What to do with Michigan and Florida

George Wenschhof

I wrote in mid January the move by the Democratic National Committee to strip the delegates from Michigan and Florida could have dire consequences. This was done as a punitive action for moving their primaries earlier in the schedule to an unsanctioned date. Unfortunately, I was right. Punitive action that resulted in the disenfranchisement of Democratic voters who had nothing to do with the scheduling of the date of their primary election, simply made no sense.

As chair of the DNC, Howard Dean had years to work out the primary schedule and failed to do so. Many states, and rightfully so, objected to the first in the nation status given the Iowa caucuses and the first primary status given to New Hampshire. They are the only two states traditionally allowed to hold Democratic primaries in January.

Over the years, as campaign strategy changed, it became important, if not clear, that wins in these two early states could propel a candidate to the democratic party nomination. It was Jimmy Carter, who emerged as the winner in the 1976 Democratic primary and went on to become President, that set this modern day trend. Carter rose from somewhat obscurity as Governor of Georgia and won Iowa. He used the national recognition he achieved from winning this contest to distance himself from the other Democratic candidates.

Since 1976, the democratic nomination process has resulted in a nominee way before the end of scheduled state primaries, leaving many states effectively out of the nomination process. This has obviously led to many states becoming frustrated with the primary schedule and questioning why Iowa should have so much influence on who the Democratic Party candidate for President will be.

After considerable haggling and negotiation with various state officials and the DNC, two additional states, Nevada and S.Carolina were allowed to hold their primaries in the sacred month of January for this election year. The reported reasoning was to add a state from the West, (Nevada) and one from the South, (S. Carolina). Of course, other state officials immediately noticed that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is the representative of Nevada. Others, would rationalize that Democrats needed to do better in the South and among African-American voters so adding S. Carolina to January made sense.

So after several years of negotiation, the best Howard Dean and the DNC could achieve is status quo with Iowa and New Hampshire and adding just two states to the schedule in January. The earliest date following the month of January sanctioned by the DNC became February 5th and not so surprisingly, close to 25 states scheduled primaries on that day. This led some pundits to say why not just hold a single national Democratic primary election day? Others say why not just hold five primaries every two weeks from January to May which would spread out and stagger more fairly the primaries across the country. Obviously many ideas exist but this nonetheless shows clearly the failure of the DNC to effectively schedule a primary calendar.

Now the credentials committee of the DNC will meet on May 31 to conduct hearings on the seating of the 366 delegates from Michigan (156) and Florida (210). The Clinton campaign realizes that a extremely favorable ruling is the only hope they have at securing the nomination and at this point, it is a long shot. The Obama campaign has signaled they are willing to compromise for they realize the delegate math is in their favor. Seating some of the delegates from these states will be accommodated and Clinton will be able to point to her advocacy on behalf of these states, while Obama will win the party nomination. While the outcome of this meeting should finalize this issue, the Florida and Michigan fiasco will forever be a footnote in this Democratic party Presidential candidate primary election.

The only other possible solution to the awarding of delegates from these two states is to conduct a re-vote. Although this option was considered dead after earlier negotiations failed, both states have state elections coming up in August. Michigan (Aug.5) and Florida (Aug.26) could still add the names of Obama and Clinton to their Ballots and the cost of these elections would be minimal for they are already scheduled. CNN had a article about this earlier this month where they pointed out the Democratic National Convention is August 25-28 in Denver so this could work but the Florida results would not be known until the second day of the convention.

Don't look to see a re-vote happen. All the democratic candidates knew the rules when they filed and agreed to the sanctions given to Florida and Michigan by the DNC. The candidates did not campaign in these states and Obama was not even on the Ballot in Michigan.

It is clear the DNC and Democratic party representatives from all the states need to meet following this election to develop a primary schedule that makes sense in the twenty-first century. While they are at it, they also need to revise the convoluted and confusing method of awarding delegates (including superdelegates) to the candidates.

In spite of these shortcomings, this Democratic party primary election has been one of the most exciting and engaging ever in history. It is certain that either a Woman or an African-American will be the Democratic candidate for President of the United States.

Regardless of what some may say, Democrats will unite and rally around their nominee to ensure there is not a continuation of the failed policies of the President George W. Bush administration.

Appalachian Blues on Hillbilly Highway

Jack Lynch

As you read this article, I will be traveling down Interstate 81 in Virginia with my father to attend the Dr. Ralph Stanley annual Hills of Home Memorial Weekend Bluegrass Festival and celebrate the music of my heritage in the mountains of North Carolina. My own son, five years old, is growing up under the influence of these sounds of acoustic aural identity – "Dad, don't let them hear that – they'll think we're crazy!" But he really loves it, rocking in the backseat as the banjo's ring out. Whenever he gets in the car now, he asks for bluegrass on the satellite radio.

I spent a lot of time living with extended family in the mountains of North Carolina – they had been there generations - while growing up inside the beltway, I regularly spent summers and holiday seasons in that subsection of the larger American south – so Appalachian values come native, as they say…and the recent national media fascination with the Appalachian region's rejection of Obama appears to me to say more about the mindset of the press and the culture than it does about the supposed hillbilly aesthetic I know.

Neither native son, John Edwards, nor the great American salvation candidate, Barack Obama, have much effect on the mountains of Appalachia - even as they espouse common man values and identification with the downtrodden – the New South is a wary bird, its plumage more effect, and its reality too honest in its evangelical beliefs, to take distraction and become swayed by the sort of blather laid down by the suited millionaires seeking the keys to an earthly kingdom.

"You should never be hungry," Obama told a cheering crowd …, "you should never be homeless, you should never face the threat of poverty, ever!" - and "For too long Washington has ignored their struggles. For too long, they've been told, 'there's nothing we can do to help you.' – Edwards added in announcing his support. Link

It sounds like a message that might reach Appalachia – but it falls on empty ears – places where the three crosses placed on hills along the interstate by a lottery winner have more credence – the social justice of Appalachia has never been handouts or government support – in fact, within my family and friends, those eligible virtually always rejected such offers – except when there was no breadwinner at home, and the commodities of cheese and canned beef were handed out.

I've tasted those commodities meals, and the cornbread and pinto bean lunches, along with squirrel and rabbit and even bear from the hill hunts. One difference between that kind of poverty, and what is more normative in our more economically developed areas – is that you could grow enough to get by on, on your own plat of land.

The story of southern adaption and inheritance of African banjers, and light fealty to blues taught to early country music artists by black workmen, the first guitar lessons of Hank Williams and Doc Watson – would seem to fare well for Democratic political identity. But a recent New York Times article, Skirting Appalachia, reminds us of the conservative heart of the hardscrabble life and poverty, its seeming inconsistencies and idiosyncrasies – and its humor at the rest of the country.

Loyal Jones described the unique characteristics of the region in his book, Appalachian Values - independent, self-reliant, proud, neighborly, hospitable, humble, modest, patriotic - …Appalachians hang the US flag in public places, on their houses, on their cars, wear them on their clothing and even decorate the inside of their homes in Americana.

At the University of North Carolina, I studied writing under Fred Chappell, whose wonderful little tall tale tome I Am One of You Forever, sums up the feeling of the diaspora Appalachian, in the end, a ghostly dream voice asks, "Well, Jess, are you one of us or not?" and the boy answers with the books title. But often the greatest state export has been people looking for work – as an old joke goes, "Why did the Governor of West Virginia resign? …because, Ford called the workers back."

So what are the politics of Appalachia that rejects the now presumptive Obama as the Democratic nominee? – exactly the kind of cultural and community identification that Obama lacks and seems to disregard in his own multi-cultural life – for no true Christian man can be truly universal, even while his belief may be universal, the proof is in the details, in the ordinary and the mundane and the reality of time and person and place – most importantly, place – and Obama has proven rootless in his place in the Appalachian eye.

At least one blogger has suggested that an antidote to Obama's Hillbilly Blues would be to take Virginia's Jim Webb as a Vice presidential running mate. There is hardly anyone as verbally Scots-Irish and combative as the Appalachian mountaineers who took on the power of the nascent Federal government in the Whiskey Rebellion in 1791. It's recalled in the annals of moonshiners. Webb is also famous for snubbing President Bush's handshake at a White House reception soon after being elected when Bush inquired about his son's stint in Iraq. He would certainly be a bold and saber rattling compliment to Obama nice guy coolness. White blue collar American's would certainly take notice – if not offense!

Webb wrote what may be Hillary Clinton's Appalachian Spring, "…[his father laid out] ``the eternal ground rules for street fighting,'' which now find their echoes in the last days of the Clinton campaign: ``Never start a fight, but never run away, even if you know you are going to lose. ... And whomever you fight, you must make them pay. You must always mark them, so that the next day they have to face the world with a black eye or a cut lip or a bruised cheek, and remember where they got it.'' Link

It is very much place, but more so land that defines the Appalachian clinging to a different world view and politics – the old verities are farm and home and family – there was always a sharing – of food, of work, of music and laughter. In the old country the kingdom meant subservience and overbearing power – our heritage is to fight on.

America is not much like that anymore. Now global, it hangs in the balance between overwhelming richness of resources and purchasing power – and the hungry hordes without clean water and land and a stake in a community, besides sustenance and strict obedience to dictators. The story of American freedom is not about law but active resistance to government shackles – the revolutionaries were a vocal minority risking lives. They were more Appalachian than not.

The hope would be that a bridge between these worlds can lift us above our current national course, making us recognize ourselves in global populations struggles, and make us all more Appalachian in our values. It is something that would be good for Obama and Edwards to hear and learn about as they whistle stop through American life, after all the least among us are said by our preachers to rise one day.

As Obama talks about clean coal, green coal, excuse me? Mountaintop removal, under laws rewritten directly by President Bush's executive agency order of the Clean Water Act, is going forward in West Virginia. Neither of our candidates have gone far enough to blast the destruction of poor Appalachian communities, or the way of life of Appalachia, to appease this unrepentant hillbilly, on the highway, bound for a bluegrass love fest in the shallow end of the gene pool.

Without my education, I'd still have family and community – without family and a close community, I'd be left a totally different person, in my opinion rootless and bootless. I'd like my candidates to understand that about the people where I come from, in Appalachia, and to really care about it.

I expect Appalachia will be ignored again after the election, as it nearly always is, it was on the top 100 fascinating things list in the late sixties, probably because of George Wallace – but once any possible southern strategy by Republicans fades this time in their disarray and failure – the hillbillies can go back to Nascar and the beauty of the mountains, to be left alone – and they like that mostly.

The country, and the world, may face Appalachian economic realities between energy costs, the war and recession – it needn't trouble Edwards or Obama.

Democratic National Committee Launches New Website "McCainpedia"

In a play of words from the popular information website Wikipedia, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has started McCainpedia, a website which will follow Republican Senator John McCain in his race for the White House.

On the website, they say: "McCainpedia.org is a wiki run by the DNC's Research, Communications, and Internet teams. The goal is to centralize research material, allowing the general public to use it as they see fit. Unlike some wikis, McCainpedia is read-only and can't be edited by the public. This allows us to fully validate all of the information that appears, ensuring accuracy and reliability.

McCainpedia follows FlipperTV, which puts video taken by Democratic "trackers" of John McCain as he campaigns across the country, and allows users to watch, download, and use the footage as they wish. FlipperTV has now been incorporated into McCainpedia alongside all of the research information".

We have added a permanent link to McCainpedia under the heading "Democratic Party" in the right hand margin of our Home Page. Make sure you click on it often for updates on the campaign.

Current Democratic Delegate Count 5-21-2008

George Wenschhof

The Democrats are finally near the end of a long and exciting primary schedule with only three remaining primaries with a total of 86 pledged delegates. In less than two weeks, Montana (16 pledged delegates) and S. Dakota (15 pledged delegates) will hold the last primaries on June 3rd. Two days before, Puerto Rico (55 pledged delegates) will hold their primary.

So what does the delegate math look like? Well, after yesterday's primaries in Kentucky and Oregon so far Clinton won 53 and Obama won 42. There are still 7 outstanding delegates to be assigned from Oregon and 1 from Kentucky. The best Clinton can hope for is a 5-3 split in her favor and most likely it will be a 4-4 split. The 12 delegate pick up by Clinton I predicted yesterday is just about correct.

RealClearPolitics.com has the new total delegates with the above numbers as Obama 1957 and Clinton 1775

We all know by now that 2025 delegates are needed to secure the nomination - or is it? The 2025 figure was arrived at by not including the total 366 delegates from Michigan ( 128 pledged and 28 superdelegates) and Florida (185 pledged and 25 superdelegates). These two states had their delegates stripped by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) because they held their primaries at an earlier unsanctioned date in the Democratic primary schedule.

So currently, the number of available delegates are 86 pledged and 158 superdelegates for a total of 244 delegates. Out of the 86 pledged delegates, even if Clinton won all three contests by 60%, she would not win more than 52 delegates to 34 for Obama. However, this would leave Obama 34 delegates short of the 2025 needed. But then the remaining superdelegates will weigh in and Obama would only need approximately 34 of the 158 remaining superdelegates which is only 22%. Looks like a slam dunk for Obama.

However, the Clinton campaign's "Hail Mary" is that when the DNC credentials committee meets on May 31st, they somehow resolve the Florida and Michigan situation in a manner that is overwhelmingly in Clinton's favor. They will also continue to press their case that Clinton won the majority of the popular vote which is a good argument but is not currently used to determine the democratic party nominee.

By adding these two states, the majority of the delegates needed becomes 2209 and sometimes you will hear 2210. In order for Clinton to reach this figure she would need to win 410 of the new 610 remaining total delegates or 67%. Obama would need to win 250 of the 610 or 41%. The Clinton's campaign other hope would be that she won at least 60% and then neither of the candidates would have the 2209 or 2210 needed delegates. This would then lead to a broker-ed Democratic Party convention in August - don't look for this to happen.

The Clinton campaign should not count on the above scenario. Her own campaign adviser, Terry McAuliffe who is a former chair of the DNC stated when on "Meet the Press" recently, the most the DNC can sanction is half of the delegates. Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan and no candidate campaigned in these two states per agreement with the DNC.

So look to see a compromise solution to the seating of delegates from these two states on the 31st. It is also becoming clear that Clinton will formally withdraw within a week of the last primaries on June 3rd or even better yet, for the benefit of the Democratic Party, withdraw in a speech the night of June 3rd. She will be able to say she worked hard to include Michigan, Florida, and voters from every state in the process. It's been an historic primary with a African-American and Woman candidate and now it is time to unite to ensure the end of a continuation of the failed policies of the President George W. Bush administration.

Although this Democratic Presidential primary has exposed many shortcomings in the nomination process, it has been one of the most exciting primaries ever. Democratic voters have turned out in record numbers from across the country making it be known that it is time for a change.

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