately, apathy continues to prevail and the anticipated turnout is expected to be low.  If, I were a betting man, I would predict a turnout around 35%.

Why turnout is expected to be low is an important discussion and one that needs to happen, not just in Maryland, but across the country.

In Maryland, the moving of the primary date from early September to June, after school is out will be questioned.

However, looking at past primary turnout in Maryland reveals a less than 40% turnout is commonplace.

In light of a full week of early voting with multiple polling locations statewide, if low turnout does result, a more in depth review must take place.

Underlying low turnout in America is likely the result of an overall distrust in government.

State legislatures, dominated by Republicans or Democrats have been gerrymandering districts to favor their respective party for decades.

The resulting “safe” seat ensures their party is represented in state legislatures and in congress.

Often, the low turnout in primaries is heavily made up of engaged activists who are motivated to vote.

These small number of progressive or conservative activists determine the winner in the primary and with the seat considered “safe” that candidate often goes on to win the general election.

The result has been a gridlocked and polarized congress with elected Democrats and Republicans strongly infused with ideology.

Absent today in Congress, is the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), a pragmatic group of representatives that were strong when President Bill Clinton was in office.  It was the DLC along with the shrewdness of Clinton, who helped move his agenda forward in a Republican congress.

The strategy used by many presidential candidates to run in the primary to the left if you are a Democrat and run to the right if you are a Republican with the candidates then delicately moving closer to the center as they campaign in the general election, when more voters weigh in, has become commonplace.

Today, restoring belief and faith in government is paramount to restoring democracy.

One step toward restoring faith would be to end politicians determining their voters.  Nonpartisan committees should be established by legislatures in all states across the country to determine redistricting, if called for by the census.

Another signal of the distrust in government is the fastest growing segment of voters across the country is unaffiliated voters.

This has been going on for some time now, yet a viable third party, prevalent in most other representative democracies across the world, is unable to take hold in the United States.

Making it easier for a third party to become established should be examined seriously with recommendations implemented.

The staggering amount of money in politics is the third area that must be addressed.  Political committees, emboldened by recent Supreme Court decisions are pumping unprecedented sums of money into races all over the country.

The ability of those with wealth to have more influence on an election than those who are poor, tears at the very core of democracy, where one vote should not be more powerful than another.

History teaches us representative democracy is not easy and will often be tested.  However, the U.S. constitution fortunately offers the best framework for representative democracy that exists today.

Working within that framework to restore trust and belief in voters is also vital.

Establishing nonpartisan committees to handle redistricting in states across the country, providing an easier path to establish a viable third party and getting the money out of politics would be an excellent start at restoring trust.

Maybe then, voters would begin electing leaders who are able to bring Americans together to develop a shared vision and sustainable future for local communities and the country.

Stay tuned.

MD DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR RACE CLOSING FAST

George Wenschhof

Candidates are working hard making their final appeal to voters prior to the rapidly approaching June 24 primary election in Maryland. At the same time, some voters are weighing in at early voting polling locations across the state where they can cast their ballots through Thursday June 19.

When the votes are counted, in what is expected to be a low turnout, look to see Lt. Governor Anthony Brown prevail over Attorney General Doug Gansler and delegate Heather Mizeur in the Democratic primary election for Governor.

It is also likely Brown, will win with a plurality of the vote and not a majority.  In a recent Baltimore Sun survey, Brown had a commanding lead over his competitors, but received only 41%.  Maryland is not a state that requires a majority vote, so there will be no runoff election.

Mizeur surprised many by running arguably the best campaign among the three front running Democratic candidates for governor.  She was consistent in all of the forums and stayed out of the bickering that was taking place between Gansler and Brown.

Knowing there was ground to be made up, Gansler’s campaign decided early to go after Brown, criticizing him for the botched launch of the state exchange for the Affordable Care Act and for implementing 40 tax hikes during the Governor Martin O’Malley/Brown administration.

Brown, with the backing of O’Malley and the state Democratic establishment, played it cautious throughout the primary.  Knowing he had a sizable lead, the Brown campaign decided to play it safe, without proposing any bold or new ideas.  Instead, they were comfortable running on the record of the past 8 years under the O’Malley/Brown administration.

A legacy many Democrats are proud of.  Passage of The Dream Act, repeal of the death penalty, increasing the minimum wage, gay marriage, and medical marijuana are a few of the landmark bills that were passed under the O’Malley/Brown administration.

Unfortunately for Gansler, his attacks on the health care roll out and tax hikes sounded like remarks coming from Republicans and not a fellow Democrat. Sure enough, the campaign for Larry Hogan who is the likely winner in the Republican primary for governor just began running television ads mirroring what Gansler has been saying.

Lost during the campaign attacks was the support Gansler gave to Barrack Obama when he was running for president and The Affordable Care Act and his belief that everyone deserves health care.  The strong supportive positions Gansler has taken over the years on many issues dear to Democrats and the battles he undertook on their behalf seemed to get fogged over in the campaign haze.

The new and fresh voice of Heather Mizeur, along with her never ending energy propelling her campaigning statewide has captured the support of many progressive Maryland Democrats.

Never expected to serious compete, the first openly gay candidate for Governor in Maryland has surprised many and will end up battling Gansler for second place.

Mizeur’s call for the legalization and regulation of marijuana is actually based on very sound reasoning.  With only two states, Colorado and Washington having passed similar laws, perhaps her call is premature.

On the other hand, legalization would not only save money on enforcement and incarceration, it would create a revenue stream for state coffers. Her call to bring back the millionaire tax, speed up the increase of the minimum wage and address income inequality should be acted on.

Gansler’s concern that a recent Gallup poll showed 47% of Marylanders say they want to leave the state is a valid concern and one that needs to be addressed immediately.  As is his call to address the achievement gap between white and minority students in the state.

Economic and community development, job creation and addressing income inequality should be a major emphasis for the next governor of Maryland. A strong, effective public education system and affordable housing for all also deserve attention from the next Governor of Maryland.  Continued focus on the environment and protection of the Chesapeake Bay is paramount.

The challenges are big for the next governor of Maryland.  The Anthony Brown/Ken Ulman team has the experience and skills to meet these challenges.  Winning with a plurality vote, it would be sensible to include in a major role, both Attorney General Doug Gansler and delegate Heather Mizeur in the general election campaign.

Furthermore, should Brown prevail in November to become Governor, it would be wise for him and a benefit for Maryland if he found a productive role for each to play in his administration.

Stay tuned.