Daily Political Wire 11-5-2010

George Wenschhof

President Obama begins Asian Trip - getting out of town may be a good idea for the president following the huge losses suffered by Democrats in Tuesday's elections. He will travel to India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan. Obama hopes the trip will result in increasing U.S. exports and create more U.S. jobs.



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Obama to be guest on CBS "60 Minutes" Sunday - the president admits he failed in making a stronger argument to the people in regard to his policies. The program was taped before the president left on his foreign policy trip and will air on Sunday at 7:00 PM ET.



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150,000 jobs added in October - a larger than expected increase in jobs across America. However, unemployment remains at 9.6%. Bloomberg.com has more here.

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Mid Term Election Update - Democratic Senator Patty Murray won the Washington state race so Democrats will have 51 Senators with another 2 Independents who caucus with them for a total of 53. Republicans have 46 with Alaska still undecided between newly Independent Lisa Murkoski and Republican Joe Miller. Murkowski who is ahead but facing challenges to write-in votes will caucus with Republicans if she is declared the winner.

The House is currently Republicans with 239 seats, Democrats with 186 seats and 10 races still undecided.

Chris Cillizza and "TheFix.com" has more here.

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Will Pelosi run for House Minority Leader? - word has it she and supporters are calling House democrats to see if support is there. Representative Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) is the other who may receive support for this position. Politico.com has more here.

Look to see Pelosi win House Minority Leader position. After serving as Speaker, she will be hard pressed to serve as just one of the House Democrats. Political junkies will also remember she beat out Steny Hoyer for Speaker in a bitter contest and this behind the scenes struggle is likely to have the same results.

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Will Democratic Senator Charles Schumer (NY) be next chair of DSCC? - another behind the scenes maneuvering as Harry Reid (Nev.) will want to retain his Senate Majority Leader position with Schumer and Illinois Senator Richard Durbin rumored to be interested in the Majority Leader position.

A possible deal in the works would make Schumer head of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, replacing Robert Menendez (NJ), who is resigning to concentrate on his own reelection in two years. TheHill.com has more here.

Durbin would be a good choice to replace Reid and would also send a signal to Democratic voters that changes are being made.

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Meanwhile, Republican gains unlikely to result in any substantive changes in Government - Republicans are sticking with their goal of cutting spending even as most economists say this action would be detrimental to the economy. The NY Times has more here.

In addition, Republican leadership is faced with reaching consensus among Republicans on the course of action they should take. Newly elected tea party backed congressmen will want immediate action. If republicans continue to act as obstructionists, will their mid term election success be short lived as American voters tire of the gridlock in Washington? The Washington Post has a good read here.

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Early Vote Provides Win for Young

George Wenschhof

The 2010 election was the first in the state of Maryland for early voting and Democrat Ron Young was one candidate who benefited from the early turnout of voters.

Ron Young is leading incumbent state senator Republican Alex Mooney (district 3) by 665 votes with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted. Although, the winner has not been certified by the state, I called the race for Ron Young on election night.

The reason I called the race is Mr. Young had built a 878 vote lead in Frederick County (there is a very small sliver of Washington County in district 3) at the conclusion of the early voting period and after an additional 37,991 votes were cast on election day, Young still had a lead of 665 votes .

The total votes early votes were 4,076 with Young receiving 2,477 and Mooney receiving 1,599.

On election day, (including 576 votes cast in Washington County), there were a total of 37,991 votes cast with Mooney receiving 19,107 and Young receiving 18,884. So, on election day, Mooney won by 223 votes.

After 37,991 additional votes had been cast, Mooney was only able to reduce the early voting Young lead from 878 to 665.

On election night, I had estimated there would not be more than 3,000 total absentee and provisional ballots remaining to be counted, making it statistically difficult, in a closely contested race, for Mooney to gain the 665 votes needed to claim victory.

The actual number of Frederick County absentee ballots received to date is 1,616 and another 717 provisional ballots will also be counted next week for a total of 2,333. A few more absentee ballots postmarked on November 2 may yet be received in time for next week's count.

Today, expect a major portion of the 1,616 Frederick County absentee ballots to be counted.

While, statistics favor Young, it is not surprising Mooney has not conceded, as anything is possible until all the votes have been tallied.

Expect the current 665 vote lead by Young to narrow after the absentee count today, but for him to maintain the lead.

Also, there is a distinct possibility Mooney could demand a recount of the vote. Rumors are he is questioning returns from Whittier, where he believes there were some abnormalities in the vote. He had been trending with a similar vote as Republican candidate for Governor, Robert Ehrlich, in other polling locations.

Unless, the vote difference between the candidates is less than one tenth of one per cent (presently 43 votes), the Mooney campaign would be responsible for the cost of the recount.

Interestingly, when early voting was instituted in Maryland, counties were assigned early voting centers and the number of centers. Frederick County received one location in the City of Frederick, even though Elections Director Stuart Harvey requested three locations.

Although, Frederick County only represents about 3.5% of the registered voters in the state, it is the largest geographical region of any county in the state. A location in Thurmont and Urbana, as requested by Mr. Harvey makes sense.

It appears Mr. Young also benefited from a larger early voter turnout from district 3-a, a strong Democratic voter registered district. The City of Frederick, where the early voting center was located, is a large portion of legislative district 3-a, which is one of the two legislative districts which make up state senate district 3. The other legislative district is district 3-b which is the southern portion of Frederick County and the sliver in Washington County.

Stay Tuned...

5:10 PM ET Update - the first round of absentee ballots have been counted in Frederick County and Ron Young received 719 and Mooney 517. Young has now increased his overall lead by 202. No numbers were available from Washington County. However, the absentee ballots are expected to be much fewer than Frederick County and will not affect the outcome of this race. Frederick County elections has the absentee count here.

The Young lead has now grown to 867 votes without the Washington County absentee vote added. With approximately 1200 absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, Young can clearly claim victory.

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Republicans Win Big Nationwide - What's Next?

George Wenschhof

The huge Republican wave was predicted by all political analysts. Only Representative Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put up the strong front, even though he had to realize the writing was on the wall.

As of this morning, Republicans have gained 60 seats in the House with 12 races still undecided. So, John Boehner (R-Ohio) will be the next House Speaker replacing Nancy Pelosi (D-Calf.). Republicans now have 239 seats in the 435 member House and will likely add another 4-6 as the current 12 close races are tallied.

In the Senate, Democrats retained a majority and Harry Reid (D-Nev.) survived a tough fight from Republican Sharron Angle to win reelection and most likely remain as Senate Majority Leader.

Democrats currently have 51 seats (2 of which are Independents) and Republicans have 46 with 3 races still undecided. One of those is Alaska where Lisa Murkowski is likely to be declared the winner over Republican Joe Miller. Much legal wrangling is expected as the write-in vote will be scrutinized. Either way, this will be a Republican seat as Murkowski has already said she will caucus with the Republicans.

Colorado and Washington are the two other undecided Senate races. Bennet (D) and Buck (R) are separated by one percentage point. In Washington, Murray (D) and Rossi (R) are tied.

What comes next for Congress and Americans is the burning question that remains to be answered.

President Obama will be making a speech at 1:00 PM ET today, where he will try to set the tone as to how he plans to work with a divided Congress.

Will statesmanship and the art of compromise prevail or will continued gridlock in Washington be what Americans can expect over the next two years leading up to the 2012 presidential election.

Stay Tuned...

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Clagett and Young Only Democrats to Win in Frederick County

George Wenschhof

Democrats across the country suffered defeats as Republicans had a net gain of over 60 seats in the House as they won a solid majority.

Maryland, a solid blue state lost one of those seats; the first district, where one term Democrat Frank Kratovil lost to Republican Andrew Harris. Incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley and all other seven incumbent congressmen won.

However, the huge win by Democrat Ron Young over three term incumbent and ineffective state senator Alex Mooney (district 3) was overshadowed by the crushing defeat Democrats suffered in Frederick County, Maryland.

His friend and fellow Democrat, Galen Clagett was the other of the only two Democrats to win. Clagett won another term as he led the voting among the candidates for two state delegate seats in district 3-a.

They were the only two Democrats to win out of the twenty local positions on the ballot.

Ron Young won by less than 2%, as I had predicted, 50.86% to 48.97% for Alex Mooney. When the small portion of Washington county is added, Young received 21,361 votes to 20,706 for Mooney, a 665 vote difference. Absentee and provisional ballots still need to be counted. However, this lead by Young will be hard to make up by Mooney when those ballots are counted.

The county commissioner race saw all five seats won by Republicans with Blaine Young (Ron Young's son) receiving the most votes and in line to be the next president of the board. The only "no-growth" candidate to win was incumbent Republican David Gray.

Voters joined me in voting against ineffective Kai Hagen, who came in sixth, 6,000 votes behind Republican Kirby Delauter, who won the last spot on the five member board. The other two Republicans winning seats on the board were Paul Smith and Billy Shreve.

Hagen had also recruited candidates who supported his anti-Incinerator stance with hopes a new board would be able to reverse a previous decision to build an Incinerator to handle waste disposal for the county. This position failed, in large part, due to a lack of a reasonable alternative being presented to voters.

The other positions won by Republicans were:
6th District Congress - Roscoe Bartlett
State senate District 4 - David Brinkley
State delegate district 3-b - Michael Hough
State delegate district 3-a - Pat Hogan
State delegate district 4-b - Donald Elliot
State delegate district 4-a - Keely Schulz, Kathy Afzali
State's Attorney - Charlie Smith
Clerk Circuit Court - Sandra Dalton
Register of Wills - Virginia Fifer
Judge of the Orphan's Court - Cleopatra Campbell, Mike Cady, Adrian Remsberg
Sheriff - Chuck Jenkins

The Young family made it three for three as Brad Young received the most votes in the nonpartisan Board of Education race. Joining him were James Reeder Jr., Jean Smith, and April Fleming Miller. Colleen Cusimano finished fifth, only 224 votes behind Miller so absentee and provisional ballots could affect the final outcome for the last spot.

Frederick County Elections has the unofficial results you can read here.

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