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Monday, October 18, 2010

Democrats in Danger of Losing House and Senate

George Wenschhof

With only two weeks to go until the mid term elections, most political analysts agree the Republicans will win a majority of seats in the House. Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats to gain control of the House and as of today, it looks like they will have a net gain closer to 50 seats.

This would mean the removal of Nancy Pelosi (D-Calf.) as Speaker of the House with Representative John Boehner (R-Ohio), the favorite to be elected the next House Speaker. Pelosi is the first woman elected as Speaker of the House. has the House race currently at 181 Democrats, 212 Republicans with 42 races too close to call. has it more favorable to Democrats with Democrats at 204, Republicans at 203 and 28 races too close to call.

All 435 seats in the House are up for election and 218 are needed for a majority.

In spite of President Obama and the First Lady stumping for candidates, Democratic voters are not as fired up as they were in the 2008 presidential election and younger voters are not expected to turn out in the same numbers.

The Senate, once considered to be safe for the Democrats, is now seriously in play. Twelve of the 37 Senate seats up for election are still in play. has it currently at Democrats - 51, Republicans - 48 with 1 tied. has it at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 too close to call.

Look to see Democrats hand on to a very slim majority in the Senate with a total of 52-53 seats. Illinois is a strong Democratic state and if democrats lose this seat, odds are they will also lose the majority in the Senate. Boxer and Manchin will hang on to win in California and W. Virginia. In Nevada, Reid will manage a win against tea party favorite; Sharron Angle. Russ Feingold, a favorite of liberals is gone in Wisconsin and Benett looks to lose Colorado.

Don't be surprised if Democrats, after winning a majority, replace Harry Reid as Majority Leader.

Below are the twelve Senate races still in play.

New Hampshire - Kelly Ayotte (R) - 49%, Paul Hodes (D) - 40%
Connecticut - Richard Blumenthal (D) - 51%, Linda McMahon (R) - 44%
West Virginia - Joe Manchin (D) - 47%, John Raese (R) - 44%
Kentucky - Rand Paul (R) - 46%, Jack Conway (D) - 39%
Illinois - Alexi Giannoulias - 39%, Mark Kirk (R) - 39%
Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) - 50%, Russ Feinberg (D) - 44%
Missouri - Roy Blount (R) - 51%, Robin Carnahan (D) - 42%
Colorado - Ken Buck (R) - 47%, Michael Benett - (D) - 45%
Washington - Patti Murray - 50%, Dino Rossi - (R) - 45%
Nevada - Sharron Angle (R) - 48%, Harry Reid (D) - 47%
California - Barbara Boxer (D) - 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) - 46%
Alaska - Joe Miller (R) - 35%, Lisa Murkowski (I) - 34%, Scott McAdams (D) - 27%

After, the mid term elections, parity will be on display in the House and Senate. Most likely, Republicans will hold a slim majority in the House and Democrats will hold a slim majority in the Senate.

Voters have to hope for cooperation and consensus building for otherwise, look to see two years of gridlock in Washington.

Look to see centrist elected officials gain in clout as voters will tire of the liberal and conservative extremes. The Democratic caucus most likely to gain in influence will be the (DLC) Democratic Leadership Council, which was started during the Clinton administration.

For the next two Mondays, I will update the race for the House and the Senate.


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